---
id: 2026-05-29T17:19:37-0400
title: 2026-05-29 17:19:37
tags: []
daily: "[[2026-05-29]]"
---
# 2026-05-29 17:19:37

I suspect that in general of [[conest]],
our assemblies are not intended to have fluff built in,
or that our preferred methods
are intended to include more material than necessary.
We prefer to tolerate the uncertainty, to retain the risk,
weighing it less than that of committing additional resources
to mitigation (estimating).

[[hubbard_2020_failure#Simple Risk Management]]
is perhaps the single most important section of Hubbard's
for breaking free of the confines of [[orthodox-construction-estimating]].

> It might seem that some extremely obvious risks
> can be managed without much of an assessment effort
> (e.g., implementing full backup and recovery
> at a data center that doesn't have it,
> installing security systems at a major jewelry store, etc.).
> But in most environments, there are numerous risks,
> each with one or more potential risk mitigation strategies
> and a limited number of resources.
> We have to assess not only the initial risks
> ==but also how much the risk would change==
> ==if various precautions were taken.==

Detailed takeoff is poor risk mitigation.
