diff --git a/2025-11-10.md b/2025-11-10.md index 4bc9b85..ad6a93e 100644 --- a/2025-11-10.md +++ b/2025-11-10.md @@ -10,141 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-10 - -# 2025-11-10 06:53:?? - -_Monday Morning Before Work_ - -#original-format/typewritten-print #topic/mindfulness - -I've been trying to be alone with my thoughts more -recently. It's almost bizarre how working in silence -for an hour makes the thought of music or an audio­book -seem overstimulating, It feels right, though. - -To want to converse with myself rather than let my -superego be drowned out by appealing sounds or a -fantasy story I've already heard, or obscure facts -about a game I've never played and never will. - -I still relapse, of course, a lifetime (albeit -a short one) of unhealthy interaction with computers -will do that, but I'm making quick progress. - -I watched a video yesterday that suggested that -it might be my growing understanding of computers -rather than my self discipline that's lead to this -change in the dynamic between me and them. That, -in understanding _how_ they function, I've turned -them from _devices_ into _things_, which lack -the mystical allure of the former. Whatever -the reason, it's good progress as far -as I'm concerned. It feels good to be introspective -and to have time to build skills people care about, -like music and style and... birdwatching... - -# 2025-11-10 10:40:?? - -#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/digital-text - -A significant change from Ace to PDI in my mentality during takeoff -is that I now tend to expect that (within reason) -"holes" in takeoff scripts are _intentional omissions_, -not holes in cost coverage. - -# 2025-11-10 11:14:?? - -#occupational/takeoff #original-format/digital-text - -I was updating my notes, -filling in gaps in scripts based on Joel's, -when I noticed a strange paragraph: - -> [!quote] `OneNote`/`Joel Take-off`/`Misc. Notes` -> Drop Down Ceilings vs. GWB (Gypsum Wall Boards) -> -> Drop down ceiling is technically "Exposed" (the real term should be accessable), -> so Romex and SER is not permited. Will need to use MC. -> -> > [!image] -> > ### 334.12 Uses Not Permitted. -> > -> > #### 334.12(A) Types NM and NMC. -> > -> > Types NM and NMC cables shall not be permitted as follows: -> > -> > 1. In any dwelling or structure not specifically -> > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3) -> > -> > 2. ==Exposed in dropped or suspended ceilings== -> > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings - -This analysis of 334.12(A)(2) is flawed. - -Based on the [[nfpa-70_100_definitions|Article 100]] definitions -of [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Exposed (as applied to wiring methods).|exposed]] -and [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Dwelling, Multifamily.|dwelling]], -[[nfpa-70_334_nm-cable#334.12(A) Types NM and NMC.|334.12(A)(2)]] -can be paraphrased as follows: - -> [!cite] NEC 334.12(A)(2), pp. -> Types NM and NMC cable are not permitted to be installed -> in accessible spaces above suspended ceilings, -> _except in buildings containing one or more dwelling units._ - -The prohibition of 334.12(A)(2) _never_ applies to apartments or condos, -And only applies to hotels and dormitories on a basis of AHJ interpretation -(See [[multi-family-dwellings#Are Hotels Multifamily Dwellings?]]). - -It's unclear to me if this a genuine misunderstanding -or just a [[heuristics|rule of thumb]] to cover the case -that guestrooms are not interpreted to be dwelling units. -If it's the latter, I believe it's far too conservative -to be used whole-cloth on all estimates. - -# 2025-11-10 15:15:?? - -### "Feeder" - -#topic/construction/electrical #original-format/digital-text - -The NEC definition of feeder is quite strict. -I'm certain I misuse it frequently. - -![[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Feeder.]] - -It _does not_ include power conductors to -[[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Utilization Equipment.|utilization equipment]], -those are [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Branch Circuit.|branch circuit]] conductors. - -# 2025-11-10 20:00:?? - -_Monday Evening, Before Bed_ - -#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/typewritten-print - -Today while (a peer) and I were walking, he asked -me what I thought of his qualities as an estimator. -I told him I think he has the right of it, that having beliefs -about what's correct that don't change just because -a senior says they should, is a good sign. - -I can't remember now if I knew it before today, -but my relationship with Dale, my former manager, -while never "good", was much improved when I started -pushing back on his direction and feedback. I became -an estimator, where before I was just someone who -could estimate for him. He hated it, and let me know, -but I never felt more sure of my position. - -Estimating is not a field where you get ahead -by being more technically skilled or efficient. - -You distinguish yourself by convincing your superiors -that you understand the objective and how to achieve -it. The best estimators---as measured by compensation -package---are not doing takeoff, they're -telling other estimators what to take off and how. - -Conquer your self-doubt. Tell your boss they're -wrong and stupid and they should feel bad. Profit. diff --git a/2025-11-11.md b/2025-11-11.md index 94dc8af..163ce6b 100644 --- a/2025-11-11.md +++ b/2025-11-11.md @@ -10,56 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-11 - -# 2025-11-11 06:06:?? - -_Tuesday Morning, Before Work_ - -#topic/estimating #original-format/typewritten-print - -One of the most appealing aspects of estimating -to me is the dynamic we have with our employers. -my experience was at Ace that estimators act like, -and are treated like good artists, like loveable -little scamps who always get into trouble, but -you keep them around because they do good work. -There was no other position with a similar reputation. - -I attribute this strange relationship to two -facts of our role: - -1. Estimating provides executives with a service, - one that they could almost do without, but that they - understand the value of paying for. - -2. Estimating is just math-heavy enough that it - seems like magic to the uninitiated. - -In these ways we're actually more like court -wizards than artists, which is an understandably -desirable position. - -# 2025-11-11 14:41:?? - -#topic/estimating #topic/transparency #original-format/digital-text - -I just saw a post on a construction estimators forum -from a user lamenting that their coworkers and customers -largely do not understand the difference between markup and margin. - -It made me remember the micro-debates about that I would have with Dale -every time we were closing out an estimate. -This is the example I would always give -while trying to explain it to him. - -![[markup-vs-margin#Markup vs. Margin]] - -*** - -The user also stated that they would prefer to list overhead and profit -separately from scope line item costs, -but that their customers push back when they try. - -I'm not sure where they got this preference. -Sure that would be more "transparent", -but it's at odds with the purpose of a breakdown. diff --git a/2025-11-13.md b/2025-11-13.md index 37b8fde..6028b09 100644 --- a/2025-11-13.md +++ b/2025-11-13.md @@ -10,66 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-11-13 - -# 2025-11-13 08:03:?? - -#topic/hobbies/writing - -I was thinking about recent critiques of my writing style -and how they don't really apply to my speech, -even though I don't imagine myself approaching them differently. - -I imagine I _would_ speak like I write, -but that to use the same constructions -would require a level of forethought -that I'm not capable of under the pressure of conversation. - -# 2025-11-13 08:19:?? - -#topic/estimating #occupational - -I'm still working on articulating -my main difficulty in the transition -from Ace to PDI estimating. - -At a high level, -it's that our process is built on _instrumental_ methods, -but that it is frequently judged from a _realist_ perspective. -See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. - -There may be a more accurate way to state this. -[[2025-11-10#2025-11-10 11 14]] may be an example of a similar issue, -where instrumental methods are presented as if they were realist, -causing confusion when the methods are, -as judged from a realist perspective, wrong. - -## 2025-11-13 ??:??:?? - -#occupational - -### Questions for Bid Estimators - -Questions for [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|PDI Bid Estimators]]. - -#### Exclusions - -When we send proposals with significant exclusions -(no lighting control, no demo, no submetering, -even when designed and shown on drawings): - -Is there a conversation happening with our customers -before they receive our proposal? - -Is it clear they understand what we're excluding? - -# 2025-11-13 20:41:?? - -#topic/hobbies/shorthand - -I've decided I've considered learning [[shorthand]] -enough times independently -that I would likely benefit from it. - -I added [[leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand|a book]] -on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand|Gregg Notehand]] -to my calibre library. diff --git a/2025-12-02.md b/2025-12-02.md index dafac0f..9c50dd3 100644 --- a/2025-12-02.md +++ b/2025-12-02.md @@ -10,81 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-12-02 - -# 2025-12-02 10:40:?? - -#topic/construction/electrical - -> [!cite] [Hysteresis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis) -> **Hysteresis** is the dependence of the state of a system on its history. -> For example, a [magnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnet "Magnet") -> may have more than one possible -> [magnetic moment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_moment "Magnetic moment") -> in a given [magnetic field](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_field "Magnetic field"), -> depending on how the field changed in the past. -> Such a system is called **hysteretic**. - -![[alternating-current#Ferroelectric Hysteresis]] - -# 2025-12-02 10:57:?? - -### Set Notation Example - -Let $A$ and $B$ be sets -sharing some but not all elements. - -* $A \cap B \neq \varnothing$: - "The intersection of $A$ and $B$ is nonempty" - (They share at least one element). - -* $A \not\subseteq B$: - "$A$ is not a subset of $B$" - ($A$ has at least one element not in $B$). - Equivalent to $A \setminus B \neq \varnothing$. - -* $B \not\subseteq A$: - "$B$ is not a subset of $A$" - ($B$ has at least one element not in $A$). - Equivalent to $B \setminus A \neq \varnothing$. - -# 2025-12-02 13:20:?? - -### Panel Schedule Relationship Diagram - -#### Sections - -A panelboard with multiple sections -may or may not have multiple schedules. -`PANEL A1 SEC 1` - -#### Typical Schedules - -Schedules may be typical of multiple panelboards -`PANEL H(2-6)` - -# 2025-12-02 15:35:?? - -### Bluebeam Model Context Protocol Tools - -* add_view_port -* color_process_analyze -* color_process_modify -* count -* create_bookmarks -* create_markup_thumbnail -* get_markup_state -* get_page_count -* get_page_information -* list_markups_in_pdf -* list_state_models_in_pdf -* list_studio_projects -* list_studio_sessions -* open_file -* redact -* save_as_text -* search_and_markup -* set_markup_property -* set_markup_state -* set_page_labels -* stamp -* studio_project_search diff --git a/2025-12-16.md b/2025-12-16.md index 7279f64..4063ca0 100644 --- a/2025-12-16.md +++ b/2025-12-16.md @@ -10,15 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-12-16 - -# 2025-12-16 09:20:52 - -[Probability Management](https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/) - -[Handbook of Decision Analysis | Wiley Online Books](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118515853) - -# 2025-12-16 20:04:?? - -### Metalog Distributions - -[Metalog Distributions]http://www.metalogdistributions.com/home.html) diff --git a/2025-12-17.md b/2025-12-17.md index 0750523..1051981 100644 --- a/2025-12-17.md +++ b/2025-12-17.md @@ -10,85 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-12-17 - -# 2025-12-17 05:39:?? - -One aspect of estimating that I find most interesting, -but that is criminally understudied, -is the effect of building dimensions -(footprint shape, floor area, stories, height) -on total cost. - -Unfortunately, lack of interest in the subject extends beyond estimating. -Discourse on spatial data seems to fall into one of two bins: -* civil engineering -* n-dimensional mathematics[^1] -neither are readily applicable to building construction. - -[^1]: worse still, the "space" studied in such disciplines is - [vector space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_space) - where "distance" is a measure of similarity - and physical geometry is rarely considered. - -Of the two, pure math would be be preferred--- -being generally more rigorous--- -but the first bin far outweighs the second. -See the difference in content from -[geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics) -to the conceivably far more broad -[spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics). - -> [!quote] [Geographic data and information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_data_and_information) -> **Spatial data** or **spatial information** is broader class of data -> whose geometry is relevant -> but it is not necessarily [georeferenced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georeferenced "Georeferenced"), -> such as in computer-aided design (CAD), -> see [geometric modeling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_modeling "Geometric modeling"). - -### Ambiguity - -New Note: [[ambiguity]] - -# 2025-12-17 12:32:?? - -#topic/ambiguity - -A while ago I heard a minor coding influencer lament -that frameworks, packages, and tools -often have ridiculous sounding names[^2] -when, he suggests, they ought to just be called what they do. - -[^2]: `bubble-tea` and `ratatui` - (libraries for creating CLI's) come to my mind - -Unfortunately some people and organizations agree with him, -giving us terms which mean both something very general -and something very specific.[^3] - -[^3]: [[project-management-tm|"Project Management"]] - was my go to example, but weak - because it's difficult for me to articulate - the difference from construction project management - especially to someone unfamiliar with the specifics of either. - -For lack of a better term I've been thinking of this as an SEO problem, -but the bigger problem is that it invites [[ambiguity#Category Mistake|Category Mistake]], -whereby the ignorant listener associates traits unique to the example -to all things that the name could describe. - -I thought to finally write about this problem -while researching [[lighting-controls#Protocols|lighting control protocols]]. -The two most dominant examples: - -* [[lighting-controls#^dali|"Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (DALI)"]] -* [[lighting-controls#^dmx|"Digital Multiplex (DMX)"]] - -while notably different in topology, -could both be described accurately with the other's name. - -> It is possible to avoid this problem -> without the effort necessary to come up with a clever name. -> Just stick an arbitrary, but reasonably unique word -> in front of the generic description. -> A person's name ("John's Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (JDALI)") -> or your favorite animal ("Heron Digital Multiplex (HDMX)") are good options. diff --git a/2025-12-18.md b/2025-12-18.md index 0251f70..8e762c7 100644 --- a/2025-12-18.md +++ b/2025-12-18.md @@ -10,58 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-12-18 - -# 2025-12-18 08:32:18 - -[[uncertainty-in-construction-estimating]] - -# 2025-12-18 10:38:?? - -#topic/meta - -I definitively think my new approach -of putting nascent ideas in [[periodic-notes|daily notes]] -rather than separate fleeting notes -is superior. - -The unfortunate reality is I'll never look at most of them again, -so better that they don't crowd out my main notes. - -# 2025-12-18 14:18:?? - -### Estimating Golf - -What interests me most in [[construction-estimating]] -is an idea you might call "estimating golf": -the goal is to produce a satisfactory[^1] estimate, -but the estimator can not view the project documents -and must instead ask questions about the job -(answerable in a sentence or less) -of a neutral party ("the reader"). -The estimator fails if the estimate is unsatisfactory[^1], -but otherwise is scored by number of questions asked. - -[^1]: satisfactory in terms of accuracy and precision, - according to the standards of the organization. - a control estimate must be prepared accordingly - by a neutral party ("the control"). - -You could further imagine different brackets -for required accuracy and precision, -whether organization historicals are freely available -or must be questioned like project details. - -The most interesting part of this problem is choosing when to stop, -since it requires one to estimate their certainty of their estimate. - -# 2025-12-18 15:22:?? - -PDI has moved up the schedule to transition to Accubid Anywhere -and will be signing a contract with Trimble in late January. - -[Drawer AI | Automated Electrical Takeoff & Estimating](https://drawer.ai/) - -# 2025-12-18 15:30:?? - -[Kip (unit) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kip_\(unit\)) -[Construction Cost Estimating](https://www.quantity-takeoff.com/index.htm) diff --git a/2025-12-19.md b/2025-12-19.md index 830f054..6ba4e07 100644 --- a/2025-12-19.md +++ b/2025-12-19.md @@ -10,31 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2025-12-19 - -# 2025-12-19 06:22:?? - -[[music-theory-as-code]] - -# 2025-12-19 10:44:?? - -#occupational/takeoff - -> [!quote] Art Baldwin 2025-12-19, in reference to Howard University East Towers (pp.) -> When using PVC slab box assemblies where substantial insulation -> (e.g mineral wool, spray foam) is to be applied, -> add extension rings to compensate for the thickness - -# 2025-12-19 10:44:?? - -#occupational/takeoff - -This week (2025w51) -William Bonn, as part of [[units-takeoff]] for Howard University East Towers, -used an `Area` "Typical - Unit Balconies" for `Phase` "UNIT - RESIDENTIAL" takeoff. -Our senior Joel Jansen approved of the method. - -I'd like to use the method tentatively for takeoff strictly typical of all units -(e.g. master switches, MSDE's, etc.), -but there is potential for significant efficiency gains -in treating units like panelboards in [[switchgear-takeoff]]: -picking one unit type to be typical of many nearly identical types. diff --git a/2026-01-02.md b/2026-01-02.md index c9557c3..b29b07a 100644 --- a/2026-01-02.md +++ b/2026-01-02.md @@ -10,32 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-02 - -# 2026-01-02 10:10:18 - -### Harborside Plaza 4 - -#### TODO - -* [ ] [[electrical-takeoff|Electrical]] -* [x] [[telecom-takeoff#Backbone Riser|Telecom Backbone]] -* [x] [[distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff|DAS]] - -# 2026-01-02 19:21:?? - -Without apparent prompt I was reminded of a practical joke -that my fellow apprentice Joe used to play often -that never failed to get a laugh out of me: - -Mid-conversation Joe would stop suddenly, -search in his pockets or tool belt, -pull out a random object (usually his lineman's pliers), -and act as if he had received a phone call on it. -Often the other party had apparently dialed in error, -and Joe would say, "Hello?... Hello?" -before deciding they'd hung up. -Other times he'd step away (only one step) -and have whole conversations. - -Try as I might have, -I could never pull it off like he could. diff --git a/2026-01-06.md b/2026-01-06.md index 4d620d3..3bcf9b3 100644 --- a/2026-01-06.md +++ b/2026-01-06.md @@ -10,117 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-06 - -# 2026-01-06 07:47:?? - -### _Let Them Theory_ Theory - -1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior - which they consciously believe to be benevolent - -2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior, - others appreciate it - -3. Person feels that they are doing a service - by not engaging in said toxic behavior - -# 2026-01-06 10:00:?? - -Paraphrased Teams conversation with a peer -about [[distribution-designations#Terminations]]. -Peer's messages are in block quotes. - -*** - -> Good morning! -> Do you add branch terminations to panelboards? -> If so, how does your 'distribution' section looks? - -Morning! Yes to the first