From 9a094fea3e49e1f921e3254fb35b1b528f91cc62 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2025 17:58:54 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2025-12-13 17:58:54 --- 2025-12-13.md | 28 ++++++++++++++++++ individual-ability.md | 17 +++++++---- personal-values.md | 66 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ risk-management.md | 34 ++++++++++++++++++++++ risk.md | 18 ++++++++++++ uncertainty.md | 17 ++++++++--- utility.md | 11 ++++++++ 7 files changed, 182 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) create mode 100644 2025-12-13.md create mode 100644 personal-values.md create mode 100644 risk-management.md create mode 100644 utility.md diff --git a/2025-12-13.md b/2025-12-13.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9cb94d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/2025-12-13.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: "2025-12-13" +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/daily +--- +# 2025-12-13 + +## 2025-12-13 08:45 + +I am interested in [[actuarial-science]] and [[risk-management]] +for their ability to quantify what is generally viewed subjective, +and as frameworks for general decision-making. + +The idea that one could devote significant thought +into making a decision aligned with their [[personal-values]] +and fail to pick the best option to that end is intriguing to me, +more so that an accurate quantization of ones values +and that the appropriate framework could trivialize all such decisions. + +Personal decision-making is often described +like calculating the result of a formula with hundreds of terms by hand. +People mess it up for the reasons you would expect for such a problem, +but then today you wouldn't expect them to do it by hand. diff --git a/individual-ability.md b/individual-ability.md index 3175b29..597e927 100644 --- a/individual-ability.md +++ b/individual-ability.md @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ see [[professionalism]]. Individuals differ in **learning rate** and **capacity for familiarity**. Whether nature or nurture is to blame, there is little an adult can do to move those needles. -Making the most of the resources you have +Making the most of the resources one has requires developing effective coping mechanisms (like [[note-taking]]). @@ -34,7 +34,14 @@ There is a practical limit to the mind's "shelf space". It's not only a question of experience or exposure, familiarity requires maintenance. -As of 2025-11-05 the original content of [[this-notebook]] -would take almost two hours to read, -and though I try to make it otherwise, -it likely doesn't contain an eighth of my professional knowledge. +> [!example] +> As of 2025-11-05 the original content of [[this-notebook]] +> would take almost two hours to read, +> and though I try to make it otherwise, +> it likely doesn't contain an eighth of my professional knowledge. + +%% + +## TALK + +%% \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/personal-values.md b/personal-values.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..adb957e --- /dev/null +++ b/personal-values.md @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Personal Values +tags: [] +--- +# Personal Values + +Personal values are subjective preferences for behavior +that affect one's decisions in ways that an objective analysis could not predict. + +> [!example] +> People are more likely to return a wallet +> with more cash than less. + +Personal values are the difference between one's normative and descriptive [[utility]]. + +Maintaining strong personal values aids decision-making +by allowing one to trivialize problems +that may be overwhelmingly complex when analyzed objectively. + +For example: + +For an unbiased individual, +to calculate the utility of a second bowl of ice cream--- +to determine its relative benefit compared to its harm--- +requires a thorough understanding and accurate quantization of their +* recent and future physical activity +* fitness goals +* preference for ice cream relative to other desert options +* natural tendency to form unhealthy habits +among many others. + +For an individual who strongly values their health and physical fitness, +the knowledge that they would be acting in violation of those values +skews the calculation so far to the negative +that internal debate is unnecessary. + +Frequently, individuals are capable of effectively rationalizing their values +(it's not difficult to imagine that all variables considered, +the objective utility of the additional ice cream is negative for most people). +In this way they are behavioral [[heuristics]]: +subjective utility + +*** + +_Having_ a value, simply acknowledging that some behavior is good, +requires no effort, and has no perceivable effect on the person. +Everyone _has_ dozens of values. + +_Maintaining_ a value means acting according to it so often +that doing so is instinctive. + +*** + +Personal values, as commonly described, +tend towards benevolence (charity, family) +or at least individual good[^1] (health, physical fitness), +but like habits, people maintain bad values as often or more. + +[^1]: "good" is a **societal** value, + a common value that individuals are expected to maintain. + +Angry, wasteful, and unhygienic people +maintain bad values that cause them to act the way they do, +contrary to their own objective interest. diff --git a/risk-management.md b/risk-management.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5313b5c --- /dev/null +++ b/risk-management.md @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Risk Management +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/incomplete + - topic/risk + - type/encyclopedia +--- +# Risk Management + +%% + +## TALK + +This note is for business risk management methods, +even those not commonly labeled as such. + +Note that risk management and actuarial science +have significant overlap in their common definitions. +For the purposes of [[this-notebook]], +legitimate mathematical methods for quantifying risk +fall under [[actuarial-science]]. +Other (qualitative) methods +as well as [[strategy|decisions]] based on methods of either type +are appropriate for this note. + +%% + +**Risk management** is a professional discipline +that is concerned with mitigating negative consequences of uncertainty on a business +(i.e. managing [[risk]]). diff --git a/risk.md b/risk.md index d8cd2f9..d249f38 100644 --- a/risk.md +++ b/risk.md @@ -11,6 +11,24 @@ title: Risk --- # Risk +%% + +## TALK + +This note is for the concept of risk +as understood by laymen and mathematicians. + +## TODO + +1. Relocate profession specific content to [[risk-management]]. + +2. If [[#In Cost Estimation]]'s content needs to remain, + and it isn't suited for [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]], + another cross-topic [[risk-management-for-construction-estimation]] will be necessary. + I suspect that with some edits it will be most appropriate for [[actuarial-science]]. + +%% + Risk, in common parlance, is the chance that something "bad" will happen. As such, it is generally understood as a binary, win/loss relationship. diff --git a/uncertainty.md b/uncertainty.md index e883230..584bf79 100644 --- a/uncertainty.md +++ b/uncertainty.md @@ -11,6 +11,16 @@ title: Uncertainty --- # Uncertainty +%% + +## TALK + +## TODO + + + +%% + The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes. ## Information @@ -25,7 +35,7 @@ In statistical inference and [[strategy]], > is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay > for information prior to making a decision. -Suppose information $I$ is available to a decision maker +Suppose information $I$ is available to a decision maker. Consider these two scenarios: 1. the decision maker does not purchase the information @@ -45,9 +55,8 @@ V(I) &= P(D)|I - P(D) \\ \end{align*} $$ -> [!info] Expectation Notation -> When forecasting, the payout of decisions is unknown, -> thus +When forecasting, the payout of decisions is unknown, +thus $$ \mathbb{E}\left[V(I)\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[P(D)\right] - \mathbb{E}\left[P(D)|I\right] diff --git a/utility.md b/utility.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..edc18f1 --- /dev/null +++ b/utility.md @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Utility +tags: [] +--- +# Utility + +[Utility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility) +is a measure of a party's satisfaction +with a certain state of the world. \ No newline at end of file