diff --git a/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-linter/data.json b/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-linter/data.json index 50b217b..def0b4a 100644 --- a/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-linter/data.json +++ b/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-linter/data.json @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ }, "insert-yaml-attributes": { "enabled": true, - "text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntags: []" + "text-to-insert": "id:\naliases: []\ntitle:\ntags: []" }, "move-tags-to-yaml": { "enabled": false, @@ -52,10 +52,10 @@ "sort-order": "Ascending Alphabetical" }, "yaml-key-sort": { - "enabled": false, - "yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "", + "enabled": true, + "yaml-key-priority-sort-order": "id\naliases\ntitle\ntags", "priority-keys-at-start-of-yaml": true, - "yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "None" + "yaml-sort-order-for-other-keys": "Ascending Alphabetical" }, "yaml-timestamp": { "enabled": false, diff --git a/1960-04-04_durant-daily-democrat.md b/1960-04-04_durant-daily-democrat.md index 51332e6..836e146 100644 --- a/1960-04-04_durant-daily-democrat.md +++ b/1960-04-04_durant-daily-democrat.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: type: article title: Rev. William Alexander And Wife Killed In Airplane Crash url: https://gateway.okhistory.org/ark:/67531/metadc2193346/ -author: Peterson, Robert H. +authors: + - Peterson, Robert H. journal: Durant Daily Democrat (Durant, Okla.) volume: 59 number: 172 diff --git a/2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering.md b/2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering.md index e4d4672..8d6b4c4 100644 --- a/2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering.md +++ b/2025-07-18_estimating-isnt-engineering.md @@ -21,14 +21,14 @@ Specifically, they took issue with having to This puzzled me because the examples they gave sounded like stereotypical estimation problems. - +%% TODO: Include example %% - +%% It's not engineering to budget for the most likely case. diff --git a/2025-12-08.md b/2025-12-08.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2dd151c --- /dev/null +++ b/2025-12-08.md @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/daily +title: 2025-12-08 +--- +# 2025-12-08 + +## 2025-12-08 11:03 + +I hate to come off as pedantic, +but I care a lot about standardized terminology +because spending a few minutes to be more thoughtful in specification +can save hundreds of people cumulative hours of confusion. +And the problem with standardization, of course, +is that sometimes it works, +and undoing years of poor conditioning is... not easy. diff --git a/Leslie_1968_Gregg-Notehand.md b/Leslie_1968_Gregg-Notehand.md index e45e685..57d4995 100644 --- a/Leslie_1968_Gregg-Notehand.md +++ b/Leslie_1968_Gregg-Notehand.md @@ -8,7 +8,11 @@ tags: - destiny/permanent title: Gregg Notehand subtitle: A Personal-Use Shorthand & Integrated Instruction in How to Make Notes -author: Leslie, Louis A. AND Zoubek, Charles E. AND Poe, Roy W. AND Deese, James +authors: + - Leslie, Louis A. + - Zoubek, Charles E. + - Poe, Roy W. + - Deese, James edition: Second year: 1968 publisher: McGraw-Hill, Inc. diff --git a/accubid-setup.md b/accubid-setup.md index 8a6a473..56e228c 100644 --- a/accubid-setup.md +++ b/accubid-setup.md @@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ Replace the `Area`s with those created in [[project-setup#Setup WBS]] ##### Create Unit Typicals - +%% TODO: %% ##### Create Helper Typicals diff --git a/breakdown-objects.md b/breakdown-objects.md index dee7d51..2473213 100644 --- a/breakdown-objects.md +++ b/breakdown-objects.md @@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ equipment of the same type is assumed to be evenly spaced. ## Location vs. Scope - +%%TODO:%% ![[location-vs-scope.excalidraw]] diff --git a/cruel-mother.md b/cruel-mother.md index 0956f03..3c7a4de 100644 --- a/cruel-mother.md +++ b/cruel-mother.md @@ -1,3 +1,10 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: The Cruel Mother (Traditional) +tags: + - exclude-from-word-count +--- # The Cruel Mother (Traditional) ## Lyrics diff --git a/diagrams.md b/diagrams.md index 3a0d9ac..d39c0c3 100644 --- a/diagrams.md +++ b/diagrams.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ title: Diagrams ```mermaid graph LR -A[README] --> B +A[README] %% B class A internal-link; ``` diff --git a/distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md b/distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md index 2a37287..f3d2997 100644 --- a/distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md +++ b/distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md @@ -26,41 +26,37 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff ### FACR to Every Elevator Shaft -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...` - -Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...` + * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_ + * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_ ### FACR to Every Staircase -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...` - -Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length and Count +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...` + * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_ + * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_ ### Stairwell Riser Every 2 Floors -> [!info] Takeoff -> * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels" -> -> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...` -> * **Count** = Each stairwell +1. * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels" + + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...` + * **Count** = Each stairwell ### FACR to Electric Room -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...` - -Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...` + * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_ ### Electric Room Riser to Every Floor -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...` - -Takeoff in every Electric Room +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...` + * **Count** = Each Electric Room ### Top 2H Rated Room To Roof -> [!info] Takeoff -> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...` -> * **Length** = 15ft or height of ceiling on last building level +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...` + * **Length** = Top level ceiling height to structure (minimum 15ft) ## Horizontal @@ -68,6 +64,5 @@ Takeoff in every Electric Room > Usually only for cellular DAS. > Confirm takeoff requirement with [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]]. -> [!info] Takeoff -> 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...` -> * **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...