question, ? to the second - -> As all panelboards on a job don't have the same size/# of terminations, -> I assume you would have a plethora of same size boards in the job, with different terms. -> How do you list them? - -| | Designation | Status | Quantity | -| --- | ----------------------------- | ------ | -------- | -| 1 | Generator - 350kW, Diesel | | 1 | -| 2 | Generator - 2000kW, Diesel | | 1 | -| 3 | ATS - 200A | | 2 | -| 4 | ATS - 250A | | 1 | -| 5 | ATS - 400A | | 2 | -| 6 | ATS - 600A | | 2 | -| 7 | ATS - 800A | | 1 | -| 8 | ATS - 1000A | | 1 | -| 9 | Panelboard - 50A, 1-Section | | 1 | -| 10 | Panelboard - 100A, 1-Section | | 18 | -| 11 | Panelboard - 125A, 1-Section | | 26 | -| 12 | Panelboard - 150A, 1-Section | | 2 | -| 13 | Panelboard - 225A, 1-Section | | 11 | -| 14 | Panelboard - 225A, 2-Section | | 5 | -| 15 | Panelboard - 400A, 1-Section | | 2 | -| 16 | Panelboard - 400A, 2-Section | | 3 | -| 17 | Panelboard - 400A, 3-Section | | 5 | -| 18 | Panelboard - 600A, 2-Section | | 1 | -| 19 | Panelboard - 800A, 1-Section | | 1 | -| 20 | Panelboard - 1200A, 1-Section | | 2 | -| 21 | Panelboard - 1200A, 2-Section | | 1 | -| 22 | Panelboard - 3000A, 1-Section | | 1 | -| 23 | CT Cabinet | | | -| 24 | Power Monitor | | 82 | -| 25 | SPD/TVSS | | 2 | - -> Ah, so you just chuck in a lot # of terms per board and call it good? - -Essentially. -Ben's direction was to pick a schedule -on the upper end of terms for each size panel -to be representative of the rest. -At my old place I would have made a designation for each panel, -I'm not upset to leave that behind. -I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once -and keep it in a temp job. -I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway -so I just use the actual average. - -> Thank you for that. -> Joel wagged his finger at me about missing terms this morning--- -> I wanted to see how it's preferred. -> I was told terms are captured by feeders/mech connections -> and have never added them to panelboards. -> -> That would be the best way, finding the actual average. - -The mech connection assemblies have the load side term, -the feeder assemblies have both sides, -the branch assemblies don't have either, -that's why he got you, I think. - -I don't think my way is best -unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons. -Lot of effort for a marginal increase in certainty above a heuristic like Ben's. - -I'm working on a job Noah started now, -he made certain panels separate from what I assume is the average -and labeled them with the name of the panel. -If I had a job where some were significantly more full than others -I _might_ do something similar, -but I'd probably name them -"... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead. -But that's a lot of mental overhead. - -# 2026-01-06 10:57:?? - -Tracking contractor growth by project square footage -rather than contract value dollars. -Account for market shifts and regional differences. - -Problematic for other than new residential construction. -Do you count site area? -Out of contract building area for renovations? - -Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow. - -Seems imminently gameable. -See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]] -and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]]. diff --git a/2026-01-07.md b/2026-01-07.md index cd4f06b..7d745a5 100644 --- a/2026-01-07.md +++ b/2026-01-07.md @@ -10,125 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-07 - -# 2026-01-07 06:41:?? - -> [!quote] _The Shadow of the Torturer_, Chapter 17: "The Challenge" -> No intellect is needed to see those figures who wait beyond the void of death--- -> every child is aware of them, blazing with glories dark or bright, -> wrapped in authority older than the universe. -> They are the stuff of our earliest dreams, as of our dying visions. -> Rightly we feel our lives guided by them, -> and rightly too we feel how little we matter to them, -> the builders of the unimaginable, -> the fighters of wars beyond the totality of existence. -> -> The difficulty lies in learning that we ourselves encompass forces equally great. -> We say, "I will," and "I will not," and imagine ourselves -> (though we obey the orders of some prosaic person every day) our own masters, -> when the truth is that our masters are sleeping. -> One wakes within us and we are ridden like beasts, -> though the rider is but some hitherto unguessed part of ourselves. - -# 2026-01-07 10:03:?? - -At Ace, "residential" always meant single-family/duplex construction, -but I think now we were the outliers. - -# 2026-01-07 10:05:?? - -See [[pdi-breakdowns#Location]]. - -I have---for some time now--- -been trying to figure out the purpose of the non-system breakdowns. - -[[location-vs-scope]] - -Perhaps there is another dichotomy -in that an estimator may use the area classifications of the design -or according to their own understanding of each term. -For lack of a better example, -whether a "101 - KITCHEN", without provisions for cooking, -would be broken down under "Kitchen". - -# 2026-01-07 10:42:?? - -When I got to work today Art admonished a fellow estimator -for not uploading _all_ of a project's drawings, -even those they did not intend to take off, to Trimble Connect. -Art suggested that the estimator should upload all the drawings, -but only add them to LiveCount as needed. - -I take issue with the suggestion on principle -since doing so would not benefit the estimator or their senior -(if they aren't added, the estimator can do nothing with them), -but would require not-insignificant effort. -Effort that would ultimately benefit no one:--- - -Trimble Connect's ham-fisted approach to version control -means that the fewer times it must be used, the better. - -> I'm currently dealing with the headache of an estimate -> where such caution was not applied. - -The probability that any construction will be performed -according the drawings that we take off -(or even their immediate successors) -I suspect is slim to zero. -That Ops would have the patience to add the revisions, -fighting with Trimble Connect as they would be, -I suspect is even less. - -> On my current project, after trying in vain to play by Trimble's rules, -> I started by deleting all the drawings I could -> (those without takeoff associated with them) -> then reuploaded the revised set. -> I'm confident that this would be the dominant strategy. - -*** - -It's curious to me that the possibility of scope revisions -doesn't seem to be at the front of every estimator's mind -when doing takeoff or considering process changes, -like it was for my mentors and peers at Ace. - -# 2026-01-07 12:13:?? - -#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization - -Just now Jorge admonished another peer -for using insulated wire for pool bonding, -his rational was flawed beyond saving -(something about the difference between bonding and grounding), -but stemmed from a frustratingly common misunderstanding -that our Accubid assemblies are intended to be an accurate list -of the material to be installed. - -They are not. -If they were intended to be accurate, -there would need to be several times as many. -They are a compromise between accuracy and estimator effort. -It should be assumed that for common scope, -at least one assembly should be acceptable as-is. - -Pool bonding is required for at least a quarter of our jobs. -We have no bonding assemblies with bare wire. -Therefore it must be assumed that it was determined -that it would be acceptable to represent bare wire bonding with insulated wire items, -because otherwise it would be necessary to have double the assemblies, -or to expect estimators to substitute each size of wire -everywhere bare was necessary. - -See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. - -# 2026-01-07 16:03:?? - -#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization - -There is a palpable animosity for [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]] -in [[pdi-estimating#Construction Estimating (ConEst)|ConEst]], -stemming---I believe---from an lack of buy-in on Bid's part. -Their lack is easily explained by their [[estimating-culture#Incentives|incentive structure]]: -Since throughput is systematically prioritized over accuracy, -ConEst has a strictly antagonistic role -because it slows down the bid process. diff --git a/2026-01-08.md b/2026-01-08.md index 0fed691..6413c28 100644 --- a/2026-01-08.md +++ b/2026-01-08.md @@ -10,46 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-08 - -# 2026-01-08 13:33:34 - -### 2100 Crystal Drive Takeoff Review - -#### Generators - -> [!failure] -> Generators were erroneously broken down in switchgear. - -[[switchgear-takeoff#Generator|Generator]] - -#### Switchgear - -Switchgear cost comp -"\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\11 Bid Estimating Spreadsheets\Switchgear Pricing Tool Version 2 (2.02.2024) (Template) - Copy.xls" - -Includes -* submetering -* coordination study - -#### Composite Cleanup - -1 day per week - -$$ -\text{Average Weeks Per Month} = -$$ - -> It occurs to me I don't know all the rules of our calendar -> [Gregorian calendar - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregorian_calendar) - -#### Temp Power - -$10,000 per [[heavy-equipment#Swing Stage Scaffolding|swing stage]] - -[[temp-power-takeoff]] - -#### Unit Typicals - -I asked Joel about using unit typicals as described in -[[2025-12-19#2025-12-19 10:44]]. -He stated that would be acceptable. diff --git a/2026-01-09.md b/2026-01-09.md index e9bb7e0..76bd818 100644 --- a/2026-01-09.md +++ b/2026-01-09.md @@ -10,105 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-09 - -# 2026-01-09 10:00:03 - -### 2100 Crystal Drive - -`#600 ? WHITE ?