From 7fd93d09cad2d9f67de3f809b9d81221b1596005 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Sat, 30 May 2026 21:37:23 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-05-30 21:37:23 --- clear_2018_atomic-habits.md | 1 + periodic/daily/2026-05-28.md | 10 +++++ periodic/daily/2026-05-29.md | 10 +++++ periodic/daily/2026-05-30.md | 10 +++++ timestamped/2026-05-29_18-58-05.md | 19 +++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-30_17-17-11.md | 62 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-30_20-18-01.md | 18 +++++++++ utility.md | 21 +++++++++- 8 files changed, 150 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 periodic/daily/2026-05-28.md create mode 100644 periodic/daily/2026-05-29.md create mode 100644 periodic/daily/2026-05-30.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-29_18-58-05.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-30_17-17-11.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-30_20-18-01.md diff --git a/clear_2018_atomic-habits.md b/clear_2018_atomic-habits.md index 37e6a44..5da84fd 100644 --- a/clear_2018_atomic-habits.md +++ b/clear_2018_atomic-habits.md @@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ tags: author: James Clear published: 2018-10-16 type: book +subtitle: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones --- # Atomic Habits diff --git a/periodic/daily/2026-05-28.md b/periodic/daily/2026-05-28.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..dc31be9 --- /dev/null +++ b/periodic/daily/2026-05-28.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-28 +title: 2026-05-28 +tags: [] +weekly: "[[2026w22]]" +monthly: "[[2026-05]]" +quarterly: "[[2026q2]]" +previous: "[[2026-05-27]]" +--- +# 2026-05-28 diff --git a/periodic/daily/2026-05-29.md b/periodic/daily/2026-05-29.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bb8e174 --- /dev/null +++ b/periodic/daily/2026-05-29.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-29 +title: 2026-05-29 +tags: [] +weekly: "[[2026w22]]" +monthly: "[[2026-05]]" +quarterly: "[[2026q2]]" +previous: "[[2026-05-28]]" +--- +# 2026-05-29 diff --git a/periodic/daily/2026-05-30.md b/periodic/daily/2026-05-30.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a23c163 --- /dev/null +++ b/periodic/daily/2026-05-30.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-30 +title: 2026-05-30 +tags: [] +weekly: "[[2026w22]]" +monthly: "[[2026-05]]" +quarterly: "[[2026q2]]" +previous: "[[2026-05-29]]" +--- +# 2026-05-30 diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-29_18-58-05.md b/timestamped/2026-05-29_18-58-05.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b1c59b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-29_18-58-05.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-29T18:58:05-0400 +title: 2026-05-29 18:58:05 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-29]]" +--- +# 2026-05-29 18:58:05 + +I spend a lot of time thinking about [[construction-estimating]]. + +**Despite how strongly I hold them,** +**I can not clearly articulate my positions on estimating.** +Addressing this issue was the original purpose of [[this-notebook]], +more accurately it's ancestor, which I started 4 years ago. + +**I am not a strong speaker in general.** +I ramble and get lost in tangents. +When I'm asked a question +I often forget it before I finish giving preemptive context for my response. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-30_17-17-11.md b/timestamped/2026-05-30_17-17-11.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cff2249 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-30_17-17-11.md @@ -0,0 +1,62 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-30T17:17:11-0400 +title: 2026-05-30 17:17:11 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-30]]" +--- +# 2026-05-30 17:17:11 + +Valuation of goods and services +as a function of supply and demand +can not adequately explain the behavior of individuals. +The concept of [[utility]], or **satisfaction**, can. + +It is satisfaction, not dollar value, +which influences decision-making. +losing \$100 is usually _more unsatisfying_ +than gaining \$100 is _satisfying_. + +*** + +**[[risk]]** is the possibility of an unsatisfactory outcome. + +If you enter an agreement +which will cost you \$100 to \$120 +\$20 is **at risk**. +We don't say that \$120 is at risk, +because at least \$100 will certainly be spent. + +*** + +I have never installed a gutter. +I have no basis for the cost of the materials +nor the labor hours necessary. +I can therefore never determine +if the service is "worth" the cost quoted to me. + +I can, however, estimate how _satisfied_ I would be +with gutters on my house, +and how _unsatisfied_ paying the quote would make me. +With this information I can determine +if agreeing to the service is net positive: +if I'd be more satisfied than I was before. + +Seeking multiple quotes would only tell me +what other contractors are getting away with charging. + +*** + +Milo has an apple tree in his backyard. +Every August it gives him many buckets of apples, +so many that he could never eat them all himself. + +Milo keeps track of how many apples his tree produces. +Since the tree reached maturity +Milo has has harvested around 300 apples per season, +and always at least 200. +He prefers to keep 100 apples for himself. +The rest he gives to his neighbors, friends, and family. + +*** + +YouTube video title: "Risk Management Explained in n Minutes Using Minecraft" diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-30_20-18-01.md b/timestamped/2026-05-30_20-18-01.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1112af5 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-30_20-18-01.md @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-30T20:18:01-0400 +title: 2026-05-30 20:18:01 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-30]]" +--- +# 2026-05-30 20:18:01 + +## "Record-Breaking Probability" + +[[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Estimating Impact Under Uncertainty]] + +Hubbard doesn't explain the concept +of "record-breaking probability" to my tastes. +more to the point, +he gives special attention to minimum and maximum +when the probability that the next sample will have _any_ rank +is given by 1/(n+1). diff --git a/utility.md b/utility.md index 88c4c3b..5746f9a 100644 --- a/utility.md +++ b/utility.md @@ -11,7 +11,8 @@ tags: is a measure of a party's **satisfaction** with a certain state of the world. -The measure is intended to account for unintuitive quirks of human perception of value. +The measure is intended to account for unintuitive quirks +of human perception of value. A rich man is not as _satisfied_ by receiving one dollar as a poor man would be, therefore the utility of the dollar is contextual, not objective. @@ -38,3 +39,21 @@ and that I've thought about subject to the biases of the party. **Descriptive utility** is utility as determined from the party's behavior. + +## Formulas + +Utility as a function of a gain or loss of some commodity +could be described with a function of the form + +$$ +a\left(1 - \frac{1}{bx + 1}\right) +$$ + +for cases where utility is expected to be bounded, +or where utility is expected to increase infinitely +$\sqrt{ax}$ or $\log_{a}(bx+1)$. + +For all these functions $f(0)=0$, +meaning (as expected) +a net zero gain of the commodity +represents net zero utility.