From 66d76384ec4616c83ffc1b47c7d2f29c5efaa5a0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:30:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] vault backup: 2026-04-21 12:30:40 --- timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md | 11 ++++++++--- 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md b/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md index 81509a4..b7791a9 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md @@ -15,8 +15,13 @@ or totally misleading, depending on the context. [^1]: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management) (emphasis added) -EVM can be an objective measure of _progress_, +EVM can be argued to be an objective measure of _progress_, but measuring _performance_, variance of actual cost/hours versus estimated, -(obviously) requires an estimate, -which is subject to bias and error. +(obviously) requires estimates, +which are subject to bias and error. +If you argue that subject matter expert estimates _are_ objective +under the Bayesian interpretation, +then sure, but then EVM is not unique. + + From 98d96e658929bb8498bf7e86a355dfd92c858cde Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2026 12:31:37 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] vault backup: 2026-04-21 12:31:37 --- timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md | 3 ++- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md b/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md index b7791a9..69ce706 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md @@ -24,4 +24,5 @@ If you argue that subject matter expert estimates _are_ objective under the Bayesian interpretation, then sure, but then EVM is not unique. - +EVM as a form of [[estimate-decomposition]] +suffers f