` had incorrect sort codes. - -#### Lighting Control - -I took off lighting per plans (E510) -in spite of proposal stating "local control". -Will have to be changed. - -#### Labor Factor - -Fire Alarm -Switchgear -Feeders -Subfeeds -Corridors -Amenity -Retail -Units - -#### Fixtures - -> [!failure] -> Several fixtures were erroneously based on NM cable. - -I built some fixtures with \#12/3 in areas with emergency lighting -to be an unswitched hot. -Joel is having me change them to \#12/2. - -#### Units - -> [!failure] -> One unit type typical was missing `Area` quantities. -> Another had no takeoff. - -#### Labor Plan - -$$ -\mathbb{E}\left[\frac{\text{Hours Per Unit}}{\text{Openings Per Unit}}\right] \approx .75~\text{Hours Per Opening} -$$ - -High Rise .110--.120 hr/sqft - -# 2026-01-09 12:00:?? - -$$ -\begin{gather*} -\frac{146097}{400} = 365.2425~\text{Days Per Year} \ -\frac{20871}{400} = 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year} \ -\frac{6957}{1600} = 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month} -\end{gather*} -$$ - -$$ -\frac{365.2425~\text{Days Per Year}}{7~\text{Days Per Week}} -= 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year} -$$ - -$$ -\frac{52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}}{12~\text{Months Per Year}} -= 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month} -$$ - -# 2026-01-09 14:45:?? - -[[bid-price-modeling]] - -Suppose a true cost model, -accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$. - -$C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter) -decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value. -$t>0$ is time until the final payment. - -> ![250](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png) -> -> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter) -> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter). - -# 2026-01-09 16:28:?? - -### Occam's razor - -> [!info] Also Known As -> * the principle of parsimony -> * the law of parsimony - -recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. -Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian. - -> _Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem_ -> ("Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity") - -> "Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred." - -> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#4.2 The Role of Parameters]] -> The principle of parsimony states that the simplest model -> that adequately reflects reality should be used. diff --git a/2026-01-11.md b/2026-01-11.md index ea071e8..40b3228 100644 --- a/2026-01-11.md +++ b/2026-01-11.md @@ -10,61 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-11 - -# 2026-01-11 09:00:?? - -[[2026-01-09#2026-01-09 14:45]] - -[[bid-price-modeling]] - -[[decrease-in-sigma]] - -# 2026-01-11 11:00:?? - -![[favorite-quotes#"It Takes an Engineer to Build a Bridge that Barely Stands"]] - -The value that estimators provide for a contractor -is in modeling project cost. -If the goal were simply to present a number the cost will not exceed, -than anyone could be an estimator. -If the goal were only to present a reasonably accurate figure, -with no other constraints, -then there are few who in the world who couldn't, -given infinite time for a single bid. -The _true_ value of an estimator, then, -is in their ability to model project cost _efficiently_, that is, -to achieve _acceptable_ accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,--- -much as the engineer's is in building a bridge that _meets_ the requirements -as cheaply as possible. - -Estimating "as accurately as possible" -is akin to building a bridge "as strong as possible"; -it sounds nice, but ignores the actual objective of _optimal cost-efficiency_. - -I think that most estimators believe this to be the case, -but, whatever they believe in mind, they believe in practice -that the goal is to model cost as accurately and precisely as possible, -_given the time allowed for bid_. -Estimates tend always to take exactly as many weeks as until the bid due date, -even those of significantly different turnaround but equal scope and complexity. -This behavior is objectionable, -since if an acceptable estimate _could_ be provided in two weeks, -it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2] - -[^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids. - -[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates - including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed - (each with confidence estimates), - uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]], - they may have reasonable basis to set sliding standards for estimate precision - to be specifically determined at consideration of the opportunity for bid - according to current climate (i.e. their transient risk appetite). - I believe my use of the absolute is still fair: - No contractor is doing that, so they lack a competent measure of risk tolerance - besides continuing to tolerate what they have historically. - -> [!important] -> Objectionable as it is, -> it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them -> when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined. diff --git a/2026-01-15.md b/2026-01-15.md index 49ce2b8..d9495a4 100644 --- a/2026-01-15.md +++ b/2026-01-15.md @@ -10,14 +10,3 @@ tags: dg-publish: true --- # 2026-01-15 - -# 2026-01-15 08:11:10 - -Follow-up to [[2026-01-12#2026-01-12 12:23|2026-01-12 12:23]] - -Left Apartment at 05:30, at terminal around 06:10. - -# 2026-01-15 08:15:?? - -[[2025-11-13#2025-11-13 08:19]] -I spoke to a peer about this yesterday. diff --git a/fixture-designations.md b/fixture-designations.md index dbb75cf..32dbfd0 100644 --- a/fixture-designations.md +++ b/fixture-designations.md @@ -158,10 +158,13 @@ Separate these fixtures by labor, not length B - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hr (0-17ft) - MC #12 40ft _ *** Interior Amenity *** -IA - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hr (0-17ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft +IA - Surface (Tape) = 1.0hr (00-17ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft IA - Surface (Tape) = 2.0hr (18-29ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft IA - Surface (Tape) = 3.0hr (30-41ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft IA - Surface (Tape) = 4.0hr (42-53ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft +IA - Surface (Tape) = 5.0hr (54-65ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft +IA - Surface (Tape) = 6.0hr (66-77ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft +IA - Surface (Tape) = 7.0hr (78-89ft) - MC+LV #12 40ft ``` ## Recessed diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-10_06-53-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-10_06-53-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b6011bf --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-10_06-53-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +# 2025-11-10 06:53:?? + +_Monday Morning Before Work_ + +#original-format/typewritten-print #topic/mindfulness + +I've been trying to be alone with my thoughts more +recently. It's almost bizarre how working in silence +for an hour makes the thought of music or an audio­book +seem overstimulating, It feels right, though. + +To want to converse with myself rather than let my +superego be drowned out by appealing sounds or a +fantasy story I've already heard, or obscure facts +about a game I've never played and never will. + +I still relapse, of course, a lifetime (albeit +a short one) of unhealthy interaction with computers +will do that, but I'm making quick progress. + +I watched a video yesterday that suggested that +it might be my growing understanding of computers +rather than my self discipline that's lead to this +change in the dynamic between me and them. That, +in understanding _how_ they function, I've turned +them from _devices_ into _things_, which lack +the mystical allure of the former. Whatever +the reason, it's good progress as far +as I'm concerned. It feels good to be introspective +and to have time to build skills people care about, +like music and style and... birdwatching... \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-10_10-40-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-10_10-40-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ba5ab98 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-10_10-40-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +# 2025-11-10 10:40:?? + +#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/digital-text + +A significant change from Ace to PDI in my mentality during takeoff +is that I now tend to expect that (within reason) +"holes" in takeoff scripts are _intentional omissions_, +not holes in cost coverage. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-10_11-14-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-10_11-14-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f23ce1b --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-10_11-14-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +# 2025-11-10 11:14:?? + +#occupational/takeoff #original-format/digital-text + +I was updating my notes, +filling in gaps in scripts based on Joel's, +when I noticed a strange paragraph: + +> [!quote] `OneNote`/`Joel Take-off`/`Misc. Notes` +> Drop Down Ceilings vs. GWB (Gypsum Wall Boards) +> +> Drop down ceiling is technically "Exposed" (the real term should be accessable), +> so Romex and SER is not permited. Will need to use MC. +> +> > [!image] +> > ### 334.12 Uses Not Permitted. +> > +> > #### 334.12(A) Types NM and NMC. +> > +> > Types NM and NMC cables shall not be permitted as follows: +> > +> > 1. In any dwelling or structure not specifically +> > permitted in 334.10(1), (2), (3) +> > +> > 2. ==Exposed in dropped or suspended ceilings== +> > in other than one- and two-family and multifamily dwellings + +This analysis of 334.12(A)(2) is flawed. + +Based on the [[nfpa-70_100_definitions|Article 100]] definitions +of [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Exposed (as applied to wiring methods).|exposed]] +and [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Dwelling, Multifamily.|dwelling]], +[[nfpa-70_334_nm-cable#334.12(A) Types NM and NMC.|334.12(A)(2)]] +can be paraphrased as follows: + +> [!cite] NEC 334.12(A)(2), pp. +> Types NM and NMC cable are not permitted to be installed +> in accessible spaces above suspended ceilings, +> _except in buildings containing one or more dwelling units._ + +The prohibition of 334.12(A)(2) _never_ applies to apartments or condos, +And only applies to hotels and dormitories on a basis of AHJ interpretation +(See [[multi-family-dwellings#Are Hotels Multifamily Dwellings?]]). + +It's unclear to me if this a genuine misunderstanding +or just a [[heuristics|rule of thumb]] to cover the case +that guestrooms are not interpreted to be dwelling units. +If it's the latter, I believe it's far too conservative +to be used whole-cloth on all estimates. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-10_15-15-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-10_15-15-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3c4e1bb --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-10_15-15-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +# 2025-11-10 15:15:?? + +### "Feeder" + +#topic/construction/electrical #original-format/digital-text + +The NEC definition of feeder is quite strict. +I'm certain I misuse it frequently. + +![[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Feeder.]] + +It _does not_ include power conductors to +[[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Utilization Equipment.|utilization equipment]], +those are [[nfpa-70_100_definitions#Branch Circuit.|branch circuit]] conductors. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-10_20-00-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-10_20-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d16edc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-10_20-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +# 2025-11-10 20:00:?? + +_Monday Evening, Before Bed_ + +#topic/estimating #occupational #original-format/typewritten-print + +Today while (a peer) and I were walking, he asked +me what I thought of his qualities as an estimator. +I told him I think he has the right of it, that having beliefs +about what's correct that don't change just because +a senior says they should, is a good sign. + +I can't remember now if I knew it before today, +but my relationship with Dale, my former manager, +while never "good", was much improved when I started +pushing back on his direction and feedback. I became +an estimator, where before I was just someone who +could estimate for him. He hated it, and let me know, +but I never felt more sure of my position. + +Estimating is not a field where you get ahead +by being more technically skilled or efficient. + +You distinguish yourself by convincing your superiors +that you understand the objective and how to achieve +it. The best estimators---as measured by compensation +package---are not doing takeoff, they're +telling other estimators what to take off and how. + +Conquer your self-doubt. Tell your boss they're +wrong and stupid and they should feel bad. Profit. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-11_06-06-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-11_06-06-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3a7ca14 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-11_06-06-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +# 2025-11-11 06:06:?? + +_Tuesday Morning, Before Work_ + +#topic/estimating #original-format/typewritten-print + +One of the most appealing aspects of estimating +to me is the dynamic we have with our employers. +my experience was at Ace that estimators act like, +and are treated like good artists, like loveable +little scamps who always get into trouble, but +you keep them around because they do good work. +There was no other position with a similar reputation. + +I attribute this strange relationship to two +facts of our role: + +1. Estimating provides executives with a service, + one that they could almost do without, but that they + understand the value of paying for. + +2. Estimating is just math-heavy enough that it + seems like magic to the uninitiated. + +In these ways we're actually more like court +wizards than artists, which is an understandably +desirable position. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-11_14-41-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-11_14-41-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..33c107b --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-11_14-41-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +# 2025-11-11 14:41:?? + +#topic/estimating #topic/transparency #original-format/digital-text + +I just saw a post on a construction estimators forum +from a user lamenting that their coworkers and customers +largely do not understand the difference between markup and margin. + +It made me remember the micro-debates about that I would have with Dale +every time we were closing out an estimate. +This is the example I would always give +while trying to explain it to him. + +![[markup-vs-margin#Markup vs. Margin]] + +*** + +The user also stated that they would prefer to list overhead and profit +separately from scope line item costs, +but that their customers push back when they try. + +I'm not sure where they got this preference. +Sure that would be more "transparent", +but it's at odds with the purpose of a breakdown. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-13_00-00-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-13_00-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e69de29 diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-03-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-03-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a3af7e5 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-03-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +# 2025-11-13 08:03:?? + +#topic/hobbies/writing + +I was thinking about recent critiques of my writing style +and how they don't really apply to my speech, +even though I don't imagine myself approaching them differently. + +I imagine I _would_ speak like I write, +but that to use the same constructions +would require a level of forethought +that I'm not capable of under the pressure of conversation. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-19-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-19-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e43287 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-13_08-19-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +# 2025-11-13 08:19:?? + +#topic/estimating #occupational + +I'm still working on articulating +my main difficulty in the transition +from Ace to PDI estimating. + +At a high level, +it's that our process is built on _instrumental_ methods, +but that it is frequently judged from a _realist_ perspective. +See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. + +There may be a more accurate way to state this. +[[2025-11-10#2025-11-10 11 14]] may be an example of a similar issue, +where instrumental methods are presented as if they were realist, +causing confusion when the methods are, +as judged from a realist perspective, wrong. + +## 2025-11-13 ??:??:?? + +#occupational + +### Questions for Bid Estimators + +Questions for [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|PDI Bid Estimators]]. + +#### Exclusions + +When we send proposals with significant exclusions +(no lighting control, no demo, no submetering, +even when designed and shown on drawings): + +Is there a conversation happening with our customers +before they receive our proposal? + +Is it clear they understand what we're excluding? \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-13_20-41-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-13_20-41-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f1357c8 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-13_20-41-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +# 2025-11-13 20:41:?? + +#topic/hobbies/shorthand + +I've decided I've considered learning [[shorthand]] +enough times independently +that I would likely benefit from it. + +I added [[leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand|a book]] +on [[shorthand#Gregg Notehand|Gregg Notehand]] +to my calibre library. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-40-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-40-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..420998d --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-40-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +# 2025-12-02 10:40:?? + +#topic/construction/electrical + +> [!cite] [Hysteresis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis) +> **Hysteresis** is the dependence of the state of a system on its history. +> For example, a [magnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnet "Magnet") +> may have more than one possible +> [magnetic moment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_moment "Magnetic moment") +> in a given [magnetic field](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_field "Magnetic field"), +> depending on how the field changed in the past. +> Such a system is called **hysteretic**. + +![[alternating-current#Ferroelectric Hysteresis]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-57-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-57-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b5e529f --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-02_10-57-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +# 2025-12-02 10:57:?? + +### Set Notation Example + +Let $A$ and $B$ be sets +sharing some but not all elements. + +* $A \cap B \neq \varnothing$: + "The intersection of $A$ and $B$ is nonempty" + (They share at least one element). + +* $A \not\subseteq B$: + "$A$ is not a subset of $B$" + ($A$ has at least one element not in $B$). + Equivalent to $A \setminus B \neq \varnothing$. + +* $B \not\subseteq A$: + "$B$ is not a subset of $A$" + ($B$ has at least one element not in $A$). + Equivalent to $B \setminus A \neq \varnothing$. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-02_13-20-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-02_13-20-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4efb9f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-02_13-20-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +# 2025-12-02 13:20:?? + +### Panel Schedule Relationship Diagram + +#### Sections + +A panelboard with multiple sections +may or may not have multiple schedules. +`PANEL A1 SEC 1` + +#### Typical Schedules + +Schedules may be typical of multiple panelboards +`PANEL H(2-6)` diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-16_09-20-52.md b/timestamped/2025-12-16_09-20-52.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f41ec4 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-16_09-20-52.