vault backup: 2025-10-28 17:01:24

optimal-estimating-patterns.md

@@ -15,34 +15,6 @@ title: Optimal Estimating Patterns
 [[construction-estimating-software]] consistently fails to innovate
 on the stale patterns developed for marginally similar applications decades ago.
 
-## Flaws of Traditional Patterns
-
-### Required Hyper-Specificity
-
-The reason that it's such a big deal to change between 1-hole straps and and unistrut straps
-is because it takes so long to do.
-If it was as simple as it is to visualize,
-which it could be if you were drawing these things and it was being interpreted,
-rather than having to explicitly specify every aspect of what you wanted.
-Then that would make a huge difference.
-
-In the (granted, limited) market segment that we've worked in,
-I use ~10 assemblies on a regular basis.
-That makes up 99% of the work.
-Why are there hundreds in in our database?
-They just need to be better.
-You could probably get away with hard coding some of this,
-even if that irks me,
-if they were good.
-It's just that it doesn't seem to be a goal
-that Trimble or anybody else has.
-
-### Assumed Finality
-
-While they may support a multitude of creative methods to create takeoffs,
-traditional methods are rarely as convenient when it comes to modify those takeoffs,
-as is frequently necessary as in the case of mistakes and revisions.
-
 ## More Optimal Patterns
 
 > [!note]
@@ -74,18 +46,43 @@ in terms of what existing estimators may be willing to accept
 #### Compared to Existing Frameworks
 
 Traditional methods interact with an existing database.
-EaC builds a static database at runtime.
+EaC builds a static database at runtime,
+allowing flexibility of input.
+
+* define variables
+* search and replace
+* undo
 
 #### Project Structure
 
 Organizational info (items, assemblies) as submodules.
 Solves database conflicts by pinning estimates to a commit.
 
-[[breakdown-objects]]
-[[assembly-objects]]
+#### Related Notes
+
+* [[breakdown-objects]]
+* [[assembly-objects]]
+* [[functional-labor-factoring]]
+
+### Bayesian Takeoff
+
+#### User Story
+
+Frank is estimating a 20-story high rise
+and notices that their are roughly, but not exactly,
+the same number of receptacles in the corridors of levels 2 to 19.
+Frank starts a new takeoff for duplex receptacles,
+typical of levels 2 to 19.
+He counts and inputs quantities for 3 levels,
+each adjusts the prior to calculate the expected quantity for all 18 levels.
 
 ### Sketch-Based Lookup
 
+<!-- TODO:
+This section is a transcription of a dictation.
+To be condensed.
+-->
+
 A better use for computer vision in estimating
 is sketch based assembly lookup.
 Probably the the biggest hang-up in the workflow