Vault backup 2025-07-17

new-additions/automation/feeder-verification.md

@@ -9,5 +9,5 @@
 
 Breakdown selection is straightforward.
 
-Still need a solution to select all takeoffs.
+To select all takeoffs:
 Get top left corner of pane, offset down and right.

new-additions/automation/project-info.md

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+# Project Info
+
+Standardize formatting and input methods for common
+(mostly multi-family specific)
+project info, including:
+
+* level names
+* area types by level
+* switchgear by level
+* feeders
+    * from->to's with feeder tags
+    * feeder tag definitions
+
+To calculate regular quantities
+
+* sleeving
+* conductor support

new-additions/takeoff/lighting-controls.md

@@ -9,10 +9,10 @@ All control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
 * Digital
 * Wireless
 
-> [!info] "Local Control"
-> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate no condiseration
-> for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
-> (with $Ds being the triac type)
+> [!info] "Local Control" as a PDI proposal qualification
+> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate
+> no consideration for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
+> (with `$D`s being the triac type)
 > however, this phrasing is ambiguous and non-universal.
 > Confirm with the bid team on what must be included.
 

new-additions/takeoff/units.md

@@ -1,8 +1,11 @@
 # Unit Takeoff
 
+"Units" includes [hotel](#hotel) and [residential](#residential) spaces.
+
 > [!tip] Preparing for Unit Takeoff
-Units generally have very little variation.
-I
+> Units generally have very little variation.
+> It is usually best to copy-paste takeoffs
+> rather than re-build them for each unit.
 
 ## Hotel
 
@@ -10,6 +13,11 @@ I
 > * Guestrooms
 > * Keys
 
+> [!trivia]
+> The origin of the term "key" as a synonym of "hotel room"
+> ...
+> %% TODO: %%
+
 ## Residential
 
 > [!info] Also Known As

new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -51,6 +51,19 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 > Chapter 7 describes a study where experts
 > were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
 
+### Luck Looks Like Skill
+
+> Chapter 7 p.154
+
+Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
+given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
+there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
+_by luck alone_.
+
+He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence
+in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
+as the "Red Baron effect".
+
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
 * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
@@ -63,3 +76,29 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
 * Risk Tolerance
 
+## Critiques
+
+### _Exsupero Ursus_
+
+> Chapter 9 p.195
+
+Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
+to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
+He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars 
+because the other car can't fly.
+Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
+that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
+but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
+are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
+The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
+A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
+but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
+if they are further developed.
+Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
+that detractors become emotional in their defense.
+To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain
+excluding a long-term payoff.
+
+Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
+because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
+throughout the book and just pages earlier.