Vault backup 2025-07-17

estimating-detail.md

@@ -9,6 +9,17 @@ That said, the correct answer is this.
 
 > As detailed as possible, given required turnaround and available estimating resources.
 
+%%
+TODO: This analysis is not much better than the common belief.
+A commonality of both is the implication that more time ought to be preferred,
+when the reality is that when considering larger organizational factors (strategy),
+ideal estimate certainty is likely far lower than most expect.
+
+The *correct* correct answer involves optimizing for these factors:
+* value of increased bid certainty
+* value of increased estimate volume
+%%
+
 An estimate's detail is irrelevant to its quality.
 A less detailed estimate is a more [[risk]]y bid,
 but **it is not the role of the estimator to determine acceptable risk**.
@@ -33,3 +44,8 @@ $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$
 
 Time-saving strategies will overestimate or underestimate detailed takeoff
 depending on the assumptions used in their creation.
+
+## Human Error
+
+It is commonly understood that a "detailed takeoff"
+is more "accurate" than a square foot estimate.