From 7921929978525029e7a301cfee7cd82d75b813a5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 14:53:32 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-02-20 14:53:32 --- 2025-11-01.md | 33 -------- 2025-11-13.md | 2 +- 2025-11-20.md | 2 +- 2025-12-18.md | 2 +- 2026-01-02.md | 2 + 2026-01-12.md | 113 --------------------------- 2026-01-19.md | 57 -------------- 2026-01-20.md | 26 ------- 2026-01-22.md | 76 ------------------- 2026-01-23.md | 29 ------- 2026-01-25.md | 114 ---------------------------- 2026-01-28.md | 35 --------- 2026-01-29.md | 95 ----------------------- 2026-01-30.md | 87 --------------------- daily-notes.md => periodic-notes.md | 0 small-tasks.md | 2 +- tags.md | 2 +- this-notebook.md | 2 +- timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md | 2 - timestamped/2025-11-01_05-41-00.md | 24 ++++++ timestamped/2025-11-01_07-06-00.md | 19 +++++ timestamped/2025-11-01_08-25-00.md | 21 +++++ timestamped/2025-11-04_14-52-05.md | 4 +- timestamped/2025-11-18_16-33-00.md | 3 +- timestamped/2026-01-12_10-00-00.md | 9 +++ timestamped/2026-01-12_10-42-30.md | 13 ++++ timestamped/2026-01-12_12-23-00.md | 60 +++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-12_13-02-00.md | 27 +++++++ timestamped/2026-01-19_11-57-39.md | 12 +++ timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md | 11 +++ timestamped/2026-01-19_18-13-00.md | 31 ++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-20_09-09-12.md | 8 ++ timestamped/2026-01-20_10-10-00.md | 10 +++ timestamped/2026-01-20_14-25-00.md | 5 ++ timestamped/2026-01-22_09-55-42.md | 13 ++++ timestamped/2026-01-22_11-58-00.md | 17 +++++ timestamped/2026-01-22_14-56-00.md | 43 +++++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-23_08-18-53.md | 14 ++++ timestamped/2026-01-23_12-34-00.md | 11 +++ timestamped/2026-01-25_18-46-00.md | 52 +++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-25_21-02-00.md | 24 ++++++ timestamped/2026-01-25_22-59-00.md | 35 +++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-28_09-51-08.md | 26 +++++++ timestamped/2026-01-28_10-02-00.md | 7 ++ timestamped/2026-01-29_10-07-37.md | 20 +++++ timestamped/2026-01-29_17-57-00.md | 73 ++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-01-30_08-44-29.md | 10 +++ timestamped/2026-01-30_09-06-00.md | 8 ++ timestamped/2026-01-30_13-42-00.md | 24 ++++++ timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md | 28 +++++++ timestamped/2026-01-30_18-33-00.md | 12 +++ 51 files changed, 678 insertions(+), 677 deletions(-) rename daily-notes.md => periodic-notes.md (100%) create mode 100644 timestamped/2025-11-01_05-41-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2025-11-01_07-06-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2025-11-01_08-25-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-12_10-00-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-12_10-42-30.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-12_12-23-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-12_13-02-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-19_11-57-39.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-19_18-13-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-20_09-09-12.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-20_10-10-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-20_14-25-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-22_09-55-42.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-22_11-58-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-22_14-56-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-23_08-18-53.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-23_12-34-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-25_18-46-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-25_21-02-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-25_22-59-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-28_09-51-08.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-28_10-02-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-29_10-07-37.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-29_17-57-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-30_08-44-29.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-30_09-06-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-30_13-42-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-01-30_18-33-00.md diff --git a/2025-11-01.md b/2025-11-01.md index 2abf0d4..1450617 100644 --- a/2025-11-01.md +++ b/2025-11-01.md @@ -5,41 +5,8 @@ title: 2025-11-01 tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - - original-format/typewritten-print - status/complete - type/periodic/daily dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-01 - -# 2025-11-01 05:41:?? - -_Saturday Morning_ - -Somehow I've already let an hour get away from me. -Today I need to do some cleaning: a load of laundry and leftover dishes -at least. I'll do those after I finish this note, plus some pushups, before -I shower and change to go visit the birds across the street. Later I'll need -to go to the store for more sliced almonds and coconut oil so I can make gran­ola -for tomorrow's breakfast. I'll go to Walmart so I can get a new mattress -protector, too. Copy paper, a 3-hole punch and a small binder would also be -nice for my typewriter journaling. - -# 2025-11-01 07:06:?? - -_Saturday Morning_ - -I wasted more time doomscrolling after my last note, but I did manage -to do the laundry, dishes, and pushups. Now I need to shower and dress in time -to see the birds. - -# 2025-11-01 08:25:?? - -#topic/hobbies/birding - -There were fewer than yesterday, but still a ton. There was a chill, but -I was dressed well for it. I think with exposure the birds will get used to -mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time -in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood -stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart. -There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well. diff --git a/2025-11-13.md b/2025-11-13.md index 5fe65b1..37b8fde 100644 --- a/2025-11-13.md +++ b/2025-11-13.md @@ -71,5 +71,5 @@ enough times independently that I would likely benefit from it. I added [[leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand|a book]] -on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand]] +on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand|Gregg Notehand]] to my calibre library. diff --git a/2025-11-20.md b/2025-11-20.md index 7d86288..0bbdb03 100644 --- a/2025-11-20.md +++ b/2025-11-20.md @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ --- -id: +id: 2025-11-20T08:46:00-05:00 aliases: [] tags: - authorship/original diff --git a/2025-12-18.md b/2025-12-18.md index 1229363..0251f70 100644 --- a/2025-12-18.md +++ b/2025-12-18.md @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ dg-publish: true #topic/meta I definitively think my new approach -of putting nascent ideas in [[daily-notes|daily notes]] +of putting nascent ideas in [[periodic-notes|daily notes]] rather than separate fleeting notes is superior. diff --git a/2026-01-02.md b/2026-01-02.md index 1c25117..c9557c3 100644 --- a/2026-01-02.md +++ b/2026-01-02.md @@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ tags: - type/periodic/daily dg-publish: true --- +# 2026-01-02 + # 2026-01-02 10:10:18 ### Harborside Plaza 4 diff --git a/2026-01-12.md b/2026-01-12.md index 861a8c8..aeef191 100644 --- a/2026-01-12.md +++ b/2026-01-12.md @@ -10,116 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-12 - -# 2026-01-12 10:00:?? - -#occupational - -### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS - -For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained. -In this case a negative variance was added to the buyout budget -in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage. - -# 2026-01-12 10:42:30 - -#occupational - -### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check - -#### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal - -Drawings show 2 separate duplex receptacles for dishwasher and disposal -Takeoff used `DW & DISPOSAL DUAL CIR - ...