` + * **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage diff --git a/emergency-communications-systems.md b/emergency-communications-systems.md index 2264a8e..b8cb0c7 100644 --- a/emergency-communications-systems.md +++ b/emergency-communications-systems.md @@ -33,8 +33,8 @@ would be as nonsensical as excluding _the_ unit subfeed. > [!aside] > There's an argument to be made > that _the_ two-way communication system (singular) -> is legitimate shorthand for the super-system -> that includes all ICC two-way communication _systems_ (plural), +> is legitimate shorthand for the "super-system" +> that includes all ICC defined two-way communication _systems_ (plural), > and I'd tend to agree, but the distinction should be noted. All systems currently listed in this note diff --git a/estimating-culture.md b/estimating-culture.md index 9a5729e..8d295a7 100644 --- a/estimating-culture.md +++ b/estimating-culture.md @@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ even those that could be done by one person. In other industries, estimating is treated appropriately like a data science. In ours, [[gut-feel]] dominates decision making. - +%% TODO: %% [[estimator-calibration]] [[ai-in-estimating]] diff --git a/fire-alarm-takeoff.md b/fire-alarm-takeoff.md index dfb94ae..49c6948 100644 --- a/fire-alarm-takeoff.md +++ b/fire-alarm-takeoff.md @@ -31,19 +31,19 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary. ### Fire Command Center -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END` ### Generator Room -`Area` = Same as FACR +1. `Area` = Same as FACR -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...` + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...` ### Fire Pump Room -`Area` = Same as FACR +1. `Area` = Same as FACR -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...` + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...` ### Elevator Control Rooms @@ -51,29 +51,23 @@ Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary. For each Elevator Control Room (ECR): -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...` + * **Count** = 1 -* **Count** = 1 - -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...` - -* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR. - * Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft). +2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...` + * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR. + * Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft). ### Elevator Shafts -`Area` = Same as FACR - For each elevator shaft: -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...` + * **Count** = 1 -* **Count** = 1 - -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...` - -* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft. -* Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft). +2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...` + * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft. + * Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft). > [!important] Counting Elevator Shafts > Adjacent elevators may be in the same or parallel shafts. @@ -95,10 +89,9 @@ For each elevator shaft: For each stairwell: -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...` - -* **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell. -* Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft). +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...` + * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell. + * Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft). ## Terminal Cabinets @@ -107,15 +100,19 @@ For each stairwell: * _Garden Style, High Density:_ (2) 1"C * _High Rise:_ (2) 2"C -Horizontal: +1. Horizontal: -> * `Area` = Same as FACR -> * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms + * `Area` = Same as FACR + + `... HORIZONTAL RUN` + * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms -Vertical: +2. Vertical: -> * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" -> * **Length** = 10ft + * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" + + `... RISER` + * **Length** = 10ft ## Annunciator Panels @@ -123,13 +120,13 @@ Vertical: > * Fire Alarm Annunciator (FAA) > * Fire Alarm Annunciator Panel (FAAP) -> `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...` -> * **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby + 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`ANNUNCIATORS`/`REMOTE SERIAL ANNUNCIATOR ...` + * **Length** = Length measured from the FACR to FAA or Lobby ## Central Monitoring Loop > [!important] -> Garden Style only. +> Garden Style only. > Fire Alarm Control Panels from each building will send a signal to a central location. > @@ -141,14 +138,14 @@ Vertical: ### Smoke Detectors -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...` _Design Build:_ Count every stairwell at every level. ### Pull Stations -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...` _Design Build:_ Count every stairwell at every level @@ -163,7 +160,7 @@ Count every stairwell at every level. ### Magnetic Door Holders -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...` _Design Build:_ Count 2 for every set of double doors. @@ -171,9 +168,9 @@ Count 2 for every set of double doors. ### Horns, Speakers, and Strobes -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`INDOOR HORN STROBE - ...` -_Design Build:_ +_Design Build (method 1):_ * Count every 75 ft, * measure with circles on Bluebeam * or divide relevant SF area by 4415 @@ -181,29 +178,18 @@ _Design Build:_ * every elevator lobby, * and every BOH room on the first floor and garage levels. -_Design Build (alt):_ +_Design Build (alternative method):_ * 15ft from end of corridor, * then every 50ft -## Firefighter Phone System - -* firefighter phone jacks -* fire warden station -* fire phone cabinet - -Communicates directly with FACR. -Not related to responder radio. - -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...` - ## Fire Smoke Dampers (FSD's) For each damper, take off both -`System` = "FA - Fire Alarm" +1. * `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm" -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...` + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE OUTPUT RELAY MODULE ...` -and `System` = "EL - Electrical" +2. * `System` = "EL - Electrical" -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...` + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`FSD ...` diff --git a/functional-labor-factoring.md b/functional-labor-factoring.md index 8759478..7a96539 100644 --- a/functional-labor-factoring.md +++ b/functional-labor-factoring.md @@ -26,14 +26,14 @@ laboring is the most interesting and rewarding part of the job. Discussions of human factors are far more engaging than those of statistical analysis. - +%% Tables of labor factors given certain conditions can be converted to functions using regressions. diff --git a/game-theory.md b/game-theory.md index 502a34f..94bcbad 100644 --- a/game-theory.md +++ b/game-theory.md @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ title: Game Theory [[auction-theory|Auction theory]] is a subset of game theory - +%% TODO: %% #### Reverse Auction @@ -27,13 +27,13 @@ bid prices are hidden from the bidders. [[uncertainty#Information]] - +%% TODO: %% ## Terminology ### "Solved" Games - +%% TODO: %% ### Symmetry diff --git a/homelab.md b/homelab.md index 65bf71a..64a1c9b 100644 --- a/homelab.md +++ b/homelab.md @@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ title: Homelab Today I worked to get LostLenore, my laptop Ubuntu Server test machine in a state to host web apps. - +%% This motivation was spurred by the idea that I could run regular expensive processes on the server and provide API calls to get the data when I need it. diff --git a/hubbard_2020_failure.md b/hubbard_2020_failure.