Vault backup 2025-07-17

.obsidian/app.json

@@ -6,5 +6,6 @@
   "showLineNumber": true,
   "autoPairMarkdown": false,
   "useTab": false,
-  "alwaysUpdateLinks": true
+  "alwaysUpdateLinks": true,
+  "tabSize": 2
 }

2025-07-01.md

@@ -1,5 +0,0 @@
-# 2025-07-01
-
-I take increasing issue with the common model
-of measuring operational success by negative overrun,
-as it is incompatible with the preferable target of estimate certainty.

ai-in-estimating.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ tags:
 ---
 # AI in Estimating
 
-Most estimators are already pigeon holed into poor SaaS like Accubid and the rest already,
+Most estimators are already pigeon-holed into poor SaaS like Accubid and the rest already,
 but the need to increase efficiency with AI will be the nail in the coffin.
 The myth that "full package" estimating software is most efficient
 will only be exacerbated by the inclusion of AI features

assembly-philosophy.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ tags:
 
 also "Modularization"
 
-In construction estimating software, 
+In [[construction-estimating-software]], 
 [[assemblies]] are groups of material items
 representing a specific scope of work.
 

estimating-detail.md

@@ -9,6 +9,17 @@ That said, the correct answer is this.
 
 > As detailed as possible, given required turnaround and available estimating resources.
 
+%%
+TODO: This analysis is not much better than the common belief.
+A commonality of both is the implication that more time ought to be preferred,
+when the reality is that when considering larger organizational factors (strategy),
+ideal estimate certainty is likely far lower than most expect.
+
+The *correct* correct answer involves optimizing for these factors:
+* value of increased bid certainty
+* value of increased estimate volume
+%%
+
 An estimate's detail is irrelevant to its quality.
 A less detailed estimate is a more [[risk]]y bid,
 but **it is not the role of the estimator to determine acceptable risk**.
@@ -33,3 +44,8 @@ $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$
 
 Time-saving strategies will overestimate or underestimate detailed takeoff
 depending on the assumptions used in their creation.
+
+## Human Error
+
+It is commonly understood that a "detailed takeoff"
+is more "accurate" than a square foot estimate.

me.md

@@ -8,7 +8,8 @@ tags:
 
 ## My Memory
 
-I have a family history of dementia and I am medically predisposed to transient forgetfulness.
+I have a family history of dementia,
+and I am medically predisposed to transient forgetfulness.
 Several times in my life I have found months/years old notes in my handwriting
 that I could not recall writing, on subjects I could not recall having ever understood.
 
@@ -20,7 +21,8 @@ I'm not sure how much of this fear is real
 and how much is a subconscious ploy to justify not making the effort.
 
 I project this insecurity on others strongly.
-I see the same signs in other people and it reminds me of my own weakness.
+I see the same signs in other people,
+and it reminds me of my own weakness.
 I get frustrated at others for not making efforts that I don't make myself.
 I don't use this notebook as often or as well as I should.
 
@@ -44,7 +46,8 @@ My primary motivators are curiosity and stress.
 #### Curiosity
 
 I find it very easy and natural to work on projects for extended, uninterrupted periods
-when I am investigating a new problem or a potential new way to solve a problem.
+when I am investigating a new problem,
+or a potential new way to solve a problem.
 
 Because of this I often spend hours working on things
 that will not benefit me or anyone else.

new-additions/automation/feeder-verification.md

@@ -9,5 +9,5 @@
 
 Breakdown selection is straightforward.
 
-Still need a solution to select all takeoffs.
+To select all takeoffs:
 Get top left corner of pane, offset down and right.

new-additions/automation/project-info.md

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+# Project Info
+
+Standardize formatting and input methods for common
+(mostly multi-family specific)
+project info, including:
+
+* level names
+* area types by level
+* switchgear by level
+* feeders
+    * from->to's with feeder tags
+    * feeder tag definitions
+
+To calculate regular quantities
+
+* sleeving
+* conductor support

new-additions/takeoff/lighting-controls.md

@@ -9,10 +9,10 @@ All control methods are likely to appear in drawings.
 * Digital
 * Wireless
 
-> [!info] "Local Control"
+> [!info] "Local Control" as a PDI proposal qualification
-> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate no condiseration
+> The term "local control only" is sometimes used to indicate
-> for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
+> no consideration for *any* lighting control beyond standard devices,
-> (with $Ds being the triac type)
+> (with `$D`s being the triac type)
 > however, this phrasing is ambiguous and non-universal.
 > Confirm with the bid team on what must be included.
 

new-additions/takeoff/units.md

@@ -1,8 +1,11 @@
 # Unit Takeoff
 
+"Units" includes [hotel](#hotel) and [residential](#residential) spaces.
+
 > [!tip] Preparing for Unit Takeoff
-Units generally have very little variation.
+> Units generally have very little variation.
-I
+> It is usually best to copy-paste takeoffs
+> rather than re-build them for each unit.
 
