From 290b07b07800dff72339aae38bd8c8235b06a36b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2026 16:29:51 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-03-20 16:29:51 --- .obsidian/app.json | 8 ++++- .obsidian/community-plugins.json | 1 - fixture-designations.md | 4 +++ markup-vs-margin.md | 25 ++++++++------- timestamped/2026-03-20_09-11-09.md | 51 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md | 40 +++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-03-20_11-40-21.md | 41 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-03-20_13-18-50.md | 22 +++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-03-20_13-27-12.md | 35 ++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-03-20_13-44-59.md | 26 +++++++++++++++ uncertainty.md | 10 ++++++ 11 files changed, 249 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_09-11-09.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_11-40-21.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_13-18-50.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_13-27-12.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-03-20_13-44-59.md diff --git a/.obsidian/app.json b/.obsidian/app.json index fc5142c..37ba2aa 100644 --- a/.obsidian/app.json +++ b/.obsidian/app.json @@ -14,5 +14,11 @@ "foldHeading": false, "foldIndent": false, "defaultViewMode": "source", - "autoPairBrackets": false + "autoPairBrackets": false, + "pdfExportSettings": { + "pageSize": "Letter", + "landscape": false, + "margin": "0", + "downscalePercent": 100 + } } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/.obsidian/community-plugins.json b/.obsidian/community-plugins.json index 755cd4c..d02316f 100644 --- a/.obsidian/community-plugins.json +++ b/.obsidian/community-plugins.json @@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ "calendar", "periodic-notes", "spellcheck-toggler", - "obsidian-pandoc", "obsidian-tasks-plugin", "digitalgarden", "pdf-plus", diff --git a/fixture-designations.md b/fixture-designations.md index 32dbfd0..891f045 100644 --- a/fixture-designations.md +++ b/fixture-designations.md @@ -94,6 +94,8 @@ Reduce as appropriate. ## Garage +%% + Use ENT assemblies unless forbidden by spec. | Case | Assembly Path (`FIXTURE ACCESSORIES`/`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/...) | @@ -101,6 +103,8 @@ Use ENT assemblies unless forbidden by spec. | Conventional Slab | .../`GARAGE FIXTURE ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING` | | Precast/I-Beam | .../`GARAGE FIXTURE W/T ROD ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING` | +%% + If PVC is required, use following assemblies: | Case | Assembly Path (`FIXTURE ACCESSORIES`/`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/...) | diff --git a/markup-vs-margin.md b/markup-vs-margin.md index 77aafda..8701ed9 100644 --- a/markup-vs-margin.md +++ b/markup-vs-margin.md @@ -1,13 +1,13 @@ --- id: aliases: [] +title: Markup vs. Margin tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - - type/encyclopedia - status/complete + - type/encyclopedia - type/encyclopedia-entry -title: Markup vs. Margin dg-publish: true --- # Markup vs. Margin @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ $$ \text{Markup} = \frac{\text{Profit}}{\text{Cost}} $$ -**Margin** describes an item's profit as a fraction of its sell price, +**Margin** describes an item's profit as a fraction of its **sell price**, its cost to the customer. $$ @@ -38,19 +38,20 @@ Suppose a product that * is sold for $100 $$ -\text{Profit} = 100 - 80 = 20, \quad -\text{Markup} = \frac{20}{80} = 25\%, \quad -\text{Margin} = \frac{20}{100} = 20\% +\text{Profit} = \$100 - \$80 = \$20, \quad +\text{Markup} = \frac{(\$20)}{\$80} = 25\%, \quad +\text{Margin} = \frac{(\$20)}{\$100} = 20\% $$ -Contractors (and sellers of products and services in general) -almost exclusively talk about profit in terms of margin. -Even if someone says "15% _markup_" -they may still be talking about margin. - ## Converting Between Markup and Margin $$ \text{Margin} = \frac{\text{Markup}}{1 + \text{Markup}}, \quad \text{Markup} = \frac{\text{Margin}}{1 - \text{Margin}} -$$ \ No newline at end of file +$$ + +> [!warning] +> Contractors (and sellers of products and services in general) +> almost exclusively talk about profit in terms of margin. +> **Even if someone says "15% _markup_"** +> **they may still be talking about margin.** diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_09-11-09.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_09-11-09.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb0b369 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_09-11-09.md @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 09:11:09 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +date-created: 2026-03-20T09:11:09-04:00 +dg-publish: true +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 09:11:09 + +follow-up to [[2026-03-19_09-00-43]] + +> [!quote] Josh Ford @ 2026-03-20 09:10 via Outlook +> Good Morning, Team, +> +> Following up from our meeting yesterday. +> Please see attached for the Pre-takeoff template and example. +> +> * The template is saved here: S:\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\ConEst Process Documents +> +> * When completed please save in #4. Notes & E-mails within the project folder. +> +> * When distribution to the team, +> please send content within the body of the email +> and not as an attachment. +> +> * Distribution List: +> +> * To: PCM, Senior Estimator & Estimator +> * CC: Senior Construction Estimator, Other ConEst team members on the project, Josh Ford, Corwin Fluit & Jessalyn Williams +> +> * We will not use this exact template for Design Builds (remove spec portion of email), +> Data Centers, Stadiums or Large commercial projects (We will customize based on SOW) +> +> For the tasks, I will set up a separate meeting to go over that portion, +> feel free to leave that portion off the