From 7f3c4a3e07a2356d5951c6b3b6e68de2eb822489 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2025 17:04:52 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2025-07-14 17:04:52 --- new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md | 8 -------- new-additions/README.md | 8 -------- risk-oriented-estimating.md | 20 ++++++++++++++------ risk-registers.md | 8 -------- risk.md | 11 +++++++++-- 5 files changed, 23 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md delete mode 100644 new-additions/README.md delete mode 100644 risk-registers.md diff --git a/new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md b/new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md deleted file mode 100644 index f711610..0000000 --- a/new-additions/1752260155-JUEH.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,8 +0,0 @@ ---- -id: 1752260155-JUEH -aliases: - - "!example" -tags: [] ---- - -# !example diff --git a/new-additions/README.md b/new-additions/README.md deleted file mode 100644 index 6370362..0000000 --- a/new-additions/README.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,8 +0,0 @@ -# notebook - -This is a temporary spot for my notes while I figure out my setup. - -## TODO - -1. [ ] move main vault "ZMVault" to Github -2. [ ] branch and merge these notes with repo \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/risk-oriented-estimating.md b/risk-oriented-estimating.md index 123c1a5..aa0e2fb 100644 --- a/risk-oriented-estimating.md +++ b/risk-oriented-estimating.md @@ -1,9 +1,8 @@ # Risk Oriented Estimating -Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]] -which prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to cost certainty, -and determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]] -given [[risk#Risk Tolerance]] +Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]] which +* prioritizes estimating tasks, +* determines necessary [[estimating-detail]] ROE leans heavily on [[expected-value-of-perfect-information]], which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty @@ -13,6 +12,15 @@ ROE does not endorse common shortcuts which round up to "cover" uncertainty, as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost, increasing the probability of loss to a competitor. -Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution). +> Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution). -Actuarial Science +> Actuarial Science + +## Prioritizing Tasks + +ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_. + +## Determining Necessary Detail + +ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]] +given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]]. diff --git a/risk-registers.md b/risk-registers.md deleted file mode 100644 index 61f74a2..0000000 --- a/risk-registers.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,8 +0,0 @@ ---- -tags: - - project-management ---- -# Risk Registers - -Risk Registers are a standard method of documenting [[risk]]. -They are a hallmark of [[project-management-tm]] practice. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/risk.md b/risk.md index a7af1e2..9468033 100644 --- a/risk.md +++ b/risk.md @@ -52,8 +52,15 @@ based on anticipated market conditions. ## Risk Tolerance -Determining risk tolerance is a task usually appropriated by executives, -often based on [[gut-feel]], +Determining risk tolerance is a task usually appropriated by executives +(often based on [[gut-feel]]), but that is better determined mathematically. [Risk of ruin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_of_ruin) + +## Risk Analysis and Management + +### Risk Registers + +Risk Registers are a standard method of documenting [[risk]]. +They are a hallmark of [[project-management-tm]] practice.