ZaneMeyers/zmVault
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Actions Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

vault backup: 2026-01-06 17:28:27

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
Zane Meyers
2026-01-06 17:28:27 -05:00
parent d198d51c53
commit 97dd06e296
14 changed files with 987 additions and 125 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
fooled-by-randomness.md
+29 -7
View File
@@ -13,6 +13,24 @@ tags:
This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].
## Review
This is a low-effort bestseller bait
on the order of the lucky fools it (rightly) criticizes.
The only difference is that Warren Buffet is a successful trader.
If you've read or are reading this book
and find yourself agreeing with any of its conclusions,
try _The Failure of Risk Management_ by Douglas W. Hubbard.
Hubbard dismantles Taleb's pessimism point by point,
and it's an excellent read besides.
One might be tempted to say
that the damage Taleb and this book have done
to risk management and adjacent fields is immeasurable,
but I'm confident a rigorous model could estimate the damage
to an acceptable level of certainty.
## Critiques
### Intellectual Insecurity
@@ -28,16 +46,20 @@ relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.
Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_,
but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument.
In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him
In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have _implored_ him
to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected
for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses.
I don't find this approach charming at all,
especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues.
especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues like Warren Buffet,
who could write that their success was foretold burning oracle bones
and the book would still be a bestseller.
_Fooled by Randomness_ fails to differentiate itself from such books,
except in that it was written by a mediocre trader.
Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
which is a more traditional work of statistical thought,
well researched, and with a thorough bibliography,
which is a more traditional work of statistical thought---
well researched, and with a thorough bibliography---
Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying.
When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance,
when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
@@ -91,7 +113,7 @@ much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical meth
### False Lucky Fools
Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools
with people with ideas he doesn't like.
and people with ideas he doesn't like.
> [[hubbard_2020_failure]]
> does a much better job of explaining "lucky fools"
@@ -101,7 +123,7 @@ with people with ideas he doesn't like.
Taleb uses the story of Nero Tulip,
an incredibly cautious investor,
and his success over his risk-loving rival John
and his success over his risk-loving rival "John"
to promote the idea that modern quantitative methods
(as John is presumed to represent)
are inherently flawed.
@@ -116,6 +138,6 @@ much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory.
If I mistake Taleb's intent,
and the story was only meant to convey
that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making
can lead a person to success,
_can_ lead a person to success,
then I'm not sure who he's arguing against.