`, -which includes only one receptacle. - -According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario. - -# 2026-01-12 12:23:?? - -#occupational - -Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]] -to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey. -Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM. -We'll be meeting with the developer, [Greystar](https://www.greystar.com/). - -### Woodbury Heights - -```yaml -project-name: GSC Ltd. Woodbury Heights (aka Academy Pointe) -sector: Residential -market-type: Apartment -bldg-type: Garden -construction-method: Wood Frame -construction-type: V -unit-wiring-method: Romex -code-data: NEC2020 -mech-system: Split Dx -buildings: 9 -floors: 3 -units: 234 -gross-area: 266,272 -area-by-type: - - exterior-amenity: 12,306 - - interior-amenity: 5,031 - - garage: 3,788 - - saleable: 223,172 -division: MA 1 -geographic-region: Northeast -metro-area: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA -municipality-or-ahj: City of Woodbury -power-company: PSE&G -stakeholders: - - developer: Greystar (HQ - Charleston, SC) - architect: LS3P Associates Ltd - electrical-engineer: Hurst Engineering -contract-value: 2,305,000.00 -start-date: 2025-05-01 -end-date: 2026-08-26 -duration: 11 months -``` - -#### GP Variance - -> [!info] -> "GP%" is **margin** (see [[markup-vs-margin]]). - -The job appears to be doing poorly, at current GP variance of -$299,356. - -About $93,000.00 profit on a $2,391,378 job (~3% margin, down from 16.4% as bid). - -Intend to ask Joel what was missed if he knows, -and more generally if he has a strategy for figuring out, -between BPM, The Hub, and however many other places we can look. - -I doubt very seriously that mismanagement -can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme. - -# 2026-01-12 13:02:?? - -#topic/construction - -**Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater), -namely power, data, and natural gas. - -# 2026-01-12 13:02:?? - -#occupational - -Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to -1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building, -2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and -3. upfront costs already paid (construction is 50% complete). - -He also said that operations accused ConEst -of providing insufficient length for subfeeds, -which he said was true, -but not to the extent accused -(only ~600ft missed total). - -The award WBS shows $32,382 for equipment rental - -I'm dubious of all these explanations, -but I don't have another one. -I can't find the ConEst folder or Accubid file. diff --git a/2026-01-19.md b/2026-01-19.md index 6630e6b..ea5866d 100644 --- a/2026-01-19.md +++ b/2026-01-19.md @@ -10,60 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-19 - -# 2026-01-19 11:57:39 - -Follow-up to [[2026-01-10#2026-01-10 08:42]] - -A **natural language parser** would be a big help -for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently. - -[[nfpa-70_national-electric-code]] - -[[semantic-line-breaks]] - -[[2025-10-26#2025-10-26 18:36 --- Sunday evening]] - -# 2026-01-19 12:32:?? - -#topic/construction #topic/estimating - -Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]: - -450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) - -Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel, -entirely separate physically and electrically. -Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential. - -# 2026-01-19 18:13:?? - -### Smart Home - -One of the most exciting aspects of home ownership to me -is that I'll finally be able to go full smart home. - -A programmable thermostat is at the top of my todo list, -for energy efficiency, but mostly habit enforcement. -I can not sleep without blankets, and I can not sleep hot. -Turning on the lights as an alarm is usually effective, -but when it's cold I find it hard not cover my face and go back to sleep. - -In general the ability to make one's house unfit for relaxation -at certain hours of the week is very powerful. - -Google's Nest is the stereotypical smart thermostat, -but devices using a local, non-Wi-Fi protocol -like [Zigbee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigbee) -or [Z-Wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-Wave) -ought to be preferred. - -### Ulysses Pacts - -The most challenging part of implementing Ulysses pacts with yourself -is that sometimes you really _do_ need to jump in after the sirens, %% that's a stretch %% -but if you allow yourself an out for emergencies -you will almost certainly use it inappropriately in a moment of weakness. -I know I will, anyway. -Rarely can my fear of disappointing myself -overwhelm the immediate appeal of whatever I'm keeping from myself. diff --git a/2026-01-20.md b/2026-01-20.md index f708075..b734c8a 100644 --- a/2026-01-20.md +++ b/2026-01-20.md @@ -10,29 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-20 - -# 2026-01-20 09:09:12 - -Stumbled upon this line while waiting on my computer to restart. - -> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]] -> Unless we estimate the value of information, -> we may go down the deep rabbit hole of adding more and more detail to a model -> and trying to gather data on less relevant issues. - -# 2026-01-20 10:10:?? - -I was reminded again of [[2025-12-04#2025-12-04 09:51]]. -I added a [[small-tasks|task]] for it. - -[html-calculators](https://github.com/ZaneMeyers/html-calculators) - -I'm now certain that common estimating calculators -(e.g. voltage drop) -could be easily replaced with documents like this one. - -# 2026-01-20 14:25:?? - -Jfarrari The Unknowing (Acoustic) - -[[music-analysis]] diff --git a/2026-01-22.md b/2026-01-22.md index 68e7919..78dbe6b 100644 --- a/2026-01-22.md +++ b/2026-01-22.md @@ -10,79 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-22 - -# 2026-01-22 09:55:42 - -#occupational - -The lighting drawings for -450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II -(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) -show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms. -I knew this was understood to be prohibited, -but could not have provided a code reference. - -[[nfpa-70_110_requirements#110.26(D) Illumination.