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0fab810 --- /dev/null +++ b/hubbard_2020_failure.md @@ -0,0 +1,252 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: "The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition" +tags: + - authorship/other + - exclude-from-word-count + - status/incomplete + - topic/risk + - type/media +authors: Douglas W. Hubbard +publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. +type: book +year: 2020 +--- +# The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It, Second Edition + +%% +This note, with the exception of comments like this one +(reserved for notes on transcription) +consists only of content from the text. +For commentary see the companion +[[the-failure-of-risk-management]]. +%% + +## Part One: An Introduction To The Crisis + +### Chapter 1: Healthy Skepticism For Risk Management + +#### A "Common Mode Failure" + +#### Key Definitions: Risk Management And Some Related Terms + +#### What Failure Means + +#### Scope And Objectives Of This Book + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 2: A Summary Of The Current State Of Risk Management + +#### A Short And Entirely-Too-Superficial History Of Risk + +#### Current State Of Risk Management In The Organization + +#### Current Risks And How They Are Assessed + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 3: How Do We Know What Works? + +#### Anecdote: The Risk Of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing + +#### Why It's Hard To Know What Works + +#### An Assessment Of Self-Assessments + +#### Potential Objective Evaluations Of Risk Management + +#### What We May Find + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model + +#### A Simple One-For-One Substitution + +#### The Expert As The Instrument + +#### A Quick Overview Of "Uncertainty Math" + +#### Establishing Risk Tolerance + +#### Supporting The Decision: A Return On Mitigation + +#### Making The Straw Man Better + +#### Note + +## Part Two: Why It's Broken + +### Chapter 5: The "Four Horsemen" Of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts To Prevent An Apocalypse + +#### Actuaries + +#### War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever + +#### Economists + +#### Management Consulting: How A Power Tie And A Good Pitch Changed Risk Management + +#### Comparing The Horsemen + +#### Major Risk Management Problems To Be Addressed + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 6: An Ivory Tower Of Babel: Fixing The Confusion About Risk + +#### The Frank Knight Definition + +#### Knight's Influence In Finance And Project Management + +#### A Construction Engineering Definition + +#### Risk As Expected Loss + +#### Defining Risk Tolerance + +#### Defining Probability + +#### Enriching The Lexicon + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 7: The Limits Of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know About Uncertainty + +#### The Right Stuff: How A Group Of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis + +#### Mental Math: Why We Shouldn't Trust The Numbers In Our Heads + +#### "Catastrophic" Overconfidence + +#### The Mind Of "Aces": Possible Causes And Consequences Of Overconfidence + +#### Inconsistencies And Artifacts: What Shouldn't Matter Does + +#### Answers To Calibration Tests + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method And Why It Doesn't Work + +#### A Few Examples Of Scores And Matrices + +#### Does That Come In "Medium"?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty + +#### Unintended Effects Of Scales: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You + +#### Different But Similar-Sounding Methods And Similar But Different-Sounding Methods + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 9: Bears, Swans And Other Obstacles To Improved Risk Management + +#### Algorithm Aversion And A Key Fallacy + +#### Algorithms Versus Experts: Generalizing The Findings + +#### A Note About Black Swans + +#### Major Mathematical Misconceptions + +#### We're Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, But Not Here + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 10: Where Even The Quants Go Wrong: Common And Fundamental Errors In Quantitative Models + +#### A Survey Of Analysts Using Monte Carlos + +#### The Risk Paradox + +#### Financial Models And The Shape Of Disaster: Why Normal Isn't So Normal + +#### Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem With Correlations + +#### The Measurement Inversion + +#### Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated? + +#### Notes + +## Part Three: How To Fix It + +### Chapter 11: Starting With What Works + +#### Speak The Language + +#### Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated + +#### Using Data For Initial Benchmarks + +#### Checking The Substitution + +#### Simple Risk Management + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 12: Improving The Model + +#### Empirical Inputs + +#### Adding Detail To The Model + +#### Advanced Methods For Improving Expert's Subjective Estimates + +#### Other Monte Carlo Tools + +#### Self-Examinations For Modelers + +#### Notes + +### Chapter 13: The Risk Community: Intra- And Extra-Organizational Issues Of Risk Management + +#### Getting Organized + +#### Managing The Model + +#### Incentives For A Calibrated Culture + +#### Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions Beyond Your Office Building + +##### Growing the Profession + +Of all the professions in risk management, +that of the actuary is the only one +that is actually a legally recognized profession. +Becoming an actuary requires a demonstration of proficiency +through several standardized tests. +It also means adopting a code of professional ethics +enforced by some licensing body. +When actuaries sign their name +to the Statement of Actuarial Opinion of an insurance company, +they put their license on the line. +As with doctors and lawyers, +if they lose their license, they cannot just get another job next door. +The industry of modelers of uncertainties outside of insurance +could benefit greatly from this level of professional standards. + +Standards organizations, +government affiliated and otherwise, +have always been a key part of what makes a profession a profession. +But standards organizations such as PMI, NIST, and others +are all guilty