---
id: 2026-01-30T16:29:00-0500
title: 2026-01-30 16:29:??
tags: []
daily: "[[2026-01-30]]"
---
# 2026-01-30 16:29:??

## New Statistics Concepts

[[statistics]] topics researched while reading
[[hubbard_2025_project-management]]:

### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS)

> [!info]
> Pierre-Simon Laplace

If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations,
the probability the event will occur in the next observation
is given by:

$$
\frac{1+m}{2+n}
$$

### "Rule of Five"

> Hubbard et al. speak of this "rule"
> as if it's well known by that name,
> but I can't corroborate that.

The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%.
The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples
_don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$,
equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin
$n$ times in a row.

There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population
is between the smallest and largest values
in any random sample of five from that population.
