diff --git a/game-theory.md b/game-theory.md index 3283a2b..d4f66ec 100644 --- a/game-theory.md +++ b/game-theory.md @@ -42,6 +42,8 @@ determine optimal or most likely [[strategy]] ### Stag Hunt +> Main article: [[stag-hunt]] + | Hunter A \ Hunter B | Hunter B: Hunt Stag | Hunter B: Hunt Hare | |:------------------- |:--------------------:|:--------------------:| | **Hunter A: Hunt Stag** | Eat stag \ Eat stag | Go hungry \ Eat hare | diff --git a/home.md b/home.md index 96d8861..4da9e30 100644 --- a/home.md +++ b/home.md @@ -36,3 +36,8 @@ which links to pages on project setup and my [[takeoff-scripts|takeoff scripts]] If you're interested in better ways to take notes, see [[personal-knowledge-management]]. + +### Recipes + +My [[recipes]], most of which I've tested, +can be found in the backlinks of that note. diff --git a/merrow_2022_contract-strategies.md b/merrow_2022_contract-strategies.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4301401 --- /dev/null +++ b/merrow_2022_contract-strategies.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +--- +title: Contract Strategies for Major Projects +tags: [] +authors: + - Edward W. Merrow +year: 2022 +--- +# Contract Strategies for Major Projects diff --git a/red-beans-and-rice.md b/red-beans-and-rice.md index fd787ba..c9ed011 100644 --- a/red-beans-and-rice.md +++ b/red-beans-and-rice.md @@ -17,7 +17,6 @@ up: "[[recipes]]" * **4 cloves** garlic, minced * **6 cups** water * **1⁄4 cup** chopped parsley -* **1 Tbsp.** salt ### Spices @@ -27,6 +26,7 @@ up: "[[recipes]]" * **1⁄2 tsp.** garlic powder * **1⁄2 tsp.** onion powder * **1⁄4 tsp.** cayenne pepper +* **1 Tbsp.** salt * **1⁄4 tsp.** freshly cracked black pepper * **2** bay leaves @@ -36,8 +36,9 @@ up: "[[recipes]]" Add the **sausage** and cook until browned. Remove the sausage to a bowl and refrigerate. -2. Add the **onion**, **bell pepper**, **celery**, and **garlic** to the pot. - Sauté over medium heat until the onions are soft. +2. Add the **onion**, **bell pepper**, **celery**, and **garlic** + to the pot. + Sauté over medium heat until the onions are soft. 3. Add the **spices**. Stir and continue to sauté for another minute. diff --git a/stag-hunt.md b/stag-hunt.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..42bcf52 --- /dev/null +++ b/stag-hunt.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +--- +title: Stag Hunt +tags: [] +--- +# Stag Hunt + +In [[game-theory]], the **stag hunt** is a stereotypical game +which describes two actors, each with the same two options, +which they must commit to without knowledge of the other's decision +hunt stag or hunt hare. +If a hunter chooses to hunt hare, they will catch it. +A stag, however, can only be taken by the hunters in cooperation, +so if only one hunter chooses to hunt stag, +that one will catch nothing and go hungry. + +| Hunter A \ Hunter B | Hunter B: Hunt Stag | Hunter B: Hunt Hare | +|:----------------------- |:--------------------:|:--------------------:| +| **Hunter A: Hunt Stag** | Eat stag \ Eat stag | Go hungry \ Eat hare | +| **Hunter A: Hunt Hare** | Eat hare \ Go hungry | Eat hare \ Eat hare | + +Whether hunting stag or hare becomes the dominant strategy +depends on the relative payoff of each +and each actor's trust in the other to cooperate. + +The value in understanding this game +is understanding that "selfishness" +is largely not a inherent quality of individuals, +but a response to [[incentives]]. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md b/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md index e00c0b5..1a9b426 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md @@ -85,8 +85,7 @@ Would I be better of keeping my mouth shut about it? #### Incentives Bonuses based on awarded profit -incentivize problematic behavior -([[game-theory#Stag Hunt|hare-hunting]]). +incentivize problematic [[stag-hunt|hare-hunting]] behavior. Has such behavior been observed, or has chief strategy been organization-aligned in spite of the incentive to defect? diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-25_15-02-03.md b/timestamped/2026-05-25_15-02-03.