of explicitly promoting +the ineffectual methods previously debunked. +The scoring methods developed by these institutions +should be disposed of altogether. +These organizations should stay out of the business +of designing risk analysis methods +until they begin to involve people with quantitative decision analysis backgrounds +in their standards-development process. +Professionals should take charge of the direction their profession evolves +by insisting the standards move in this direction. + +#### Practical Observations From Trustmark + +#### Final Thoughts On Quantitative Models And Better Decisions + +#### Notes + +## Appendix: Additional Calibration Tests And Answers diff --git a/klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models.md b/klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e506f5e --- /dev/null +++ b/klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models.md @@ -0,0 +1,584 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition" +tags: + - authorship/other + - destiny/permanent/entry-point + - exclude-from-word-count + - status/incomplete + - topic/risk + - type/media +authors: + - Stuart A. Klugman + - Harry H. Panjer + - Gordon E. Willmot +publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. +series: Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics +type: book +year: 2019 +--- +# Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition + +%% +This note, with the exception of comments like this one +(reserved for notes on transcription) +consists only of content from the text. +For commentary see the companion [[loss-models]]. +%% + +## Part I Introduction + +### 1. Modeling + +#### 1.1 The Model-Based Approach + +##### 1.1.1 The Modeling Process + +The model-based approach +should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem. +Many problems in actuarial science +involve the building of a mathematical model +that can be used to forecast or predict insurance costs in the future. + +##### 1.1.2 The Modeling Advantage + +#### 1.2 The Organization of This Book + +### 2. Random Variables + +#### 2.1 Introduction + +#### 2.2 Key Functions and Four Models + +##### 2.2.1 Exercises + +### 3. Basic Distributional Quantities + +#### 3.1 Moments + +##### 3.1.1 Exercises + +#### 3.2 Percentiles + +##### 3.2.1 Exercises + +#### 3.3 Generating Functions and Sums of Random Variables + +##### 3.3.1 Exercises + +#### 3.4 Tails of Distributions + +##### 3.4.1 Classification Based on Moments + +##### 3.4.2 Comparison Based on Limiting Tail + +##### 3.4.3 Classification Based on the Hazard Rate Function + +##### 3.4.4 Classification Based on the Mean Excess Loss Function The mean excess + +##### 3.4.5 Equilibrium Distributions and Tail Behavior + +##### 3.4.6 Exercises + +#### 3.5 Measures of Risk + +##### 3.5.1 Introduction + +##### 3.5.2 Risk Measures and Coherence + +##### 3.5.3 Value at Risk + +##### 3.5.4 Tail Value of Risk + +##### 3.5.5 Exercises + +## Part II Actuarial Models + +### 4. Characteristics Of Actuarial Models + +#### 4.1 Introduction + +#### 4.2 The Role of Parameters + +##### 4.2.1 Parametric and Scale Distributions + +##### 4.2.2 Parametric Distribution Families + +##### 4.2.3 Finite Mixture Distributions + +##### 4.2.4 Data-Dependent Distributions + +##### 4.2.5 Exercises + +### 5. Continuous Models + +#### 5.1 Introduction + +#### 5.2 Creating New Distributions + +##### 5.2.1 Multiplication by a Constant + +##### 5.2.2 Raising to a Power + +##### 5.2.3 Exponentiation + +##### 5.2.4 Mixing + +##### 5.2.5 Frailty Models + +##### 5.2.6 Splicing + +##### 5.2.7 Exercises + +#### 5.3 Selected Distributions and Their Relationships + +##### 5.3.1 Introduction + +##### 5.3.2 Two Parametric Families + +##### 5.3.3 Limiting Distributions + +##### 5.3.4 Two Heavy-Tailed Distributions + +##### 5.3.5 Exercises + +#### 5.4 The Linear Exponential Family + +##### 5.4.1 Exercises + +### 6. Discrete Distributions + +#### 6.1 Introduction + +##### 6.1.1 Exercise + +#### 6.2 The Poisson Distribution + +#### 6.3 The Negative Binomial Distribution + +#### 6.4 The Binomial Distribution + +#### 6.5 The (a,b) Class + +##### 6.5.1 Exercises + +#### 6.6 Truncation and Modification at zero + +##### 6.6.1 Exercises + +### 7. Advanced Discrete Distributions + +#### 7.1 Compound Frequency Distributions + +##### 7.1.1 Exercises + +#### 7.2 Further Properties of the Compound Poisson Class + +##### 7.2.1 Exercises + +#### 7.3 Mixed-Frequency Distributions + +##### 7.3.1 The General Mixed-Frequency Distribution + +##### 7.3.2 Mixed Poisson Distributions + +##### 7.3.3 Exercises + +#### 7.4 The Effect of Exposure on Frequency + +#### 7.5 An Inventory of Discrete Distributions + +##### 7.5.1 Exercises + +### 8. Frequency And Severity With Coverage Modifications + +#### 8.1 Introduction + +#### 8.2 Deductibles + +##### 8.2.1 Exercises + +#### 8.3 The Loss Elimination Ratio and the Effect of Inflation for Ordinary Deductibles + +##### 8.3.1 Exercise + +#### 8.4 Policy Limits + +##### 8.4.1 Exercises + +#### 8.5 Coinsurance, Deductibles, and Limits + +##### 8.5.1 Exercises + +#### 8.6 The Impact of Deductibles on Claim Frequency + +##### 8.6.1 Exercises + +### 9. Aggregate Loss Models + +#### 9.1 Introduction + +##### 9.1.1 Exercises + +#### 9.2 Model Choices + +##### 9.2.1 Exercises + +#### 9.3 The Compound Model for Aggregate Claims + +##### 9.3.1 Probabilities and Moments + +##### 9.3.2 Stop-Loss Insurance + +##### 9.3.3 The Tweedle Distribution + +##### 9.3.4 Exercises + +#### 9.4 Analytic Results + +##### 9.4.1 Exercises + +#### 9.5 Computing the Aggregate Claims Distribution + +#### 9.6 The Recursive Method + +##### 9.6.1 Applications to Compound Frequency Models + +##### 9.6.2 Underflow/Overflow Problems + +##### 9.6.3 Numerical Stability + +##### 9.6.4 Continuous Severity + +##### 9.6.5 Constructing Arithmetic Distributions + +##### 9.6.6 Exercises + +#### 9.7 The Impact of Individual Policy Modifications on Aggregate Payments + +##### 9.7.1 Exercises + +#### 9.8 The individual Risk Model + +##### 9.8.1 The Model + +##### 9.8.2 Parametric Approximation + +##### 9.8.3 Compound Poisson Approximation + +##### 9.8.4 Exercises + +## Part III Mathematical Statistics + +### 10. Introduction To Mathematical Statistics + +#### 10.1 Introduction and Four Data Sets + +#### 10.2 Point Estimation + +##### 10.2.1 Introduction + +##### 10.2.2 Measures of Quality + +##### 10.2.3 Exercises + +#### 10.3 Interval Estimation + +##### 10.3.1 Exercises + +#### 10.4 The Construction of Parametric Estimators + +##### 10.4.1 The Method of Moments and Percentile Matching + +##### 10.4.2 Exercises + +#### 10.5 Tests of Hypotheses + +##### 10.5.1 Exercise + +### 11. Maximum Likelihood Estimation + +#### 11.1 Introduction + +#### 11.2 Individual Data + +##### 11.2.1 Exercises + +#### 11.3 Grouped Data + +##### 11.3.1 Exercises + +#### 11.4 Truncated or Censored Data + +##### 11.4.1 Exercises + +#### 11.5 Variance and Interval Estimation for Maximum Likelihood Estimators + +##### 11.5.1 Exercises + +#### 11.6 Functions of Asymptotically Normal Estimators + +##### 11.6.1 Exercises + +#### 11.7 Nonnormal Confidence Intervals + +##### 11.7.1 Exercise + +### 12. Frequentist Estimation For Discrete Distributions + +#### 12.1 The Poisson Distribution + +#### 12.2 The Negative Binomial Distribution + +#### 12.3 The Binomial Distribution + +#### 12.4 The (a,b) Class + +#### 12.5 Compound Models + +#### 12.6 The Effect of Exposure on Maximum Likelihood Estimation + +#### 12.7 Exercises + +### 13. Bayesian Estimation + +#### 13.1 Definitions and Bayes' Theorem + +#### 13.2 Inference and Prediction + +##### 13.2.1 Exercises + +#### 13.3 Conjugate Prior Distributions and the Linear Exponential Family + +##### 13.3.1 Exercises + +#### 13.4 Computational Issues + +## Part IV Construction Of Models + +### 14. Construction Of Empirical Models + +#### 14.1 The Empirical Distribution + +#### 14.2 Empirical Distributions for Grouped Data + +##### 14.2.1 Exercises + +#### 14.3 Empirical Estimation with Right Censored Data + +##### 14.3.1 Exercises + +#### 14.4 Empirical Estimation of Moments + +##### 14.4.1 Exercises + +#### 14.5 Empirical Estimation with Left Truncated Data + +##### 14.5.1 Exercises + +#### 14.6 Kernel Density Models + +##### 14.6.1 Exercises + +#### 14.7 Approximations for large Data Sets + +##### 14.7.1 Introduction + +##### 14.7.2 Using Individual Data Points + +##### 14.7.3 Interval-Based Methods + +##### 14.7.4 Exercises + +#### 14.8 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Decrement Probabilities + +##### 14.8.1 Exercise + +#### 14.9 Estimation of Transition Intensities + +### 15. Model Selection + +#### 15.1 Introduction + +#### 15.2 Representations of the Data and Model + +#### 15.3 Graphical Comparison of the Density and Distribution Functions + +##### 15.3.1 Exercises + +#### 15.4 Hypothesis Tests + +##### 15.4.1 The Kolmogorov--Smirnov Test + +##### 15.4.2 The Anderson--Darling Test + +##### 15.4.3 The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test + +##### 15.4.4 The Likelihood Ratio Test + +##### 15.4.5 Exercises + +#### 15.5 Selecting a Model + +##### 15.5.1 Introduction + +##### 15.2.2 Judgement-Based Approaches + +##### 15.5.3 Score-Based Approaches + +##### 15.5.4 Exercises + +## Part V Credibility + +### 16. Introduction To Limited Fluctuation Credibility + +#### 16.1 Introduction + +#### 16.2 Limited Fluctuation Credibility Theory + +#### 16.3 Full Credibility + +#### 16.4 Partial Credibility + +#### 16.5 Problems with the Approach + +#### 16.6 Notes and References + +#### 16.7 Exercises + +### 17. Greatest Accuracy Credibility + +#### 17.1 Introduction + +#### 17.2 Conditional Distributions and Expectation + +#### 17.3 The Bayesian Methodology + +#### 17.4 The Credibility Premium + +#### 17.5 The Bühlmann Model + +#### 17.6 The Bühlmann--Straub Model + +#### 17.7 Exact Credibility + +#### 17.8 Notes and References + +#### 17.9 Exercises + +### 18. Empirical Bayes Parameter Estimation + +#### 18.1 Introduction + +#### 18.2 Nonparametric Estimation + +#### 18.3 Semiparametric Estimation + +#### 18.4 Notes and References + +#### 18.5 Exercises + +## Part VI Simulation + +### 19. Simulation + +#### 19.1 Basics of Simulation + +##### 19.1.1 The Simulation Approach + +##### 19.1.2 Exercises + +#### 19.2 Simulation for Specific Distributions + +##### 19.2.1 Discrete Mixtures + +##### 19.2.2 Time or Age of Death from a Life Table + +##### 19.2.3 Simulating from the (a,b) Class + +##### 19.2.4 Normal and Lognormal Distributions + +##### 19.2.5 Exercises + +#### 19.3 Determining the Sample Size + +##### 19.3.1 Exercises + +#### 19.4 Examples of Simulation in Actuarial Modeling + +##### 19.4.1 Aggregate Loss Calculations + +##### 19.4.2 Examples of Lack of Independence + +##### 19.4.3 Simulation Analysis of the Two Examples + +##### 19.4.4 The Use of Simulation to Determine Risk Measures + +##### 19.4.5 Statistical Analyses + +##### 19.4.6 Exercises + +## Appendix A An Inventory Of Continuous Distributions + +### A.1 Introduction + +### A.2 The Transformed Beta Family + +#### A.2.1 The Four-Parameter Distribution + +#### A.2.2 Three-Parameter Distributions + +#### A.2.3 Two-Parameter Distributions + +### A.3 The Transformed Gamma Family + +#### A.3.1 Three-Parameter Distributions + +#### A.3.2 Two-Parameter Distributions + +#### A.3.3 One-Parameter Distributions + +### A.4 Distributions For Large Losses + +#### A.4.1 Extreme Value Distributions + +#### A.4.2 Generalized Pareto Distributions + +### A.4.5 Other Distributions + +### A.4.6 Distributions With Finite Support + +## Appendix B An Inventory Of Discrete Distributions + +### B.1 Introduction + +### B.2 The (a,b,0) Class + +### B.3 The (a,b,1) Class + +#### B.3.1 The Zero-Truncated Subclass + +#### B.3.2 The Zero-Modified Subclass + +### B.4 The Compound Class + +#### B.4.1 Some Compound Distributions + +### B.5 A Hierarchy Of Discrete Distributions + +## Appendix C Frequency And Severity Relationships + +## Appendix D The Recursive Formula + +## Appendix E Discretization Of The Severity Distribution + +### E.1 The Method Of Rounding + +### E.2 Mean Preserving + +### E.3 Undiscretization Of A Discretized Distribution + +## References + +## Index diff --git a/loss-models.md b/loss-models.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cada612 --- /dev/null +++ b/loss-models.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +tags: + - authorship/original + - status/incomplete + - type/media-commentary + - topic/risk +title: "Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Fifth Edition" +--- +# _Loss Models_ + +This is the commentary companion to [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] + +> [!cite] 1.1 "The Model-Based Approach" +> The model-based approach +> should be considered in the context of the objectives of any given problem. diff --git a/misc-budgets-takeoff.md b/misc-budgets-takeoff.md index 93864b2..e828ccd 100644 --- a/misc-budgets-takeoff.md +++ b/misc-budgets-takeoff.md @@ -1,87 +1,77 @@ --- id: aliases: [] +title: Misc Budgets Takeoff tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - occupational/takeoff - status/draft - type/guide -title: Misc Budgets --- -# Misc Budgets +# Misc Budgets Takeoff + +* `Drawing` = "N/A" +* `System` = "EL - Electrical" ## Slab Deck -* `Drawing` = "N/A" -* `Area` = "Typical - ..." -* `System` = "EL - Electrical" +Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)` +* **Count** = 1 -Create `Area` Typicals for every concrete slab floor: +1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" + * 1 each level except roof + * _High Density:_ 1 per Section + * `Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common" -* 'All Building' - * 1 each level except roof - * _High Density:_ 1 per Section - -`Phase` = "Building - BOH, Storage & Common" - -* 'All Garage' - * 1 each level - -`Phase` = "Garage" - -In each Typical: - -* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`MISC PDI PRODUCT`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK & FEEDER`/`MISC MATERIAL - SLAB/DECK (NAILS, PAINT, TAPE, ETC = $250)` - * 1 Takeoff each Typical - * **Count** = 1 +2. * `Area` = "Typical - Garage All Levels" + * `Phase` = "Garage" ## Temporary Power & Lighting ### Temp Power -* `Area` = "2 - Site" -* `Phase` = "Temp Power" -* `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)" -* `BidItem` = "1 - Site" +1. * `Area` = "2 - Site" + * `Phase` = "Temp Power" + * `System` = "TPS - Temp Power Service (Site)" + * `BidItem` = "1 - Site" -* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE` + Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`TEMPORARY POWER - ... SERVICE` * **Count** = 1 -### Temp Lighting (Building) +### Temp Lighting -* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building" -* `Phase` = "Temp Power" -* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)" -* `BidItem` = "3 - Building" +1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Building" + * `Phase` = "Temp Power" + * `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)" + * `BidItem` = "3 - Building" -`ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/... + `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/... -_Garden Style:_ -* Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)` - * **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building + _Garden Style:_ + * Takeoff: .../`TEMPORARY POWER - T POLE (EACH)` + * **Count** = 1 per 150ft per building -_All others:_ -* Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)` - * **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF + _All others:_ + * Takeoff: .../`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)` + * **Count** = Building GSF = Total GSF - Garage GSF -### Temp Lighting (Garage) +1. * `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage" + * `Phase` = "Temp Power" + * `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)" + * `BidItem` = "2 - Garage" -* `Area` = "01 - Temp Power Distribution Garage" -* `Phase` = "Temp Power" -* `System` = "TPD - Temp Power Distribution (Gag. & Bldg.)" -* `BidItem` = "2 - Garage" - -* Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)` - * **Count** = Garage GSF + Takeoff: `ITEM DATABASE`/`TEMPORARY POWER`/`* - TEMPORARY LIGHTING / PWR PNL (PER BLDG AREA SFT)` + * **Count** = Garage GSF ## Irrigation Pumps -* `Area` = "2 - Site" -* `Phase` = "Temp Power" -* `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous" -* `BidItem` = "1 - Site" +1. * `Area` = "2 - Site" + * `Phase` = "Temp Power" + * `System` = "MISC - Site Miscellaneous" + * `BidItem` = "1 - Site" -Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX` -* **Count** = 3 -* Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - " + Takeoff: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`30A 3PH MECH CONN (200') 3/4" PVC 4#10 - CARFLEX` + * **Count** = 3 + + Prepend to name: "Irrigation Pumps - " diff --git a/nfpa-101_life-safety-code.md b/nfpa-101_life-safety-code.md index f9b76d6..20192de 100644 --- a/nfpa-101_life-safety-code.md +++ b/nfpa-101_life-safety-code.md @@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018)" --- # NFPA 101: Life Safety Code (2018) - +%% ## Chapter 1 Administration diff --git a/nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md b/nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md index 1257048..3cf7c5e 100644 --- a/nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md +++ b/nfpa-70_220_load-calculations.md @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ Part V provides calculation methods for farm loads. ### Figure 220.1 Branch-Circuit, Feeder, and Service Load Calculation Methods. - +%% TODO: FIGURE OMITTED %% ### 220.3 Other Articles for Specific-Purpose Calculations. diff --git a/nfpa-70_300_general-requirements.md b/nfpa-70_300_general-requirements.md index 6e41c93..53f7063 100644 --- a/nfpa-70_300_general-requirements.md +++ b/nfpa-70_300_general-requirements.md @@ -734,7 +734,7 @@ One of the following methods of support shall be used: 4. Other approved means. - +%% TODO: TEXT OMITTED %% ### 300.20 Induced Currents in Ferrous Metal Enclosures or Ferrous Metal Raceways. diff --git a/nfpa-72_national-fire-alarm-code.md b/nfpa-72_national-fire-alarm-code.md index 5d44512..574041c 100644 --- a/nfpa-72_national-fire-alarm-code.md +++ b/nfpa-72_national-fire-alarm-code.md @@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ title: "NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019)" --- # NFPA 72: National Fire Alarm and Signaling Code (2019) - +%% ## Chapter 1 Administration diff --git a/optimal-estimating-patterns.md b/optimal-estimating-patterns.md index e5e33f1..e4a4b5f 100644 --- a/optimal-estimating-patterns.md +++ b/optimal-estimating-patterns.md @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ on the stale patterns developed for marginally similar applications decades ago. > If you could just do what they're trying to do correctly, > you probably wouldn't need all these optimizations anyway. - +%% ## More "Innovative" Patterns @@ -78,10 +78,10 @@ each adjusts the prior to calculate the expected quantity for all 18 levels. ### Sketch-Based Lookup - +%% A better use for computer vision in estimating is sketch based assembly lookup. diff --git a/pre-takeoff-research.md b/pre-takeoff-research.md index 8a3c5e3..2adb080 100644 --- a/pre-takeoff-research.md +++ b/pre-takeoff-research.md @@ -11,9 +11,9 @@ title: Pre-Takeoff Research --- # Pre-Takeoff Research - +%% > [!important] Requirement Precedence > In case of conflict: @@ -21,20 +21,24 @@ This note should be arranged chronologically: > are superseded by the terms of our proposal, > which are superseded by specific direction from the bid team. - +%% > [!aside] "Plans & Specs" > The oft repeated "per plans and specs" is a gross oversimplification: -> The RFP documents are more likely than not -> to have one or more irreconcilable contradictions, +> The RFP documents will---more likely than not--- +> have one or more irreconcilable contradictions, > or some instance of [[gold-plating]] too egregious to accept. -> When ConEst takes of a project "per plans and specs", +> When ConEst takes off a project "per plans and specs", > we are taking off _Bid's interpretation_ of the RFP documents, > which they must be able to articulate. +%% +The limitations of Bid's authority are currently being questioned +%% + Seek to use the cheapest method, as determined by Senior Construction Estimator and Database Administrator, @@ -114,9 +118,9 @@ _without respect for voltage drop_. * Riser Diagram * Subfeed schedule (if present) - +%% diff --git a/purpose-of-construction-estimating.md b/purpose-of-construction-estimating.md index b259d6c..7d82520 100644 --- a/purpose-of-construction-estimating.md +++ b/purpose-of-construction-estimating.md @@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ See [[gold-plating]]. * Make profit to meet growth target * Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog) - +%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %% > [!aside] > I take increasing issue with the common model diff --git a/raceway-terms.md b/raceway-terms.md index 33db00a..64e6613 100644 --- a/raceway-terms.md +++ b/raceway-terms.md @@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ title: Raceway Terms > "Duct bank" is not given explicit definition in the NEC, > however it is used frequently to refer to any group of **ducts**, > _even as few as one_, as shown in Figure 310.60(C)(3). -> It is always spelled as two words. +> ==It is always spelled as two words.