|110.26(D)]] -is the relevant section. - -# 2026-01-22 11:58:?? - -#occupational - -### 463 Davison Contract Dates - -[[463-davison-ave-ne]] - -Effective date: [[2026-01-21]] - -* [x] Escrow deposit due by [[2026-01-26]] -* [x] Loan application submitted by [[2026-01-26]] -* [x] Inspection period ends [[2026-01-28]] -* [x] Loan approval due by [[2026-02-11]] -* [ ] Title commitment due by [[2026-02-27]] - -Closing: [[2026-03-04]] - -# 2026-01-22 14:56:?? - -#topic/estimating - -### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM - -#### Quote - -> [!quote] Joel Jansen [[2026-01-15#2026-01-15 13:27]] (pp.) -> I'd rather have an accurate budget than an accurate BOM. - -#### Context - -#### Analysis - -It may be counterintuitive to BOM-oriented estimators -(typical of those with an electrical background), -but deviating from organization standard practice -to make an assembly "more accurate" -(read: to make the estimate BOM -more closely resemble the construction BOM), -may make the budget _less_ accurate. - -The review and adjustment process -is based on standard practice, -so deviations may have unpredictable effects. - -Our assemblies do not include screws. -It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them, -but we budget for that cost in the summary, -so to do so would be double dipping. - -Though not stated as such, -we budget for takeoff-to-install deviations the same way. - -\ - -An organization's takeoff database -ought to include exactly what is necessary for takeoff -at the acceptable level of detail, and nothing else. -It ought to be assumed by estimators that the previous is true, -and that acceptable takeoff of any scope -must be possible with the contents of the database. diff --git a/2026-01-23.md b/2026-01-23.md index 978167a..d68173b 100644 --- a/2026-01-23.md +++ b/2026-01-23.md @@ -11,33 +11,4 @@ dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-23 -# 2026-01-23 08:18:53 - -This morning I was thinking about the "slippery slope fallacy" -and how it's a common instrument of an appeal to fallacy fallacy. -As it turns out, the potential validity of slippery slope arguments is well studied. - -[Sorites paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Continuum_fallacy) - -[Many-valued logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-valued_logic) - -[Fuzzy logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic) - -Strictly speaking, a slippery slope argument is only fallacious -if it is not _necessarily_ true that one event must follow another. - -# 2026-01-23 12:34:?? - -Migrated several notes from Google's Keep - -[[2025-10-20#2025-10-20 ??:??]] - -[[2026-01-04#2026-01-04 ??:??]] - -[[my-resoluute-banjo]] - -[[pats-browning-a5]] - -# 2026-01-23 12:56:?? - Today the vault hit 50,000 words not including reference material. diff --git a/2026-01-25.md b/2026-01-25.md index abe28a6..db2e1a5 100644 --- a/2026-01-25.md +++ b/2026-01-25.md @@ -10,117 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-25 - -# 2026-01-25 18:46:?? - -#topic/finance - -### Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment - -For a **fixed-rate, fully-amortizing mortgage**, -the monthly payment is computed using the **standard amortization formula**: - -#### Standard Amortization Formula - -$$ -A = P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} -$$ - -Where: - -* $A$ = periodic payment amount -* $P$ = amount of principal, net of initial payments -* $i$ = periodic interest rate -* $n$ = total number of payments - -> [!info] -> $A$ is constant over the term, -> the interest portion decreases while the principal portion increases. - -#### Example - -For a 30-year mortgage of $268,000 at 5.75% annual interest: - -$$ -\begin{align*} -P &= 268000 -i &= \frac{0.0575}{12} = 0.004791\bar{6} \\ -n &= 30 \cdot 12 = 360 -\end{align*} -$$ - -The monthly payment amount $A$ is given by: - -$$ -\begin{align*} -A &= 268000 \cdot \frac{0.004791\bar{6} \cdot (1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360}}{(1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360} - 1} \\ -A &\approx 1563.98 -\end{align*} -$$ - -### Calculating Annual Percentage Rate (APR) - -$$ -\text{APR} = \frac{\frac{\text{Interest} + \text{Fees}}{\text{Principle}}}{\text{Term Years}} -$$ - -# 2026-01-25 21:02:?? - -[[the-failure-of-risk-management]] - -If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this: -Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments, -so to a critical reader they appear contradictory: - -In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]] -Hubbard introduces **decomposition** as a method for reducing error in estimates, -Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example, -without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition. -Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]] -which is a similar case. -Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet, -or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing. -Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier: -"Clearly, decomposition helps estimates." - -This section comes only pages after -[[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]] -in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it. - -See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]]. - -# 2026-01-25 22:59:?? - -[[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]] - -I really hate this study. - -I may be out of my league, -but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method -when the work was done by the researchers, -especially when some of their decompositions really suck. - -> ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin -> -> * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin -> * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference - -That's not a decomposition. -If you don't remember $\pi$ -that's a harder problem than it was before. - -> ##### Bushels of wheat -> -> * Population of the world -> * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year -> * Proportion of wheat wasted per year - -I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1] -there's an order of magnitude right there. - -[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$ - -The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_ ----which I'm tempted to believe because its funny -and it tracks with my anecdotal experience--- -but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly. diff --git a/2026-01-28.md b/2026-01-28.md index 87c0745..51b297a 100644 --- a/2026-01-28.md +++ b/2026-01-28.md @@ -10,38 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-28 - -# 2026-01-28 09:51:08 - -#occupational - -### ConEst OneNote Template - -The ConEst OneNote template concept -is flawed in ways that can not be addressed in OneNote, -but it has good ideas, too; -some I would not have thought could work so well. - -#### Takeoff Checklist - -At Ace my takeoff notes were entirely freeform, -and I would have balked at the idea of using a standard checklist. -Our projects were so varied -that no list could be generic enough -to approach universal applicability -without being so shallow -as to be useless to an experienced estimator. - -#### Estimator Initials - -Voluntary commitment to responsibility. -An estimator adding their initials -knows they are expected to be familiar with the scope. - -# 2026-01-28 10:02:?? - -#topic/meta - -I'm tempted to replace [[daily-notes]] with timestamped notes -from core plugins Unique Note Creator, -however the utility of the calendar widget is hard to concede. diff --git a/2026-01-29.md b/2026-01-29.md index b9b59f2..558d5f2 100644 --- a/2026-01-29.md +++ b/2026-01-29.md @@ -10,98 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-29 - -# 2026-01-29 10:07:37 - -#topic/estimating - -A peer's senior, expressing frustration, -told them that it if they disagree with an instruction, -they must have a reason, -implying that the estimator's previous complaints, -which were based on conflicting direction -received from other estimators and seniors, -were made _without_ reason. - -See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. - -The peer's senior is looking for a _realist_ objection to his methods, -which an estimator without field experience (which the senior has) -would be unlikely to be able to provide. -Their dismissal of legitimate _instrumental_ complaints -(misplaced effort, and deviation from more widely accepted standards) -speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating. - -# 2026-01-29 17:57:?? - -#topic/finance - -### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment - -See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]]. - -Homeowners are often advised to make elective mortgage payments -to reduce the total interest paid on the loan, -but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return -could outweigh the reduced loss. - -Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars -and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage -or to invest in a promising opportunity. - -The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage -is the -(i.e., interest that will no longer accrue) -at the end of the loan is: - -$$ -R_{\text{mortgage}} = E(1+i)^{n} -$$ - -> [!info]- Explanation -> This formula may seem suspiciously straightforward, -> but suppose you did _not_ contribute $E$. -> That portion of the principle would accrue interest -> every month at rate $i$. -> After $n$ months, the interest accrued by that portion is given by: -> -> $$ -> E(1+i)^{n} -> $$ - -If the same $E$ is invested elsewhere at monthly return $j$, -its future value after $n$ months takes the same form: - -$$ -\text{FV}_{\text{investment}} = E(1+j)^{n} -$$ - -Therefore, $j$ must exceed $i$ -for the alternative investment to be preferable to elective payment. - -Note that $i$ and $j$ are adjusted rates, -including respect for taxes and utility. - -On second thought, in a utility context, -time preference could make $j$ preferable -even when slightly lower. - -Short-term investments may be favored -when liquidity is needed during the term, -and tax deferred investments (IRA) -are strongly favored over elective payment -since interest is deductible -(effective interest < nominal). - -### Calculating Effect of Elective Payment on Term Length - -The monthly payment and interest rate are fixed, -so the term length must decrease - -$$ -\begin{align} -A &= P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} \\ -P &= A \cdot \frac{(1+i)^n-1}{i(1+i)^n} \\ -n &= \frac{\ln\left(\frac{A}{A-Pi}\right)}{\ln(1+i)} \\ -\end{align} -$$ diff --git a/2026-01-30.md b/2026-01-30.md index f955023..ca85921 100644 --- a/2026-01-30.md +++ b/2026-01-30.md @@ -10,90 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-30 - -# 2026-01-30 08:44:29 - -#topic/meta - -Follow-up to [[2026-01-28#2026-01-28 10:02]]. - -I really would like to implement timestamped notes, -especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies. - -Only the lack of plugin support stops me. - -# 2026-01-30 09:06:?? - -#topic/meta - -I tried the Smart Connections community plugin. -I can't imagine who it could be useful for. -It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content, -which means that every daily note is connected to every other. - -# 2026-01-30 13:42:?? - -Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one, -I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve, -rather than forget about it (as I am won to do). -See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]]. - -Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine -caters to a class of people I find bizarre, -those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort -just for the marginal benefit -of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people. -Instead they get to take out their phone, -find and open the light switch app, -and touch a virtual light switch -because the routines they programmed were too conservative. - -Human or software, -an assistant without agency -_and the will to contradict you_ -is worthless. -If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions -exceeds the effort to perform them, -you will always do the task yourself. - -# 2026-01-30 16:29:?? - -#topic/math/statistics - -### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS) - -> [!info] -> Pierre-Simon Laplace - -If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations, -the probability the event will occur in the next observation -is given by: - -$$ -\frac{1+m}{2+n} -$$ - -### Rule of Five - -The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%. -The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples -_don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$, -equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin -$n$ times in a row. - -There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population -is between the smallest and largest values -in any random sample of five from that population. - -# 2026-01-30 18:33:?? - -#topic/personal-productivity - -Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory, -to clean my house while working from home, -even after returning from work on-site? -Why again does that feeling of necessity -persist even into the evening, -when I would normally be home anyway, -but unable to summon the will to do anything -about rapidly growing piles of dirty dishes and clothes? diff --git a/daily-notes.md b/periodic-notes.md similarity index 100% rename from daily-notes.md rename to periodic-notes.md diff --git a/small-tasks.md b/small-tasks.md index 86f41c7..ad8572a 100644 --- a/small-tasks.md +++ b/small-tasks.md @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ For those that do, see [[TODO]]. _Task_ (italicized) as used in this note, refers specifically to the Task community plugin's definition. -_Tasks_ should generally be created only in [[daily-notes]]. +_Tasks_ should generally be created only in [[periodic-notes]]. If created in the note they reference they will want to be deleted after resolution, which I feel defeats the purpose of the plugin. diff --git a/tags.md b/tags.md index bc6e11b..942968d 100644 --- a/tags.md +++ b/tags.md @@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ in the wider industry. ### #type/idea > [!danger] Deprecated Tag -> Use of this tag has been deprecated in favor of [[daily-notes]]. +> Use of this tag has been deprecated in favor of [[periodic-notes]]. Items of `#type/idea` are recommendation that I do something in the future, diff --git a/this-notebook.md b/this-notebook.md index e2c1d2c..a9f1752 100644 --- a/this-notebook.md +++ b/this-notebook.md @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ The rest is whatever else I feel is worth writing down. It's hard for me to reconcile the idea of daily notes with the purpose of [[personal-knowledge-management]] as I see it. Nonetheless, they are popular, and generally enjoyable to write. -See [[daily-notes]] for appropriate use. +See [[periodic-notes]] for appropriate use. ## Purpose diff --git a/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md b/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md index 02634e7..49dfb39 100644 --- a/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md @@ -16,8 +16,6 @@ dg-publish: true ## Estimating Isn't Engineering -#topic/estimating - A peer recently expressed frustration to me about the declining quality of construction drawings, specifically how systems are often missing details diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-01_05-41-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-01_05-41-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b820782 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-01_05-41-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: 2025-11-01 05:41:?? +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - original-format/typewritten-print + - status/draft + - type/timestamped +dg-publish: true +--- +# 2025-11-01 05:41:?? + +_Saturday Morning_ + +Somehow I've already let an hour get away from me. +Today I need to do some cleaning: a load of laundry and leftover dishes +at least. I'll do those after I finish this note, plus some pushups, before +I shower and change to go visit the birds across the street. Later I'll need +to go to the store for more sliced almonds and coconut oil so I can make gran­ola +for tomorrow's breakfast. I'll go to Walmart so I can get a new mattress +protector, too. Copy paper, a 3-hole punch and a small binder would also be +nice for my typewriter journaling. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-01_07-06-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-01_07-06-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4194dbc --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-01_07-06-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: 2025-11-01 07:06:?? +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - original-format/typewritten-print + - status/draft + - type/timestamped +dg-publish: true +--- +# 2025-11-01 07:06:?? + +_Saturday Morning_ + +I wasted more time doomscrolling after my last note, but I did manage +to do the laundry, dishes, and pushups. Now I need to shower and dress in time +to see the birds. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-01_08-25-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-01_08-25-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..029858c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-01_08-25-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: 2025-11-01 08:25:?? +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - original-format/typewritten-print + - status/draft + - topic/hobbies/birding + - type/timestamped +dg-publish: true +--- +# 2025-11-01 08:25:?? + +There were fewer than yesterday, but still a ton. There was a chill, but +I was dressed well for it. I think with exposure the birds will get used to +mg presence. I saw a bald eagle (_Haliaeetus leucocephalus_) for the first time +in Florida. They are ugly creatures, of both body and spirit, unlike the wood +stork (_Mycteria americana_) which is uglier of body, but pure of heart. +There was also some guy getting dumped on the phone and not taking it well. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-04_14-52-05.md b/timestamped/2025-11-04_14-52-05.md index 8e534f5..881b061 100644 --- a/timestamped/2025-11-04_14-52-05.md +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-04_14-52-05.md @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - status/complete + - occupational + - type/minutes dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-04 14:52:05 -#occupational #type/minutes - ### Belle Meade Director Review #### Takeoff Review diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-18_16-33-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-18_16-33-00.md index 1ed7d95..a33118d 100644 --- a/timestamped/2025-11-18_16-33-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-18_16-33-00.md @@ -7,14 +7,13 @@ tags: - destiny/permanent - status/draft - type/timestamped + - occupational dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-18 16:33:?? ## Elliot St. ConEst Senior Review -#occupational - %% Transcription of notes taken while reviewing Elliot St. with Joel Jansen. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..40300dd --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# 2026-01-12 10:00:?? + +#occupational + +### ECH3 Executed Contract Revision WBS + +For Executed Contract Revisions, Bid GP% must be maintained. +In this case a negative variance was added to the buyout budget +in order to compensate for an increase in permit fee coverage. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-42-30.md b/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-42-30.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f8396df --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-12_10-42-30.md @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +# 2026-01-12 10:42:30 + +#occupational + +### Woodbrook Executed Contract Revision Takeoff Check + +#### Unit Dishwasher/Disposal + +Drawings show 2 separate duplex receptacles for dishwasher and disposal +Takeoff used `DW & DISPOSAL DUAL CIR - ...`, +which includes only one receptacle. + +According to Joel this takeoff is correct for the scenario. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-12_12-23-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-12_12-23-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0719fdf --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-12_12-23-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +# 2026-01-12 12:23:?? + +#occupational + +Travelling with Brian Smarslok and Joel Jansen on [[2026-01-15]] +to visit [[#Woodbury Heights|an awarded project]] in New Jersey. +Flying from TPA to PHL, departure @ 7:00AM. +We'll be meeting with the developer, [Greystar](https://www.greystar.com/). + +### Woodbury Heights + +```yaml +project-name: GSC Ltd. Woodbury Heights (aka Academy Pointe) +sector: Residential +market-type: Apartment +bldg-type: Garden +construction-method: Wood Frame +construction-type: V +unit-wiring-method: Romex +code-data: NEC2020 +mech-system: Split Dx +buildings: 9 +floors: 3 +units: 234 +gross-area: 266,272 +area-by-type: + - exterior-amenity: 12,306 + - interior-amenity: 5,031 + - garage: 3,788 + - saleable: 223,172 +division: MA 1 +geographic-region: Northeast +metro-area: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA +municipality-or-ahj: City of Woodbury +power-company: PSE&G +stakeholders: + - developer: Greystar (HQ - Charleston, SC) + architect: LS3P Associates Ltd + electrical-engineer: Hurst Engineering +contract-value: 2,305,000.00 +start-date: 2025-05-01 +end-date: 2026-08-26 +duration: 11 months +``` + +#### GP Variance + +> [!info] +> "GP%" is **margin** (see [[markup-vs-margin]]). + +The job appears to be doing poorly, at current GP variance of -$299,356. + +About $93,000.00 profit on a $2,391,378 job (~3% margin, down from 16.4% as bid). + +Intend to ask Joel what was missed if he knows, +and more generally if he has a strategy for figuring out, +between BPM, The Hub, and however many other places we can look. + +I doubt very seriously that mismanagement +can be blamed for any significant portion of variance that extreme. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-12_13-02-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-12_13-02-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56a9cee --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-12_13-02-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +# 2026-01-12 13:02:?? + +#topic/construction + +**Dry utilities:** utilities other than "wet" utilities (water, sewer, stormwater), +namely power, data, and natural gas. + +# 2026-01-12 13:02:?? + +#occupational + +Joel attributes the [[#GP Variance|apparent variance]] to +1. missed Polaris lugs for feeders for one building, +2. insufficient budget for equipment rental, and +3. upfront costs already paid (construction is 50% complete). + +He also said that operations accused ConEst +of providing insufficient length for subfeeds, +which he said was true, +but not to the extent accused +(only ~600ft missed total). + +The award WBS shows $32,382 for equipment rental + +I'm dubious of all these explanations, +but I don't have another one. +I can't find the ConEst folder or Accubid file. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-19_11-57-39.md b/timestamped/2026-01-19_11-57-39.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..25274d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-19_11-57-39.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +# 2026-01-19 11:57:39 + +Follow-up to [[2026-01-10#2026-01-10 08:42]] + +A **natural language parser** would be a big help +for the sort of formatting I've been doing recently. + +[[nfpa-70_national-electric-code]] + +[[semantic-line-breaks]] + +[[2025-10-26#2025-10-26 18:36 --- Sunday evening]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e25b94f --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-19_12-32-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +# 2026-01-19 12:32:?? + +#topic/construction #topic/estimating + +Real example of [[location-vs-scope]]: + +450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II (fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) + +Project is two buildings: Residential and Hotel, +entirely separate physically and electrically. +Generators for both are located on a lower roof of Residential. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-19_18-13-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-19_18-13-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f5adc77 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-19_18-13-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +# 2026-01-19 18:13:?? + +### Smart Home + +One of the most exciting aspects of home ownership to me +is that I'll finally be able to go full smart home. + +A programmable thermostat is at the top of my todo list, +for energy efficiency, but mostly habit enforcement. +I can not sleep without blankets, and I can not sleep hot. +Turning on the lights as an alarm is usually effective, +but when it's cold I find it hard not cover my face and go back to sleep. + +In general the ability to make one's house unfit for relaxation +at certain hours of the week is very powerful. + +Google's Nest is the stereotypical smart thermostat, +but devices using a local, non-Wi-Fi protocol +like [Zigbee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigbee) +or [Z-Wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-Wave) +ought to be preferred. + +### Ulysses Pacts + +The most challenging part of implementing Ulysses pacts with yourself +is that sometimes you really _do_ need to jump in after the sirens, %% that's a stretch %% +but if you allow yourself an out for emergencies +you will almost certainly use it inappropriately in a moment of weakness. +I know I will, anyway. +Rarely can my fear of disappointing myself +overwhelm the immediate appeal of whatever I'm keeping from myself. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-20_09-09-12.md b/timestamped/2026-01-20_09-09-12.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3001e9b --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-20_09-09-12.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +# 2026-01-20 09:09:12 + +Stumbled upon this line while waiting on my computer to restart. + +> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]] +> Unless we estimate the value of information, +> we may go down the deep rabbit hole of adding more and more detail to a model +> and trying to gather data on less relevant issues. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-20_10-10-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-20_10-10-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d14a7d2 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-20_10-10-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +# 2026-01-20 10:10:?? + +I was reminded again of [[2025-12-04#2025-12-04 09:51]]. +I added a [[small-tasks|task]] for it. + +[html-calculators](https://github.com/ZaneMeyers/html-calculators) + +I'm now certain that common estimating calculators +(e.g. voltage drop) +could be easily replaced with documents like this one. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-20_14-25-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-20_14-25-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2359191 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-20_14-25-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# 2026-01-20 14:25:?? + +Jfarrari The Unknowing (Acoustic) + +[[music-analysis]] diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-22_09-55-42.md b/timestamped/2026-01-22_09-55-42.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..487a514 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-22_09-55-42.md @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +# 2026-01-22 09:55:42 + +#occupational + +The lighting drawings for +450-460 James Robertson Parkway Phase II +(fka James Roberston Pkwy Mixed Use Development) +show occupancy sensors serving electrical rooms. +I knew this was understood to be prohibited, +but could not have provided a code reference. + +[[nfpa-70_110_requirements#110.26(D) Illumination.|110.26(D)]] +is the relevant section. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-22_11-58-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-22_11-58-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e0ff73e --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-22_11-58-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# 2026-01-22 11:58:?? + +#occupational + +### 463 Davison Contract Dates + +[[463-davison-ave-ne]] + +Effective date: [[2026-01-21]] + +* [x] Escrow deposit due by [[2026-01-26]] +* [x] Loan application submitted by [[2026-01-26]] +* [x] Inspection period ends [[2026-01-28]] +* [x] Loan approval due by [[2026-02-11]] +* [ ] Title commitment due by [[2026-02-27]] + +Closing: [[2026-03-04]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-22_14-56-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-22_14-56-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0a8961c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-22_14-56-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +# 2026-01-22 14:56:?? + +#topic/estimating + +### Accurate Budget Vs. Accurate BOM + +#### Quote + +> [!quote] Joel Jansen [[2026-01-15#2026-01-15 13:27]] (pp.) +> I'd rather have an accurate budget than an accurate BOM. + +#### Context + +#### Analysis + +It may be counterintuitive to BOM-oriented estimators +(typical of those with an electrical background), +but deviating from organization standard practice +to make an assembly "more accurate" +(read: to make the estimate BOM +more closely resemble the construction BOM), +may make the budget _less_ accurate. + +The review and adjustment process +is based on standard practice, +so deviations may have unpredictable effects. + +Our assemblies do not include screws. +It would be more accurate to the BOM to add them, +but we budget for that cost in the summary, +so to do so would be double dipping. + +Though not stated as such, +we budget for takeoff-to-install deviations the same way. + +\ + +An organization's takeoff database +ought to include exactly what is necessary for takeoff +at the acceptable level of detail, and nothing else. +It ought to be assumed by estimators that the previous is true, +and that acceptable takeoff of any scope +must be possible with the contents of the database. