vault backup: 2025-12-11 12:38:04

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ for [[construction-estimating]] which:
 * determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
 
 ROE leans heavily on [[uncertainty#Value of Information]],
-which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
+which challenges the natural tendency to fear even the smallest risk
 with the reality of the **cost of certainty**.
 
 ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
@@ -32,19 +32,8 @@ increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
 
 ## TALK
 
-Despite how alien my approach may seem to most estimators,
-I believe its all merely extrapolation on the conventional practice.
-
-ROE includes fields far more disparate
-than my peers would traditionally consider relevant.
-
-Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
-
-[Actuarial Science](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science)
-strongly parallels construction estimation:
-
-- cost of individual service is uncertain
-- cost to customer must be minimized
+This note currently gets too far into the weeds
+of critiquing common practice.
 
 %%
 
@@ -83,9 +72,7 @@ See [[optimal-estimating-patterns]] for more.
 Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded.
 A framework to do so competently and consistently
 does not currently exist.
-
-> [!info]
-> Nor does the software necessary to utilize such a framework efficiently.
+Nor does the software necessary to utilize such a framework efficiently.
 
 The goal in and of itself ought not be controversial, however.
 Businesses regularly make far riskier decisions based on projections
@@ -117,7 +104,8 @@ Estimators know what the most likely and most expensive options are for a given
 and can fill in the detail required for item-oriented takeoff.
 This is called an **assumption** and is the basis of cost estimation.
 
-Assumptions are fundamentally incompatible with item-oriented estimating as it is commonly implemented.
+Assumptions are fundamentally incompatible with item-oriented estimating
+as it is commonly implemented.
 It is not possible to compare price possibilities
 except by creating separate takeoffs and breakdowns for each one.