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+---
+id: 2026-05-22T11:57:18-0400
+title: 2026-05-22 11:57:18
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-22]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-22 11:57:18
+
+## ConEst's Purpose Considering its Accuracy
+
+I removed [[2026-05-21_16-18-20]]'s plot
+because I screwed up the error calculation.
+After more rigorous investigation
+and more recent project data
+(the same new bids are based on)
+I'm happier with this one.
+
+![[pdi-estimating-error-kde.png]]
+
+The plot suggests that [[conest]]'s role
+is not in decreasing cost [[uncertainty]],
+because it does not appear to do so more than marginally.
+
+I'm lead to speculate that our purpose is in determining crew loading,
+which is cool with me,
+labor is the more interesting part of [[construction-estimating]],
+however our methods are not well suited to the purpose.
+After all, the majority of it is calculated in [[ms-excel]].
+See [[pdi-labor-plan]].
+
+> A less cautious man than I might wonder
+> if the negative bias apparent in Bid and ConEst
+> is indicative of systematic [[incentives|incentive]] gaming,
+> since if it we could change nothing of our process
+> and simply add contingency to address it.
+
+***
+
+> Our use of "WBS" is technically inaccurate.
+> The [[pdi-wbs|PDI "WBS"]] is more accurately called
+> [[earned-value-management#Schedule|the project schedule]],
+> which is the document which defines the planned value of each task.
+> On the other hand, project schedule is a terrible name for a specific document,
+> so I don't blame us for stealing WBS.