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timestamped/2026-04-02_19-10-14.md

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+---
+id: 2026-04-02T19:10:14-04:00
+aliases: []
+title: 2026-04-02 19:10:14
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/periodic/timestamped
+dg-publish: true
+date-created: 2026-04-02T19:10:14-04:00
+daily: "[[2026-04-02]]"
+weekly: "[[2026-W14]]"
+monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
+quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
+yearly: "[[2026]]"
+---
+# 2026-04-02 19:10:14
+
+From a high-level, business proposition perspective
+[[construction-estimating]] is identical in function to stock trading,
+both typified by expert judgement under uncertainty
+...
+One significant difference despite their similarity
+is that only in stock trading is it well understood
+that individual loss is not only inevitable,
+_it is how the strategy works._
+If you're not losing sometimes
+you're not assuming enough risk
+and you're missing out on returns.
+
+Similar sentiments expressed in the context of construction contracting
+are not popular, and are frequently judged irresponsible.
+
+I believe the tendency to set standards for estimates
+beyond the optimal level of detail
+stems from a [cognitive bias of association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Association)
+or [relevance fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Relevance_fallacies)
+which leads otherwise rational estimators
+to the erroneous belief that because construction is physically tangible,
+risk control is more effective than in markets.
+This may be related to [[2026-04-02_20-41-59#Decomposition Fallacy]].