From 712896b79ce4fa8c16a75a924025e2e640586a29 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Wed, 8 Apr 2026 07:48:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-04-08 07:48:16 --- timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md | 29 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 29 insertions(+) create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md b/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2944012 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-08_07-42-17.md @@ -0,0 +1,29 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00 +aliases: [] +title: 2026-04-08 07:42:17 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/periodic/timestamped +dg-publish: true +date-created: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00 +daily: "[[2026-04-08]]" +weekly: "[[2026-W15]]" +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]" +yearly: "[[2026]]" +--- +# 2026-04-08 07:42:17 + +[[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]] + +If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias) +then neither is project manager experience. + +*** + +A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty. +Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods +sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.