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# 2025-12-16 09:20:52 + +[Probability Management](https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/) + +[Handbook of Decision Analysis | Wiley Online Books](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118515853) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-16_20-04-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-16_20-04-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d2e4c26 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-16_20-04-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# 2025-12-16 20:04:?? + +### Metalog Distributions + +[Metalog Distributions]http://www.metalogdistributions.com/home.html) diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-17_05-39-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-17_05-39-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..89e1886 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-17_05-39-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +# 2025-12-17 05:39:?? + +One aspect of estimating that I find most interesting, +but that is criminally understudied, +is the effect of building dimensions +(footprint shape, floor area, stories, height) +on total cost. + +Unfortunately, lack of interest in the subject extends beyond estimating. +Discourse on spatial data seems to fall into one of two bins: +* civil engineering +* n-dimensional mathematics[^1] +neither are readily applicable to building construction. + +[^1]: worse still, the "space" studied in such disciplines is + [vector space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_space) + where "distance" is a measure of similarity + and physical geometry is rarely considered. + +Of the two, pure math would be be preferred--- +being generally more rigorous--- +but the first bin far outweighs the second. +See the difference in content from +[geostatistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostatistics) +to the conceivably far more broad +[spatial statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_statistics). + +> [!quote] [Geographic data and information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_data_and_information) +> **Spatial data** or **spatial information** is broader class of data +> whose geometry is relevant +> but it is not necessarily [georeferenced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georeferenced "Georeferenced"), +> such as in computer-aided design (CAD), +> see [geometric modeling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_modeling "Geometric modeling"). + +### Ambiguity + +New Note: [[ambiguity]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-17_12-32-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-17_12-32-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..58f5f76 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-17_12-32-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +# 2025-12-17 12:32:?? + +#topic/ambiguity + +A while ago I heard a minor coding influencer lament +that frameworks, packages, and tools +often have ridiculous sounding names[^2] +when, he suggests, they ought to just be called what they do. + +[^2]: `bubble-tea` and `ratatui` + (libraries for creating CLI's) come to my mind + +Unfortunately some people and organizations agree with him, +giving us terms which mean both something very general +and something very specific.[^3] + +[^3]: [[project-management-tm|"Project Management"]] + was my go to example, but weak + because it's difficult for me to articulate + the difference from construction project management + especially to someone unfamiliar with the specifics of either. + +For lack of a better term I've been thinking of this as an SEO problem, +but the bigger problem is that it invites [[ambiguity#Category Mistake|Category Mistake]], +whereby the ignorant listener associates traits unique to the example +to all things that the name could describe. + +I thought to finally write about this problem +while researching [[lighting-controls#Protocols|lighting control protocols]]. +The two most dominant examples: + +* [[lighting-controls#^dali|"Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (DALI)"]] +* [[lighting-controls#^dmx|"Digital Multiplex (DMX)"]] + +while notably different in topology, +could both be described accurately with the other's name. + +> It is possible to avoid this problem +> without the effort necessary to come up with a clever name. +> Just stick an arbitrary, but reasonably unique word +> in front of the generic description. +> A person's name ("John's Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (JDALI)") +> or your favorite animal ("Heron Digital Multiplex (HDMX)") are good options. diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-18_08-32-18.md b/timestamped/2025-12-18_08-32-18.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fed9aff --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-18_08-32-18.md @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +# 2025-12-18 08:32:18 + +[[uncertainty-in-construction-estimating]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-18_10-38-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-18_10-38-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0c74a4c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-18_10-38-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +# 2025-12-18 10:38:?? + +#topic/meta + +I definitively think my new approach +of putting nascent ideas in [[periodic-notes|daily notes]] +rather than separate fleeting notes +is superior. + +The unfortunate reality is I'll never look at most of them again, +so better that they don't crowd out my main notes. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-18_14-18-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-18_14-18-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..11a1c8f --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-18_14-18-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +# 2025-12-18 14:18:?? + +### Estimating Golf + +What interests me most in [[construction-estimating]] +is an idea you might call "estimating golf": +the goal is to produce a satisfactory[^1] estimate, +but the estimator can not view the project documents +and must instead ask questions about the job +(answerable in a sentence or less) +of a neutral party ("the reader"). +The estimator fails if the estimate is unsatisfactory[^1], +but otherwise is scored by number of questions asked. + +[^1]: satisfactory in terms of accuracy and precision, + according to the standards of the organization. + a control estimate must be prepared accordingly + by a neutral party ("the control"). + +You could further imagine different brackets +for required accuracy and precision, +whether organization historicals are freely available +or must be questioned like project details. + +The most interesting part of this problem is choosing when to stop, +since it requires one to estimate their certainty of their estimate. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-22-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-22-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..910afc3 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-22-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +# 2025-12-18 15:22:?? + +PDI has moved up the schedule to transition to Accubid Anywhere +and will be signing a contract with Trimble in late January. + +[Drawer AI | Automated Electrical Takeoff & Estimating](https://drawer.ai/) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-30-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-30-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b946ad9 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-18_15-30-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +# 2025-12-18 15:30:?? + +[Kip (unit) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kip_\(unit\)) +[Construction Cost Estimating](https://www.quantity-takeoff.com/index.htm) diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-00.md b/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4f1efcc --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,17 @@ +# 2025-12-19 10:44:?? + +#occupational/takeoff + +> [!quote] Art Baldwin 2025-12-19, in reference to Howard University East Towers (pp.) +> When using PVC slab box assemblies where substantial insulation +> (e.g mineral wool, spray foam) is to be applied, +> add extension rings to compensate for the thickness + +# 2025-12-19 10:44:?? + +#occupational/takeoff + +> [!quote] Art Baldwin 2025-12-19, in reference to Howard University East Towers (pp.) +> When using PVC slab box assemblies where substantial insulation +> (e.g mineral wool, spray foam) is to be applied, +> add extension rings to compensate for the thickness \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-01.md b/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-01.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b0fc24a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2025-12-19_10-44-01.md @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +# 2025-12-19 10:44:?? + +#occupational/takeoff + +This week (2025w51) +William Bonn, as part of [[units-takeoff]] for Howard University East Towers, +used an `Area` "Typical - Unit Balconies" for `Phase` "UNIT - RESIDENTIAL" takeoff. +Our senior Joel Jansen approved of the method. + +I'd like to use the method tentatively for takeoff strictly typical of all units +(e.g. master switches, MSDE's, etc.), +but there is potential for significant efficiency gains +in treating units like panelboards in [[switchgear-takeoff]]: +picking one unit type to be typical of many nearly identical types. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-02_10-10-18.md b/timestamped/2026-01-02_10-10-18.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..17f5c3c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-02_10-10-18.