== ## "Wiring Method" diff --git a/resolving-process-uncertainty.md b/resolving-process-uncertainty.md index 8bc6a31..f2ed5cf 100644 --- a/resolving-process-uncertainty.md +++ b/resolving-process-uncertainty.md @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ Only escalate if you are still uncertain. ## Writing Process Notes - +%% TODO: %% ### `TALK` @@ -59,4 +59,4 @@ Prepare for any obvious clarifying questions. ### Choosing Your Target - +%% TODO: %% diff --git a/separating-estimating-concerns.md b/separating-estimating-concerns.md index 1c0e10b..4711b50 100644 --- a/separating-estimating-concerns.md +++ b/separating-estimating-concerns.md @@ -20,11 +20,11 @@ title: Separating Estimating Concerns > It is traditionally understood as a principle strictly of _software_ design, > however its applications are universal. - +%% ## 1. Annotation diff --git a/stochastic-branch-takeoff.md b/stochastic-branch-takeoff.md index b3303c8..bea2d64 100644 --- a/stochastic-branch-takeoff.md +++ b/stochastic-branch-takeoff.md @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ determine relative impact of factors * Delunay triangulation * Voronoi diagrams - +%% TODO: link paper on procedural generation of single family homes %% ## Average Distance Given Area diff --git a/tags.md b/tags.md index 3258697..03597a2 100644 --- a/tags.md +++ b/tags.md @@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ They are always? of [[tags#destiny/fleeting]]. ### #type/task - +%%TODO%% ### #type/guide @@ -173,11 +173,11 @@ They are always? of [[tags#authorship/original]]. ### #type/anecdote - +%%TODO%% ### #type/media-commentary - +%%TODO%% ## #authorship diff --git a/telecom-takeoff.md b/telecom-takeoff.md index 251ae95..eb383cc 100644 --- a/telecom-takeoff.md +++ b/telecom-takeoff.md @@ -19,22 +19,22 @@ title: Telecom > [!important] > Not to be confused with [[low-voltage-takeoff]]. +## Note: Empty Conduit + +Where `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... +is specified, `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/... +is also acceptable. + ## "Site Low Voltage Duct Bank" -* Conduit from outside of building to MDF +1. * `Area` = "2 - Site" + * `Phase` = "Site" + * `System` = "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank" + * `Bid Item` = "1 - Site" -| | | -| ---------- | --------------------------------- | -| `Area` | "2 - Site" | -| `Phase` | "Site" | -| `System` | "LVD - Site Low Voltage Ductbank" | -| `Bid Item` | "1 - Site" | - -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY CONDUIT` - -Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C - -* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... + * Size and quantity per proposal > drawings > assume (4) 4"C + * **Length** = Length measured from MDF to 5ft beyond building footprint _Garden Style:_ Outside of every building @@ -47,80 +47,78 @@ _Garden Style:_ Outside of every building "Quazite Box" polymer concrete enclosure -`TEMPORARY ITEMS`/... +1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`Quazite Box ...` + * **Material Price** = 1000.00 + * **Labor Hours** = 12.00 + * **Sort Code ?** = 200 -* **Material Price** = 1000.00 -* **Labor Hours** = 12.00 -* **Sort Code**? = 200 +Alternative -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/... +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`POLES / EXCAVATION / CORING / UG PULL BX`/`MANHOLES / PULL BOXES / EXCAVATION / CONCRETE`/... ## Backbone Riser +* `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..." +* `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone" + (2) 4"C or (4) 4"C ULO -| | | -| --------- | ------------------------------- | -| `Phase` | "Building - BOH ..." | -| `System` | "TC - Telecom Backbone" | - -Add sleeves - ### Horizontal Backbone -| | | -| --------- | --------------------- | -| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram | -| `Area` | Area of riser room | +1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram + * `Area` = Area of riser room -* **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF. - * Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft). + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... + * **Length** = Length measured from MDF to IDF + * Input adder length to reach the level of the IDF (Minimum 15ft). ### Vertical Backbone -| | | -| --------- | ------------------------------- | -| `Drawing` | Telecom riser diagram | -| `Area` | "Typical - Building All Levels" | +1. * `Drawing` = Telecom riser diagram + * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" -* **Length** = Length between floors (15ft ULO) + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... + * Delete elbows if unnecessary. + * **Length** = Height between floors (Minimum 15ft) ## Telecom Backboard -As shown on plans. +As shown on plans, only if not excluded in pro -| | | -| -------- | ------------------------------- | -| `Phase` | "Building - BOH ..." | -| `System` | "TC - Telecom Backbone" | +1. * `Phase` = "Building - BOH ..." + * `System` = "TC - Telecom Backbone" -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD` + `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MISC ASSEMBLIES`/`... PLYWOOD BACKBOARD` + * **Count** = As shown ## Corridor Conduit (Unit MSDE to IDF) -Empty conduit, either of -* `FEEDER CONDUIT AND WIRE`/... -* `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... - One Takeoff per Area per level -* **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths × # of Units -* **Count** = # of Units +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`PDI EMPTY & DUCTBANK CONDUIT`/... + * **Length** = Average of subfeed lengths * # of Units + * **Count** = # of Units ## Inner Duct For future use (e.g. fiber) -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)` +1. `TEMPORARY ITEMS`/`MaxCell 3" 3 Cell` + * **Material Price** = 450.00/C + * **Labor Hours** = 12.00/C + +Alternative + +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`INNERDUCT`/`... (GP)` ## Devices As shown on plans. Ignore floor boxes, other electrical scope. -`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/... -* .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES` -* .