---
id: 2026-05-01T20:37:29-0400
title: 2026-05-01 20:37:29
tags: []
daily: "[[2026-05-01]]"
---
# 2026-05-01 20:37:29

Earlier [[2026-05-01|today]]
while editing [[orthodox-construction-estimating]]
my frustration with the term "detailed takeoff" was reignited
and I searched in vain for the term describing its type:

> a name which presupposes some quality of the subject
> which is not inherent to it.[^1]

[^1]: "Detailed takeoff" is more a victim of the common positive connotation of "detailed",
    which seems to exist for all adjectives synonymous in the same context like "precise".
    The common connotation is what's frustrating, I suppose.
    Surely everyone has seen the comparison of the targets
    and knows that precision says nothing meaningful about performance.

My search came up empty,
which didn't surprise me,
I've never cured a case of [lethologica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tip_of_the_tongue)
with Google or LLM's.
(but I keep trying)

Later I found the answer in [[merrow_2022_contract-strategies]]:
Merrow regrets the relevance implied
by the [_value-laden_](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/value-laden) term
[[statistical-significance]].

***

It is said often
that [[construction-estimating]] in some or all part art,
not wholly science.
This attitude is a coping mechanism
excusing our acceptance of a deeply flawed status quo,
and our unwillingness to look for answers
to questions that our methods have begged for decades.

Due to obstacles discussed in [[kahneman_2011_thinking]]
repeated in [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
construction estimating as a profession
suffers from poor conditions for natural improvement of [[estimator-calibration]],
namely delayed and uninformative feedback.
As a consequence,
decisions are made on [[gut-feel]] at best,
and superstition at worst.
The suitability of estimating methods
is judged based on [value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_(ethics))[^2]
and [aesthetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aesthetics).
rather than [empirical evidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_evidence).

[^2]: [Value judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_judgment)

***

What makes a good estimator
(besides their ability to click all the little circles on a drawing)
is their judgement, the quality of their assumptions.
Herein lies the paradox of [[orthodox-construction-estimating]]:
_assumptions are only necessitated by its incompatibility with [[uncertainty]]._

***

Construction estimating is pure science,
acceptability is the art.
