diff --git a/2026-01-07.md b/2026-01-07.md index a1841fc..ad7cfd5 100644 --- a/2026-01-07.md +++ b/2026-01-07.md @@ -13,9 +13,21 @@ tags: ## 2026-01-07 06:41 > [!quote] _The Shadow of the Torturer_, Chapter 17: "The Challenge" -> No intellect is needed to see those figures who wait beyond the void of death---every child is aware of them, blazing with glories dark or bright, wrapped in authority older than the universe. They are the stuff of our earliest dreams, as of our dying visions. Rightly we feel our lives guided by them, and rightly too we feel how little we matter to them, the builders of the unimaginable, the fighters of wars beyond the totality of existence. +> No intellect is needed to see those figures who wait beyond the void of death--- +> every child is aware of them, blazing with glories dark or bright, +> wrapped in authority older than the universe. +> They are the stuff of our earliest dreams, as of our dying visions. +> Rightly we feel our lives guided by them, +> and rightly too we feel how little we matter to them, +> the builders of the unimaginable, +> the fighters of wars beyond the totality of existence. > -> The difficulty lies in learning that we ourselves encompass forces equally great. We say, "I will," and "I will not," and imagine ourselves (though we obey the orders of some prosaic person every day) our own masters, when the truth is that our masters are sleeping. One wakes within us and we are ridden like beasts, though the rider is but some hitherto unguessed part of ourselves. +> The difficulty lies in learning that we ourselves encompass forces equally great. +> We say, "I will," and "I will not," and imagine ourselves +> (though we obey the orders of some prosaic person every day) our own masters, +> when the truth is that our masters are sleeping. +> One wakes within us and we are ridden like beasts, +> though the rider is but some hitherto unguessed part of ourselves. ## 2026-01-07 10:03 diff --git a/2026-01-09.md b/2026-01-09.md index 13cc4c7..3eb9f51 100644 --- a/2026-01-09.md +++ b/2026-01-09.md @@ -84,3 +84,29 @@ accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$. $C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter) decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value. $t>0$ is time until the final payment. + +> ![503x480](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png) +> +> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter) +> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter). + +## 2026-01-09 16:28 + +### Occam's razor + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * the principle of parsimony +> * the law of parsimony + +recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. +Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian. + +> _Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem_ +> ("Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity") + +> Of two competing theories, +> the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred." + +> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#4.2 The Role of Parameters]] +> The principle of parsimony states that the simplest model +> that adequately reflects reality should be used. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/2026-01-10.md b/2026-01-10.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e0a8874 --- /dev/null +++ b/2026-01-10.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: "2026-01-10" +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/daily +--- +# 2026-01-10 + +## 2026-01-10 08:42 + +I've been writing a C# library based on the specifications of [[music-theory-as-code]], +but the problem of parsing overwhelms me whenever I think about implementation. + +I'd like to try to get [ANTLR](https://github.com/antlr/antlr4) working, +first a simple template solution, +then a music notation parser for [[music-theory-as-code]], +and ultimately experimenting with use for [[estimating-as-code]]. + +[vanilla C# target](https://github.com/antlr/antlr4/blob/master/doc/csharp-target.md) +[alt C# target](https://github.com/tunnelvisionlabs/antlr4cs) diff --git a/actuarial-science.md b/actuarial-science.md index 8235b48..e029621 100644 --- a/actuarial-science.md +++ b/actuarial-science.md @@ -25,6 +25,8 @@ given [[uncertainty|uncertain]] cost. * [time preference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_preference) * [present value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Present_value) +* [Value at risk (VaR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_at_risk) + ## Resources [[loss-models]]