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH` -* .../`ROUGH IN ASSY` +1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/... + * .../`BOH / AMENITY ASSEMBLIES` + * .../`SCREWLESS DECORA COVERS UNITS / BOH` + * .../`ROUGH IN ASSY` If system is included, take off _both_ rough-in and device assemblies in amenity areas. diff --git a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md index db46816..e6cbba4 100644 --- a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md +++ b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md @@ -1,19 +1,26 @@ --- id: the-failure-of-risk-management aliases: [] +title: _The Failure of Risk Management_ tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - status/complete - topic/risk - type/media-commentary -title: _The Failure of Risk Management_ --- # _The Failure of Risk Management_ -The Failure of Risk Management -(Why It's Broken and How to Fix It) -by Douglas W. Hubbard +This is the commentary companion to [[hubbard_2020_failure]]. + +_The Failure of Risk Management_ (abbreviated here as tFoRM) + +tFoRM is has two chief concerns: + +* introducing actuarial methods to industries other than insurance. + +* discrediting arguments against the use of actuarial methods + in industries other than insurance. ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations @@ -22,7 +29,7 @@ by Douglas W. Hubbard * Actuarial Science * Options Theory (OT) * Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) -* Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA) +* Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) * Value at Risk (VaR) * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC) * Risk Tolerance @@ -39,6 +46,7 @@ but not referred to as such. As it is most commonly understood, risk _always_ implies a negative impact. +Analyses that suggest otherwise are unhelpful. For boolean cases, risk can be represented as a vector of **probability** and **loss**. @@ -112,7 +120,7 @@ where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff. Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for. - +%% TODO: %% Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics, but do not apply them consistently in practice. @@ -251,3 +259,18 @@ Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument throughout the book and just pages earlier. + +## _Loss Models_ + +[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is obviously inspired in some part +by [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] and its prior editions, +which is strange because neither the text nor Klugman +are mentioned in the text. + +The opening line of _Loss Models_, + +> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#1.1.1 The Modeling Process]] (emphasis added) +> The model-based approach should be considered +> _in the context of the objectives of any given problem._ + +is just [[#_Exsupero Ursus_]]. diff --git a/thoreau_1854_walden.md b/thoreau_1854_walden.md index e25ba5e..570fefa 100644 --- a/thoreau_1854_walden.md +++ b/thoreau_1854_walden.md @@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: Walden -author: Henry David Thoreau +authors: + - Henry David Thoreau year: 1854 --- # Walden diff --git a/traditional-estimating-methods.md b/traditional-estimating-methods.md index 8e05cb6..6029b80 100644 --- a/traditional-estimating-methods.md +++ b/traditional-estimating-methods.md @@ -64,10 +64,10 @@ though most would refuse to answer anyway (see [[estimating-culture]]). #### Required Hyper-Specificity - +%% The reason that it's such a big deal to change between 1-hole straps and and unistrut straps is because it takes so long to do. diff --git a/two-way-takeoff.md b/two-way-takeoff.md index c0a80da..834df45 100644 --- a/two-way-takeoff.md +++ b/two-way-takeoff.md @@ -25,24 +25,38 @@ title: Two-Way Takeoff ## Horizontal -> `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room +1. * `Area` = Same as Fire Command Room -`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...` - -**Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of -* FCR to elevator lobbies -* FCR to stairwells - -**Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of: -* Count of elevators -* Count of stairwells + `FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...` + + **Length** = Per drawings if shown, otherwise use longer of + * FCR to elevator lobbies + * FCR to stairwells + + **Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of: + * Count of elevators + * Count of stairwells ## Vertical -> `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" +1. * `Area` = "Typical - Building All Levels" -`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...` + `FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...` + + * **Length** = 15ft * Count + * **Count** = _match Horizontal_ -**Length** = 15ft x Count +## Firefighter Phone System -**Count** = match Horizontal +> [!important] +> These are ICC definition two-way communication systems, +> redundant with the standard takeoff described above. +> These assemblies can be ignored +> unless given specific direction otherwise. +> Confirmed by Joel Jansen 2025-12-08 in reference to 2100 Crystal Drive. + +`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`COMMUNICATION DEVICES ...`/`...` + +* firefighter phone jacks +* fire warden station +* fire phone cabinet diff --git a/windows-setup.md b/windows-setup.md index 36e4358..ec71104 100644 --- a/windows-setup.md +++ b/windows-setup.md @@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ is to delete the folder and re-clone. ### Create a GitHub Repository - +%% TODO: %% ### Create and Push your Vault @@ -74,4 +74,4 @@ git push -u origin main Add and enable the Git Community Plugin. - +%% TODO: %% diff --git a/wolfe_1980_shadow.md b/wolfe_1980_shadow.md index 63899be..d6a55b3 100644 --- a/wolfe_1980_shadow.md +++ b/wolfe_1980_shadow.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: The Shadow of the Torturer -author: Gene Wolfe +authors: + - Gene Wolfe year: 1980 series: The Book of the New Sun --- diff --git a/wolfe_1981_claw.md b/wolfe_1981_claw.md index f994000..92c4755 100644 --- a/wolfe_1981_claw.md +++ b/wolfe_1981_claw.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: The Claw of the Conciliator -author: Gene Wolfe +authors: + - Gene Wolfe year: 1981 series: The Book of the New Sun --- diff --git a/wolfe_1981_sword.md b/wolfe_1981_sword.md index 4f93dad..0cbcced 100644 --- a/wolfe_1981_sword.md +++ b/wolfe_1981_sword.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: The Sword of the Lictor -author: Gene Wolfe +authors: + - Gene Wolfe year: 1981 series: The Book of the New Sun --- diff --git a/wolfe_1982_citadel.md b/wolfe_1982_citadel.md index 7bb9ed8..554cacf 100644 --- a/wolfe_1982_citadel.md +++ b/wolfe_1982_citadel.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: The Citadel of the Autarch -author: Gene Wolfe +authors: + - Gene Wolfe year: 1982 series: The Book of the New Sun --- diff --git a/wolfe_1987_urth.md b/wolfe_1987_urth.md index 7c5d20d..bb1ba89 100644 --- a/wolfe_1987_urth.md +++ b/wolfe_1987_urth.md @@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ tags: - type/media type: book title: The Urth of the New Sun -author: Gene Wolfe +authors: + - Gene Wolfe year: 1987 series: The Book of the New Sun ---