email until after that training. +> +> Let me know if you have any questions or if I forgot anything we discussed. +> +> Thanks everyone! + +BPM Task Review scheduled for [[2026-03-25]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a6b7e0a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-05-34.md @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 11:05:34 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-03-20T11:05:34-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 11:05:34 + +## The Delphi Method + +> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method) +> The Delphi method, or Delphi technique +> (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE), +> is a structured communication technique, or method, +> originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method +> that relies on a panel of experts. + +> [!quote] +> The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. + +To my knowledge, +neither [[hubbard_2020_failure]] nor [[hubbard_2025_project-management]] +mention the Delphi method specifically, +but they specifically warn against this premise. + +It ought to be permissible in conversation +to submit potentially relevant factors, +but arguments on the impact of those factors +will quickly spoil the estimate. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-40-21.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-40-21.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2563797 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_11-40-21.md @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 11:40:21 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-03-20T11:40:21-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 11:40:21 + +## Causal Notation + +[Causal notation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_notation) +may be helpful in illustrating the relationships +between the quantities listed in +* [[alternating-current]] +* [[voltage-drop]] +* [[conductor-sizing]] +* [[conduit-sizing]] + +> [!quote] +> $$ +> \begin{gather} +> s \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s) \\ +> s \overset {\leftarrow}{=} b(s) +> \end{gather} +> $$ +> +> $b(s)$ causes $s$ which in turn causes $a(s)$: $b(s) \overset {\rightarrow}{=} a(s)$ + +[Bayesian networks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network) +are a form of causal notation. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-18-50.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-18-50.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97740a7 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-18-50.md @@ -0,0 +1,22 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 13:18:50 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-03-20T13:18:50-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 13:18:50 + +I've wanted for a long time to build a NAS for my [[homelab]]. + +[DIY NAS: 2026 Edition](https://blog.briancmoses.com/2025/11/diy-nas-2026-edition.html) diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-27-12.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-27-12.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..647c8d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-27-12.md @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 13:27:12 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped + - topic/risk +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-03-20T13:27:12-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 13:27:12 + +## Sensitivity Analysis + +> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis) +> **Sensitivity analysis** is the study of how the uncertainty +> in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) +> can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. + +That is, quantifying the influence of an input on the output. + +When an estimator says that some factor is not worth consideration ("it's pennies") +it is usually meant that the estimate is not especially **sensitive** to that factor. + +Sensitivity, I think, is a much quicker concept to grasp +than [[uncertainty#Value of Information|the value of information]], +even if VOI can explain the same motivations and more completely. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-44-59.md b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-44-59.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9b73116 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-03-20_13-44-59.md @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +--- +id: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-03-20 13:44:59 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-03-20T13:44:59-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-03-20]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W12]]" +monthly: "[[2026-03]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q1]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-03-20 13:44:59 + +Relevant to [[fire-alarm-takeoff]], +while reviewing my takeoff for [[1990-k-street]] +Joel had to fix the assemblies I used for unit smoke detectors. + +Unit plans show combo smoke/CO detectors in all cases, +but bedroom smokes are to be smoke only +because fire alarm is PDI Design Build to code per proposal. diff --git a/uncertainty.md b/uncertainty.md index d874f89..263c4a5 100644 --- a/uncertainty.md +++ b/uncertainty.md @@ -93,3 +93,13 @@ Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge, and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]]. + +Under Bayesian statistics, +all uncertainty is epistemic. + +## See Also + +* [Uncertainty analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_analysis) +* [Uncertainty quantification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification) +* [Propagation of uncertainty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty) +* [Sensitivity analysis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis) \ No newline at end of file