vault backup: 2026-04-21 12:46:22

timestamped/2026-02-17_16-36-35.md

@@ -15,8 +15,14 @@ or totally misleading, depending on the context.
 
 [^1]: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_value_management) (emphasis added)
 
-EVM can be an objective measure of _progress_,
+EVM can be argued to be an objective measure of _progress_,
 but measuring _performance_,
 variance of actual cost/hours versus estimated,
-(obviously) requires an estimate,
-which is subject to bias and error.
+(obviously) requires estimates,
+which are subject to bias and error.
+If you argue that subject matter expert estimates _are_ objective
+under a Bayesian interpretation,
+then sure, but then EVM is not unique.
+
+EVM WBS's, as a form of [[estimate-decomposition]],
+suffer from its weakness of compounding inaccuracy.