---
id:
aliases: []
title: 2026-01-30
tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/draft
  - type/daily
dg-publish: true
---
# 2026-01-30

## 2026-01-30 08:44

Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]].

I really would like to implement timestamped notes,
especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies.

Only the lack of plugin support stops me.

## 2026-01-30 09:06

I tried the Smart Connections community plugin.
I can't imagine who it could be useful for.
It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content,
which means that every daily note is connected to every other.

## 2026-01-30 13:42

Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one,
I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve,
rather than forget about it (as I am won to do).
See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]].

Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine
caters to a class of people I find bizarre,
those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort
just for the marginal benefit
of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people.
Instead they get to take out their phone,
find and open the light switch app,
and touch a virtual light switch
because the routines they programmed were too conservative.

Human or software,
an assistant without agency and the will to contradict you is worthless.
If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions
exceeds the effort to perform them,
you will always do the task yourself.

## 2026-01-30 16:29

### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)

> [!info]
> Pierre-Simon Laplace

If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations,
the probability the event will occur in the next observation
is given by:

$$
\frac{1+m}{2+n}
$$

### Rule of Five

The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%.
The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples
_don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$,
equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin
$n$ times in a row.

There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population
is between the smallest and largest values
in any random sample of five from that population.

## 2026-01-30 18:33

Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory,
to clean my house while working from home,
even after returning from work on-site?
Why again does that feeling of necessity
persist even into the evening,
when I would normally be home anyway,
but unable to summon the will to do anything
about rapidly growing piles of dirty dishes and clothes?
