From 4ef534c99fc6e2291af40eb780629071373f53eb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Thu, 9 Apr 2026 10:52:03 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-04-09 10:52:03 --- .../obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/data.json | 3 +- 1000-virginia.md | 25 ++++ christopher-glass.md | 0 timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md | 2 + timestamped/2026-04-02_20-41-59.md | 2 +- timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md | 24 +++- timestamped/2026-04-08_11-53-07.md | 108 ++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-04-08_13-53-59.md | 27 +++++ timestamped/2026-04-08_16-17-27.md | 38 ++++++ timestamped/2026-04-09_09-10-26.md | 34 ++++++ 10 files changed, 256 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) create mode 100644 1000-virginia.md create mode 100644 christopher-glass.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-08_11-53-07.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-08_13-53-59.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-08_16-17-27.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-09_09-10-26.md diff --git a/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/data.json b/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/data.json index 205438e..4f1237f 100644 --- a/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/data.json +++ b/.obsidian/plugins/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/data.json @@ -42,6 +42,7 @@ "isLeftHanded": false, "desktopUIMode": "full", "tabletUIMode": "compact", + "phoneUIMode": "mobile", "iframeMatchExcalidrawTheme": true, "matchTheme": true, "matchThemeAlways": true, @@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ "library2": { "type": "excalidrawlib", "version": 2, - "source": "https://github.com/zsviczian/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/releases/tag/2.20.2", + "source": "https://github.com/zsviczian/obsidian-excalidraw-plugin/releases/tag/2.21.2", "libraryItems": [] }, "imageElementNotice": true, diff --git a/1000-virginia.md b/1000-virginia.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d21049f --- /dev/null +++ b/1000-virginia.md @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: 1000 Virginia +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - occupational/project + - status/incomplete +--- +# 1000 Virginia + +Project Status: Warranty +Region: DIV-4 Dan Bacon +Building Type: High Rise +Contract Type: Design Build +Units: 454 +Square Feet: 545,051 +Start Date: 02/09/2021 +End Date: 12/05/2023 +Contract Amount: $19,852,516 + +1000 Virginia Ave Seattle, WA 98109 + + diff --git a/christopher-glass.md b/christopher-glass.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e69de29 diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md index b425881..a859fbe 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md @@ -17,3 +17,5 @@ Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]: Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel, entirely separate physically and electrically. Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential. + +![[location-vs-scope_2.excalidraw]] diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-02_20-41-59.md b/timestamped/2026-04-02_20-41-59.md index 2cc674d..8ae8529 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-04-02_20-41-59.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-02_20-41-59.md @@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ and are thus a different class entirely from those I'm most familiar with. I choose to criticize decomposition generally despite this because the distinction is rarely acknowledged by its advocates -so "decomposition = good" pervades the estimating zeitgeist completely +so "decomposition = good" pervades the estimating zeitgeist completely, and I get baffled, horrified, or patronizing looks when I suggest that complete quantity takeoff may not be more accurate than a parametric budget that could be completed in a day. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md b/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md index 2944012..5f9b247 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md @@ -17,13 +17,27 @@ yearly: "[[2026]]" --- # 2026-04-08 07:42:17 +## _HTMAiPM_ Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) + [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]] -If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias) -then neither is project manager experience. +%% +blockquote syntax below is use to indicate paraphrased quotes. +standard paragraphs are my extrapolation. +%% *** -A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty. -Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods -sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example. +RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling +(square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units) + +*** + +> If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias) +> then neither is project manager experience. + +*** + +> A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty. +> Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods +> sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-08_11-53-07.md b/timestamped/2026-04-08_11-53-07.