Vault backup 2025-07-17

new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -51,6 +51,19 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 > Chapter 7 describes a study where experts
 > were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
 
+### Luck Looks Like Skill
+
+> Chapter 7 p.154
+
+Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
+given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
+there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
+_by luck alone_.
+
+He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence
+in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
+as the "Red Baron effect".
+
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
 * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
@@ -63,3 +76,29 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
 * Risk Tolerance
 
+## Critiques
+
+### _Exsupero Ursus_
+
+> Chapter 9 p.195
+
+Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
+to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
+He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars 
+because the other car can't fly.
+Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
+that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
+but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
+are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
+The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
+A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
+but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
+if they are further developed.
+Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
+that detractors become emotional in their defense.
+To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain
+excluding a long-term payoff.
+
+Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
+because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
+throughout the book and just pages earlier.