---
id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-0400
title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34
tags:
  - status/draft
  - topic/estimating
date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00
daily: "[[2026-03-20]]"
---
# 2026-03-20 11:05:34

## The Delphi Method

> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)
> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique
> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE),
> is a structured communication technique, or method,
> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method
> that relies on a panel of experts.

> [!quote]
> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

To my knowledge,
neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]]
mention the Delphi method specifically,
but they specifically warn against this premise.

It ought to be permissible in conversation
to submit potentially relevant factors,
but arguments on the impact of those factors
will quickly spoil the estimate.