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-23_08-18-53.md b/timestamped/2026-01-23_08-18-53.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3b26a70 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-23_08-18-53.md @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +# 2026-01-23 08:18:53 + +This morning I was thinking about the "slippery slope fallacy" +and how it's a common instrument of an appeal to fallacy fallacy. +As it turns out, the potential validity of slippery slope arguments is well studied. + +[Sorites paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Continuum_fallacy) + +[Many-valued logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-valued_logic) + +[Fuzzy logic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic) + +Strictly speaking, a slippery slope argument is only fallacious +if it is not _necessarily_ true that one event must follow another. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-23_12-34-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-23_12-34-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..17c074e --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-23_12-34-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +# 2026-01-23 12:34:?? + +Migrated several notes from Google's Keep + +[[2025-10-20#2025-10-20 ??:??]] + +[[2026-01-04#2026-01-04 ??:??]] + +[[my-resoluute-banjo]] + +[[pats-browning-a5]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-25_18-46-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-25_18-46-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6c0a079 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-25_18-46-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,52 @@ +# 2026-01-25 18:46:?? + +#topic/finance + +### Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment + +For a **fixed-rate, fully-amortizing mortgage**, +the monthly payment is computed using the **standard amortization formula**: + +#### Standard Amortization Formula + +$$ +A = P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} +$$ + +Where: + +* $A$ = periodic payment amount +* $P$ = amount of principal, net of initial payments +* $i$ = periodic interest rate +* $n$ = total number of payments + +> [!info] +> $A$ is constant over the term, +> the interest portion decreases while the principal portion increases. + +#### Example + +For a 30-year mortgage of $268,000 at 5.75% annual interest: + +$$ +\begin{align*} +P &= 268000 +i &= \frac{0.0575}{12} = 0.004791\bar{6} \\ +n &= 30 \cdot 12 = 360 +\end{align*} +$$ + +The monthly payment amount $A$ is given by: + +$$ +\begin{align*} +A &= 268000 \cdot \frac{0.004791\bar{6} \cdot (1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360}}{(1+ 0.004791\bar{6})^{360} - 1} \\ +A &\approx 1563.98 +\end{align*} +$$ + +### Calculating Annual Percentage Rate (APR) + +$$ +\text{APR} = \frac{\frac{\text{Interest} + \text{Fees}}{\text{Principle}}}{\text{Term Years}} +$$ \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-25_21-02-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-25_21-02-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dbc2840 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-25_21-02-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +# 2026-01-25 21:02:?? + +[[the-failure-of-risk-management]] + +If I have a general complaint about [[hubbard_2020_failure]] it's this: +Hubbard fails to recognize logical parallels between his different arguments, +so to a critical reader they appear contradictory: + +In [[hubbard_2020_failure#Break It Down, Then Do the Math]] +Hubbard introduces **decomposition** as a method for reducing error in estimates, +Providing Fermi's "piano tuners in Chicago" problem as an example, +without acknowledging that _Fermi_ supplied the decomposition. +Hubbard also references [[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]] +which is a similar case. +Neither of these examples suggest that decomposition is a magic bullet, +or even that a layman's decomposition wouldn't be worse than nothing. +Despite this, Hubbard ends the section without qualifier: +"Clearly, decomposition helps estimates." + +This section comes only pages after +[[hubbard_2020_failure#The Measurement Inversion]] +in which Hubbard warns against seeking detail for the sake of it. + +See also [[the-failure-of-risk-management#_Exsupero Ursus_]]. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-25_22-59-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-25_22-59-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4a14d0c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-25_22-59-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +# 2026-01-25 22:59:?? + +[[macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition]] + +I really hate this study. + +I may be out of my league, +but it seems wrong to draw conclusions about decomposition as a method +when the work was done by the researchers, +especially when some of their decompositions really suck. + +> ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin +> +> * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin +> * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference + +That's not a decomposition. +If you don't remember $\pi$ +that's a harder problem than it was before. + +> ##### Bushels of wheat +> +> * Population of the world +> * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year +> * Proportion of wheat wasted per year + +I might have included how much a bushel is,[^1] +there's an order of magnitude right there. + +[^1]: $1~\text{US bushel} \equiv 9\frac{3571}{11550}~\text{US Gallons} \approx 9.3~\text{US Gallons}$ + +The study suggests decomposition has no effect on estimate _confidence_ +---which I'm tempted to believe because its funny +and it tracks with my anecdotal experience--- +but I wonder if subjects using their own decompositions would present similarly. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-28_09-51-08.md b/timestamped/2026-01-28_09-51-08.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc741a8 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-28_09-51-08.md @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +# 2026-01-28 09:51:08 + +#occupational + +### ConEst OneNote Template + +The ConEst OneNote template concept +is flawed in ways that can not be addressed in OneNote, +but it has good ideas, too; +some I would not have thought could work so well. + +#### Takeoff Checklist + +At Ace my takeoff notes were entirely freeform, +and I would have balked at the idea of using a standard checklist. +Our projects were so varied +that no list could be generic enough +to approach universal applicability +without being so shallow +as to be useless to an experienced estimator. + +#### Estimator Initials + +Voluntary commitment to responsibility. +An estimator adding their initials +knows they are expected to be familiar with the scope. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-28_10-02-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-28_10-02-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d2e09db --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-28_10-02-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +# 2026-01-28 10:02:?? + +#topic/meta + +I'm tempted to replace \[\[daily-notes\]\] with timestamped notes +from core plugins Unique Note Creator, +however the utility of the calendar widget is hard to concede. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-29_10-07-37.md b/timestamped/2026-01-29_10-07-37.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bdd0645 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-29_10-07-37.md @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +# 2026-01-29 10:07:37 + +#topic/estimating + +A peer's senior, expressing frustration, +told them that it if they disagree with an instruction, +they must have a reason, +implying that the estimator's previous complaints, +which were based on conflicting direction +received from other estimators and seniors, +were made _without_ reason. + +See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. + +The peer's senior is looking for a _realist_ objection to his methods, +which an estimator without field experience (which the senior has) +would be unlikely to be able to provide. +Their dismissal of legitimate _instrumental_ complaints +(misplaced effort, and deviation from more widely accepted standards) +speaks to a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of estimating. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-29_17-57-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-29_17-57-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1f310c5 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-29_17-57-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ +# 2026-01-29 17:57:?? + +#topic/finance + +### Calculating Utility of Above-Minimum Mortgage Payment + +See [[2026-01-25#Calculating Monthly Principal & Interest Payment]]. + +Homeowners are often advised to make elective mortgage payments +to reduce the total interest paid on the loan, +but an unrelated investment with a sufficient return +could outweigh the reduced loss. + +Suppose you have a budget surplus of $E$ dollars +and are deciding whether to make an elective payment on your mortgage +or to invest in a promising opportunity. + +The return on electing to pay $E$ to the mortgage +is the +(i.e., interest that will no longer accrue) +at the end of the loan is: + +$$ +R_{\text{mortgage}} = E(1+i)^{n} +$$ + +> [!info]- Explanation +> This formula may seem suspiciously straightforward, +> but suppose you did _not_ contribute $E$. +> That portion of the principle would accrue interest +> every month at rate $i$. +> After $n$ months, the interest accrued by that portion is given by: +> +> $$ +> E(1+i)^{n} +> $$ + +If the same $E$ is invested elsewhere at monthly return $j$, +its future value after $n$ months takes the same form: + +$$ +\text{FV}_{\text{investment}} = E(1+j)^{n} +$$ + +Therefore, $j$ must exceed $i$ +for the alternative investment to be preferable to elective payment. + +Note that $i$ and $j$ are adjusted rates, +including respect for taxes and utility. + +On second thought, in a utility context, +time preference could make $j$ preferable +even when slightly lower. + +Short-term investments may be favored +when liquidity is needed during the term, +and tax deferred investments (IRA) +are strongly favored over elective payment +since interest is deductible +(effective interest < nominal). + +### Calculating Effect of Elective Payment on Term Length + +The monthly payment and interest rate are fixed, +so the term length must decrease + +$$ +\begin{align} +A &= P \cdot \frac{i(1+i)^n}{(1+i)^n-1} \\ +P &= A \cdot \frac{(1+i)^n-1}{i(1+i)^n} \\ +n &= \frac{\ln\left(\frac{A}{A-Pi}\right)}{\ln(1+i)} \\ +\end{align} +$$ diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_08-44-29.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_08-44-29.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03d0b8d --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_08-44-29.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +# 2026-01-30 08:44:29 + +#topic/meta + +Follow-up to [[2026-01-28_10-02-00]]. + +I really would like to implement timestamped notes, +especially while it's still somewhat practical to split my old dailies. + +Only the lack of plugin support stops me. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_09-06-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_09-06-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a806008 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_09-06-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +# 2026-01-30 09:06:?? + +#topic/meta + +I tried the Smart Connections community plugin. +I can't imagine who it could be useful for. +It seems to just identify large blocks of similar content, +which means that every daily note is connected to every other. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_13-42-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_13-42-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7a48404 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_13-42-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +# 2026-01-30 13:42:?? + +Often when I consider learning a new skill or improving an existing one, +I conceive of a system that would _force_ me to improve, +rather than forget about it (as I am won to do). +See [[2026-01-19#Ulysses Pacts]]. + +Conventional "home assistant" tech and doctrine +caters to a class of people I find bizarre, +those that would spend enormous sums of cash and effort +just for the marginal benefit +of not having to touch light switches as often as normal people. +Instead they get to take out their phone, +find and open the light switch app, +and touch a virtual light switch +because the routines they programmed were too conservative. + +Human or software, +an assistant without agency +_and the will to contradict you_ +is worthless. +If the effort to _communicate_ your instructions +exceeds the effort to perform them, +you will always do the task yourself. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1e1eecd --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +# 2026-01-30 16:29:?? + +#topic/math/statistics + +### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS) + +> [!info] +> Pierre-Simon Laplace + +If some event occurred $m$ times in $n$ observations, +the probability the event will occur in the next observation +is given by: + +$$ +\frac{1+m}{2+n} +$$ + +### Rule of Five + +The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%. +The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples +_don't_ straddle the median is $(\frac{1}{2})^{n}$, +equivalent to getting the same result on a flipped coin +$n$ times in a row. + +There is a 93.75% chance that the median of a population +is between the smallest and largest values +in any random sample of five from that population. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_18-33-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_18-33-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1313e97 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_18-33-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +# 2026-01-30 18:33:?? + +#topic/personal-productivity + +Why is it that I find it so easy, even compulsory, +to clean my house while working from home, +even after returning from work on-site? +Why again does that feeling of necessity +persist even into the evening, +when I would normally be home anyway, +but unable to summon the will to do anything +about rapidly growing piles of dirty dishes and clothes?