 ## Hotel
 
@@ -10,6 +13,11 @@ I
 > * Guestrooms
 > * Keys
 
+> [!trivia]
+> The origin of the term "key" as a synonym of "hotel room"
+> ...
+> %% TODO: %%
+
 ## Residential
 
 > [!info] Also Known As

new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -51,6 +51,19 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 > Chapter 7 describes a study where experts
 > were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases.
 
+### Luck Looks Like Skill
+
+> Chapter 7 p.154
+
+Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
+given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
+there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
+_by luck alone_.
+
+He later refers to the tendency to overvalue competence
+in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments
+as the "Red Baron effect".
+
 ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
 
 * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
@@ -63,3 +76,29 @@ but do not apply them consistently in practice.
 * Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
 * Risk Tolerance
 
+## Critiques
+
+### _Exsupero Ursus_
+
+> Chapter 9 p.195
+
+Hubbard uses _exsupero ursus_ to describe the tendency of his detractors
+to dismiss quantitative methods as inappropriate to their industry-specific risks.
+He provides another analogy in which one car is picked of two (ordinary) cars 
+because the other car can't fly.
+Based on this strawman it is clear Hubbard believes his detractors are _correct_
+that qualitative methods can not capture the entire nuance of risk probability,
+but that they are failing to acknowledge that their preferred alternatives
+are not demonstrably more effective at doing so.
+The nuance Hubbard dismisses without addressing is the possibility of model _improvement_.
+A most competant detractor would be aware of the apparent contradiction
+but argue that their methods will eventually surpass quantitative methods
+if they are further developed.
+Such a position would additionally contextualize Hubbard's observations
+that detractors become emotional in their defense.
+To them, Hubbards methods represent an attractive short-term gain
+excluding a long-term payoff.
+
+Hubbard's dismissal rubs me wrong
+because it reads exactly as he describes the "at least we're doing _something_" argument
+throughout the book and just pages earlier.

purpose-of-estimating.md

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 # The Purpose of Estimating
 
+%% TODO: The content of this note is likely better put elsewhere %%
+
 ## The Purpose of Construction Cost Estimation
 
 The purpose of [[construction-estimating]] in practice
@@ -10,25 +12,33 @@ which would take far longer than allotted for bid,
 
 * Determine feasibility of functional requirements
 
-### Type 2 Owners
+> [!info] Type 2 Owners
-
+> For some owners, money is no object,
-For some owners, money is no object,
+> and standardization is far more important
-and standardization is far more important
+> than any potential construction savings.
-than any potential construction savings.
+> 
-
+> These owners can be expected to decline every [[value-engineering]] option offered
-These owners can be expected to decline every [[value-engineering]] option offered
+> (see [[gold-plating]]).
-(see [[gold-plating]]).
 
 ## For the Contractor
 
 * Make profit to meet growth target
 * Secure work for current and projected employees (fill backlog)
 
+%% TODO: "Determine the sale price of a service" %%
+
+> [!aside]
+> I take increasing issue with the common model
+> of measuring operational success by negative overrun,
+> as it is incompatible with the preferable target of estimate certainty.
+
 ### The Role of the Estimator
 
 The role of the estimator is to model the potential cost distribution of the project,
 taking actions to reduce the model's uncertainty.
-The progress of the estimator can be measured by $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$
+
+The effect of estimating methods can be represented as $d\sigma$,
+thus efficiency is $\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$.
 
 ### The Role of the Executive
 

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -1,3 +1,9 @@
+---
+id: risk-oriented-estimating
+aliases: []
+tags: []
+---
+
 # Risk Oriented Estimating
 
 Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]] which
@@ -8,7 +14,7 @@ ROE leans heavily on [[expected-value-of-perfect-information]],
 which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
 with the reality of the cost of certainty.
 
-ROE does not endorse common shortcuts which round up to "cover" uncertainty,
+ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
 as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
 increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
 
@@ -24,3 +30,4 @@ ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
 
 ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
 given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
+

strategy.md

@@ -8,9 +8,9 @@ The field of strategy is concerned with the optimal solutions of problematic sce
 
 Decision theory concerns
 
-~~internal problems~~
+* ~~internal problems~~
-~~no competition~~
+* ~~no competition~~
-~~internal optimization~~
+* ~~internal optimization~~
 
 ### Game Theory
 
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ typical of construction project award.
 
 ## In Construction Contracting
 
-**Executives** inform **Risk Tolerance** 
+**Executives** inform **Risk Tolerance**,
 **Risk Tolerance** informs **Minimum Estimate Certainty**
 
 ### Bid Strategy