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0d10c6e --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-25_15-02-03.md @@ -0,0 +1,98 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-25T15:02:03-0400 +title: 2026-05-25 15:02:03 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-25]]" +--- +# 2026-05-25 15:02:03 + +The perceived value of detailed takeoff is baffling +because its single advantage over reference class forecasting +(which offers innumerable advantages over detailed takeoff) +is in itemized pricing, +but this advantage is nullified +by the known phenomenon that the precise +selection of particular items and their quantities +can not be trusted to be exactly accurate +due to uncertainty of project conditions, +and by the observation that material pricing at the time of bid +is not representative of the cost of buyout. + +The inevitable retort is +"It's an *est*imate, not an *exact*imate," +or some other such reductive dismissal. +True enough, this method is _a_ way +of getting close to the true answer of project cost and schedule, +but it's not an intuitive one. + +For an organizational process to be economical +it must contribute value greater than its cost. +Reduction of loss (risk mitigation) is a form of value, +and is the vector by which detailed takeoff is expected to be economical: +a more confident estimate (a narrower high-confidence interval) +allows the organization to bid more aggressively (bid lower) +without increasing their assumed risk in project execution. +A lower bid increases the probability of award, +decreasing the risk that estimating resources will have been wasted. +We can assume that this is not the vector by which _[[conest|ConEst]]_ +is expected to generate value, +both because it does not appear to be effective in this regard[^1] +and because the ConEst estimate is not used as basis to decrease the bid.[^2] + +[^1]: See [[2026-05-22_11-57-18]]. + +[^2]: This may be missed opportunity. + My baseless (and perhaps naive) speculation + is that a "Hey, we took a closer look and got our price down a bit more" + may indicate to the customer a [[stag-hunt|stag hunting]] behavior + that is more valuable than the real decrease in expected profit. + +As an estimating method, +detailed takeoff is not more _precise_ +(its use does not significantly decrease our certainty), +but it is more _granular_. +An estimate based on detailed takeoff can be easily[^3] subdivided +for use in [[earned-value-management]], +but its most immediate use is in identifying variation +from the expected case. +In other words, +deciding when overruns can be blamed on mismanagement, +and when they are simply bad luck. + +[^3]: Depending on the takeoff software. + +The last case is where I'd bet the perceived value of ConEst is found.[^4] +I can't help but feel that this effort is misplaced. +If project management is like estimating, +I have no doubt that they could _all_ benefit from training. +Identifying who exactly needs it more, then, is pointless. +As well to identify which cases of great project success +can actually be attributed to exceptional management +and not simply [[the-failure-of-risk-management#Red Baron Effect|the Red Baron effect]]. + +[^4]: Crew loading and schedule are important points in estimating, + and EVM is a fine solution there, + but it would be straightforward to apply the same RCF principles + that we use for Bid estimates for these as well. + That we use detailed takeoff in lieu of such methods + suggests that it is believed necessary for other reasons. + +*** + +Working exclusively in multifamily for this time +has lead me to spend a lot of time thinking about the question +of how estimating resources are best allocated. +My understanding of the industry is that, +despite the apparent focus on cost, +executive focus is usually on maintaining a consistent volume of work. +Because as contractors we are thinly-capitalized,[^5] +failing to do so seems to represent a larger risk +than a low-margin contract. +Under these conditions, +estimating has very little to do with the project itself, +so we can make assumptions about it +that might not normally seem appropriate. +It is because of our narrow market +that we get to have these much more interesting discussions. + +[^5]: See [[merrow_2022_contract-strategies]].