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# 2026-01-02 10:10:18 + +### Harborside Plaza 4 + +#### TODO + +* [ ] [[electrical-takeoff|Electrical]] +* [x] [[telecom-takeoff#Backbone Riser|Telecom Backbone]] +* [x] [[distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff|DAS]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-02_19-21-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-02_19-21-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b5dad43 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-02_19-21-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +# 2026-01-02 19:21:?? + +Without apparent prompt I was reminded of a practical joke +that my fellow apprentice Joe used to play often +that never failed to get a laugh out of me: + +Mid-conversation Joe would stop suddenly, +search in his pockets or tool belt, +pull out a random object (usually his lineman's pliers), +and act as if he had received a phone call on it. +Often the other party had apparently dialed in error, +and Joe would say, "Hello?... Hello?" +before deciding they'd hung up. +Other times he'd step away (only one step) +and have whole conversations. + +Try as I might have, +I could never pull it off like he could. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-06_07-47-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-06_07-47-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d3fd654 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-06_07-47-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +# 2026-01-06 07:47:?? + +### _Let Them Theory_ Theory + +1. Person habitually engages in toxic behavior + which they consciously believe to be benevolent + +2. Person recognizes that when they stop engaging in said toxic behavior, + others appreciate it + +3. Person feels that they are doing a service + by not engaging in said toxic behavior \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9b1f55c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +# 2026-01-06 10:00:?? + +Paraphrased Teams conversation with a peer +about [[distribution-designations#Terminations]]. +Peer's messages are in block quotes. + +*** + +> Good morning! +> Do you add branch terminations to panelboards? +> If so, how does your 'distribution' section looks? + +Morning! Yes to the first question, ? to the second + +> As all panelboards on a job don't have the same size/# of terminations, +> I assume you would have a plethora of same size boards in the job, with different terms. +> How do you list them? + +| | Designation | Status | Quantity | +| --- | ----------------------------- | ------ | -------- | +| 1 | Generator - 350kW, Diesel | | 1 | +| 2 | Generator - 2000kW, Diesel | | 1 | +| 3 | ATS - 200A | | 2 | +| 4 | ATS - 250A | | 1 | +| 5 | ATS - 400A | | 2 | +| 6 | ATS - 600A | | 2 | +| 7 | ATS - 800A | | 1 | +| 8 | ATS - 1000A | | 1 | +| 9 | Panelboard - 50A, 1-Section | | 1 | +| 10 | Panelboard - 100A, 1-Section | | 18 | +| 11 | Panelboard - 125A, 1-Section | | 26 | +| 12 | Panelboard - 150A, 1-Section | | 2 | +| 13 | Panelboard - 225A, 1-Section | | 11 | +| 14 | Panelboard - 225A, 2-Section | | 5 | +| 15 | Panelboard - 400A, 1-Section | | 2 | +| 16 | Panelboard - 400A, 2-Section | | 3 | +| 17 | Panelboard - 400A, 3-Section | | 5 | +| 18 | Panelboard - 600A, 2-Section | | 1 | +| 19 | Panelboard - 800A, 1-Section | | 1 | +| 20 | Panelboard - 1200A, 1-Section | | 2 | +| 21 | Panelboard - 1200A, 2-Section | | 1 | +| 22 | Panelboard - 3000A, 1-Section | | 1 | +| 23 | CT Cabinet | | | +| 24 | Power Monitor | | 82 | +| 25 | SPD/TVSS | | 2 | + +> Ah, so you just chuck in a lot # of terms per board and call it good? + +Essentially. +Ben's direction was to pick a schedule +on the upper end of terms for each size panel +to be representative of the rest. +At my old place I would have made a designation for each panel, +I'm not upset to leave that behind. +I see no reason you couldn't just make each size once +and keep it in a temp job. +I would, but I usually extract the schedules anyway +so I just use the actual average. + +> Thank you for that. +> Joel wagged his finger at me about missing terms this morning--- +> I wanted to see how it's preferred. +> I was told terms are captured by feeders/mech connections +> and have never added them to panelboards. +> +> That would be the best way, finding the actual average. + +The mech connection assemblies have the load side term, +the feeder assemblies have both sides, +the branch assemblies don't have either, +that's why he got you, I think. + +I don't think my way is best +unless you already have all the circuits in a big table for other reasons. +Lot of effort for a marginal increase in certainty above a heuristic like Ben's. + +I'm working on a job Noah started now, +he made certain panels separate from what I assume is the average +and labeled them with the name of the panel. +If I had a job where some were significantly more full than others +I _might_ do something similar, +but I'd probably name them +"... 1-Section, ~25% Fill"/"... 1-Section, ~75% Fill" instead. +But that's a lot of mental overhead. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-57-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-57-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d09168 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-06_10-57-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +# 2026-01-06 10:57:?? + +Tracking contractor growth by project square footage +rather than contract value dollars. +Account for market shifts and regional differences. + +Problematic for other than new residential construction. +Do you count site area? +Out of contract building area for renovations? + +Maybe the sum of in-contract building area and other areas prorated somehow. + +Seems imminently gameable. +See [[incentives#Perverse Incentive]] +and [[estimating-culture#Incentives]]. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_06-41-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_06-41-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..71e1c6c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_06-41-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +# 2026-01-07 06:41:?? + +> [!quote] _The Shadow of the Torturer_, Chapter 17: "The Challenge" +> No intellect is needed to see those figures who wait beyond the void of death--- +> every child is aware of them, blazing with glories dark or bright, +> wrapped in authority older than the universe. +> They are the stuff of our earliest dreams, as of our dying visions. +> Rightly we feel our lives guided by them, +> and rightly too we feel how little we matter to them, +> the builders of the unimaginable, +> the fighters of wars beyond the totality of existence. +> +> The difficulty lies in learning that we ourselves encompass forces equally great. +> We say, "I will," and "I will not," and imagine ourselves +> (though we obey the orders of some prosaic person every day) our own masters, +> when the truth is that our masters are sleeping. +> One wakes within us and we are ridden like beasts, +> though the rider is but some hitherto unguessed part of ourselves. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-03-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-03-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..50f5478 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-03-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +# 2026-01-07 10:03:?? + +At Ace, "residential" always meant single-family/duplex construction, +but I think now we were the outliers. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-05-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-05-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1e66ae0 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-05-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +# 2026-01-07 10:05:?? + +See [[pdi-breakdowns#Location]]. + +I have---for some time now--- +been trying to figure out the purpose of the non-system breakdowns. + +[[location-vs-scope]] + +Perhaps there is another dichotomy +in that an estimator may use the area classifications of the design +or according to their own understanding of each term. +For lack of a better example, +whether a "101 - KITCHEN", without provisions for cooking, +would be broken down under "Kitchen". \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-42-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-42-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c0852e8 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_10-42-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,40 @@ +# 2026-01-07 10:42:?? + +When I got to work today Art admonished a fellow estimator +for not uploading _all_ of a project's drawings, +even those they did not intend to take off, to Trimble Connect. +Art suggested that the estimator should upload all the drawings, +but only add them to LiveCount as needed. + +I take issue with the suggestion on principle +since doing so would not benefit the estimator or their senior +(if they aren't added, the estimator can do nothing with them), +but would require not-insignificant effort. +Effort that would ultimately benefit no one:--- + +Trimble Connect's ham-fisted approach to version control +means that the fewer times it must be used, the better. + +> I'm currently dealing with the headache of an estimate +> where such caution was not applied. + +The probability that any construction will be performed +according the drawings that we take off +(or even their immediate successors) +I suspect is slim to zero. +That Ops would have the patience to add the revisions, +fighting with Trimble Connect as they would be, +I suspect is even less. + +> On my current project, after trying in vain to play by Trimble's rules, +> I started by deleting all the drawings I could +> (those without takeoff associated with them) +> then reuploaded the revised set. +> I'm confident that this would be the dominant strategy. + +*** + +It's curious to me that the possibility of scope revisions +doesn't seem to be at the front of every estimator's mind +when doing takeoff or considering process changes, +like it was for my mentors and peers at Ace. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_12-13-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_12-13-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bc9f947 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_12-13-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +# 2026-01-07 12:13:?? + +#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization + +Just now Jorge admonished another peer +for using insulated wire for pool bonding, +his rational was flawed beyond saving +(something about the difference between bonding and grounding), +but stemmed from a frustratingly common misunderstanding +that our Accubid assemblies are intended to be an accurate list +of the material to be installed. + +They are not. +If they were intended to be accurate, +there would need to be several times as many. +They are a compromise between accuracy and estimator effort. +It should be assumed that for common scope, +at least one assembly should be acceptable as-is. + +Pool bonding is required for at least a quarter of our jobs. +We have no bonding assemblies with bare wire. +Therefore it must be assumed that it was determined +that it would be acceptable to represent bare wire bonding with insulated wire items, +because otherwise it would be necessary to have double the assemblies, +or to expect estimators to substitute each size of wire +everywhere bare was necessary. + +See [[realism-vs-instrumentalism]]. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-07_16-03-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-07_16-03-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cad28df --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-07_16-03-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +# 2026-01-07 16:03:?? + +#occupational #topic/estimating #topic/organization + +There is a palpable animosity for [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]] +in [[pdi-estimating#Construction Estimating (ConEst)|ConEst]], +stemming---I believe---from an lack of buy-in on Bid's part. +Their lack is easily explained by their [[estimating-culture#Incentives|incentive structure]]: +Since throughput is systematically prioritized over accuracy, +ConEst has a strictly antagonistic role +because it slows down the bid process. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-08_13-33-34.md b/timestamped/2026-01-08_13-33-34.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ead382a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-08_13-33-34.md @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +# 2026-01-08 13:33:34 + +### 2100 Crystal Drive Takeoff Review + +#### Generators + +> [!failure] +> Generators were erroneously broken down in switchgear. + +[[switchgear-takeoff#Generator|Generator]] + +#### Switchgear + +Switchgear cost comp +"\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\11 Bid Estimating Spreadsheets\Switchgear Pricing Tool Version 2 (2.02.2024) (Template) - Copy.xls" + +Includes +* submetering +* coordination study + +#### Composite Cleanup + +1 day per week + +$$ +\text{Average Weeks Per Month} = +$$ + +> It occurs to me I don't know all the rules of our calendar +> [Gregorian calendar - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregorian_calendar) + +#### Temp Power + +$10,000 per [[heavy-equipment#Swing Stage Scaffolding|swing stage]] + +[[temp-power-takeoff]] + +#### Unit Typicals + +I asked Joel about using unit typicals as described in +[[2025-12-19#2025-12-19 10:44]]. +He stated that would be acceptable. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-09_10-00-03.md b/timestamped/2026-01-09_10-00-03.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..396b7cf --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-09_10-00-03.md @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +# 2026-01-09 10:00:03 + +### 2100 Crystal Drive + +`#600 ? WHITE ?` had incorrect sort codes. + +#### Lighting Control + +I took off lighting per plans (E510) +in spite of proposal stating "local control". +Will have to be changed. + +#### Labor Factor + +Fire Alarm +Switchgear +Feeders +Subfeeds +Corridors +Amenity +Retail +Units + +#### Fixtures + +> [!failure] +> Several fixtures were erroneously based on NM cable. + +I built some fixtures with \#12/3 in areas with emergency lighting +to be an unswitched hot. +Joel is having me change them to \#12/2. + +#### Units + +> [!failure] +> One unit type typical was missing `Area` quantities. +> Another had no takeoff. + +#### Labor Plan + +$$ +\mathbb{E}\left[\frac{\text{Hours Per Unit}}{\text{Openings Per Unit}}\right] \approx .75~\text{Hours Per Opening} +$$ + +High Rise .110--.120 hr/sqft \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-09_12-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-09_12-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1af14ed --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-09_12-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +# 2026-01-09 12:00:?? + +$$ +\begin{gather*} +\frac{146097}{400} = 365.2425~\text{Days Per Year} \ +\frac{20871}{400} = 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year} \ +\frac{6957}{1600} = 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month} +\end{gather*} +$$ + +$$ +\frac{365.2425~\text{Days Per Year}}{7~\text{Days Per Week}} += 52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year} +$$ + +$$ +\frac{52.1775~\text{Weeks Per Year}}{12~\text{Months Per Year}} += 4.348125~\text{Weeks Per Month} +$$ \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-09_14-45-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-09_14-45-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8bee251 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-09_14-45-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +# 2026-01-09 14:45:?? + +[[bid-price-modeling]] + +Suppose a true cost model, +accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$. + +$C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter) +decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value. +$t>0$ is time until the final payment. + +> ![250](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png) +> +> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter) +> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter). \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-09_16-28-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-09_16-28-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..85b6789 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-09_16-28-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +# 2026-01-09 16:28:?? + +### Occam's razor + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * the principle of parsimony +> * the law of parsimony + +recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. +Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian. + +> _Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem_ +> ("Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity") + +> "Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred." + +> [!quote] [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models#4.2 The Role of Parameters]] +> The principle of parsimony states that the simplest model +> that adequately reflects reality should be used. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-11_09-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-11_09-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ed7f171 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-11_09-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +# 2026-01-11 09:00:?? + +[[2026-01-09#2026-01-09 14:45]] + +[[bid-price-modeling]] + +[[decrease-in-sigma]] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e9d9af8 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +# 2026-01-11 11:00:?? + +![[favorite-quotes#"It Takes an Engineer to Build a Bridge that Barely Stands"]] + +The value that estimators provide for a contractor +is in modeling project cost. +If the goal were simply to present a number the cost will not exceed, +than anyone could be an estimator. +If the goal were only to present a reasonably accurate figure, +with no other constraints, +then there are few who in the world who couldn't, +given infinite time for a single bid. +The _true_ value of an estimator, then, +is in their ability to model project cost _efficiently_, that is, +to achieve _acceptable_ accuracy and precision as quickly as possible,--- +much as the engineer's is in building a bridge that _meets_ the requirements +as cheaply as possible. + +Estimating "as accurately as possible" +is akin to building a bridge "as strong as possible"; +it sounds nice, but ignores the actual objective of _optimal cost-efficiency_. + +I think that most estimators believe this to be the case, +but, whatever they believe in mind, they believe in practice +that the goal is to model cost as accurately and precisely as possible, +_given the time allowed for bid_. +Estimates tend always to take exactly as many weeks as until the bid due date, +even those of significantly different turnaround but equal scope and complexity. +This behavior is objectionable, +since if an acceptable estimate _could_ be provided in two weeks, +it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2] + +[^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids. + +[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates + including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed + (each with confidence estimates), + uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]], + they may have reasonable basis to set sliding standards for estimate precision + to be specifically determined at consideration of the opportunity for bid + according to current climate (i.e. their transient risk appetite). + I believe my use of the absolute is still fair: + No contractor is doing that, so they lack a competent measure of risk tolerance + besides continuing to tolerate what they have historically. + +> [!important] +> Objectionable as it is, +> it is to be expected that estimators will use all time allowed them +> when the standards for _acceptability_ are inadequately defined. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-11-10.md b/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-11-10.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..996f4e4 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-11-10.md @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +# 2026-01-15 08:11:10 + +Follow-up to [[2026-01-12#2026-01-12 12:23|2026-01-12 12:23]] + +Left Apartment at 05:30, at terminal around 06:10. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-15-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-15-00.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b56bda2 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-15_08-15-00.md @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +# 2026-01-15 08:15:?? + +[[2025-11-13#2025-11-13 08:19]] +I spoke to a peer about this yesterday.