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae16d4a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-08_11-53-07.md @@ -0,0 +1,108 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-08T11:53:07-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-04-08 11:53:07 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-04-08T11:53:07-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-04-08]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W15]]" +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-04-08 11:53:07 + +## NFM Lending Lunch & Learn + +"The Cost of Waiting: Building Wealth through Homeownership" + +NFM Lending, +"The Jane Floyd Team" + +### NFM Lending Power Design Incentive + +\$2,000 credit to closing cost + +Good year for buying? + +### Components of Preapproval + +* Credit +* Income +* Assets + +#### Credit + +> [!info] Credit Bureaus +> * Experian +> * Equifax +> * Transunion + +Minimum 580 for FHA, VA + +Minimum 620 for conventional +(assumes a large down payment) + +> [!info] Score Drivers +> * Pay history +> * Credit utilization +> * Past Derogatories + +#### Income + +Bonus, commission, overtime +2-year history with letter from employer +stating likely to continue + +#### Assets + +##### Traditional + +Savings + +401k personal loans + +Gift funds - documentation required +sent directly to title company + +##### Sourcing and Seasoning + +Bank deposits +cash is never an option +deposits need to be sourced (documented) +large undocumented deposits need to be seasoned for two months + +### Assistance Programs + +* 1st time home buyer programs: Statewide, county + +### Personal Family Budget + +* Nerd Wallet +* WalletHub + +### Rent vs. Own + +Mortgage Coach + +### Cost of Waiting + +If interest rates decrease +payment decreases marginally, +but you lose out on equity + +better to buy now and refinance when rates decrease. + +> 1% rate decrease $\approx$ \$10,000 value appreciation + +### "Escrow" + +Escrow account with title company +"opening escrow" + +separate from escrow account with lender for taxes, insurance, etc. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-08_13-53-59.md b/timestamped/2026-04-08_13-53-59.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d719f45 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-08_13-53-59.md @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-08T13:53:59-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-04-08 13:53:59 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +daily: "[[2026-04-08]]" +date-created: 2026-04-08T13:53:59-04:00 +dg-publish: true +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W15]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-04-08 13:53:59 + +> [!quote] [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]] (text decoration added) +> An assumption is a statement we treat as true for the sake of argument, regardless of whether it is true. +> Assumptions are necessary if you have to use deterministic accounting methods with exact points as values. +> ==You rarely, if ever, know an exact point with certainty,== +> ==so any such value must be an assumption.== + +Assumptions are frowned upon in [[construction-estimating]], +but they are only made necessary by the insistence on exact values. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-08_16-17-27.md b/timestamped/2026-04-08_16-17-27.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21d9374 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-08_16-17-27.md @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-08T16:17:27-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-04-08 16:17:27 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-04-08T16:17:27-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-04-08]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W15]]" +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-04-08 16:17:27 + +Relevant to [[location-vs-scope]] philosophy +for [[virginia-live-casino-and-hotel]]: + +Panels exclusively serving loads in Food & Beverage (FB) areas, +which are broken out separately from the larger Casino area, +are located in the Casino area. + +Discussing with [[joel-jansen]], +he told me to use my best judgement. +I told him that _my_ intuition, +trained from my time estimating for Ace, +is to break down by **scope**, +but that [[conest]] usually breaks down by **location**. +He agreed that is the preference, +and since the previous estimator's breakdowns +did not include Building Areas for the FB zones anyway +I should put the panels in Casino. + +It is worth noting that he was on his way out the door. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-09_09-10-26.md b/timestamped/2026-04-09_09-10-26.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c931a4a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-09_09-10-26.md @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-09T09:10:26-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-04-09 09:10:26 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-04-09T09:10:26-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-04-09]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W15]]" +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-04-09 09:10:26 + +## 1000 Virginia GP Variance + +[[1000-virginia]] closed $2,950,096 behind target GP. +At 14.86% of contract value, +it's possible that this variance represents a loss. + +Data grabbed from The Hub last year before I lost access +has both sale price and cost at exactly $19,906,645.23. + +> [!aside] +> Obviously this is doctored, +> which is immensely frustrating, +> but irrelevant to this note. + +I do not believe that a $20M job can be mismanaged by $3M.