---
id: uncertainty
aliases: []
tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/incomplete
  - topic/risk
  - type/encyclopedia
title: Uncertainty
dg-publish: true
---
# Uncertainty

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## TALK

## TODO

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The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes.

## Information

In statistical inference and [[strategy]],
**information** is the resolution of uncertainty.

[[value-of-information]]

## Types of Uncertainty

### Aleatory Uncertainty

> [!info] Also Known As
> * statistical uncertainty
> * stochastic uncertainty
> * random error

Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away.

### Epistemic Uncertainty

> [!info] Also Known As
> * systematic uncertainty
> * model uncertainty

Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge,
and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]].

Under Bayesian statistics,
all uncertainty is epistemic.

## See Also

* [Uncertainty analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_analysis)
* [Uncertainty quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification)
* [Propagation of uncertainty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty)
* [Sensitivity analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis)