vault backup: 2025-07-03 17:48:00

.obsidian/workspace.json

@@ -170,44 +170,54 @@
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+    "datasets/overrun-trends.tsv",
-    "2025-07-01.md",
+    "overrun-trends.tsv",
-    "risk-oriented-estimating.md",
+    "datasets",
-    "risk.md",
+    "New folder",
-    "construction-estimating-software.md",
+    "new-additions/takeoff/units.md",
-    "gut-feel.md",
+    "new-additions/_converted/Takeoff.md",
-    "uncertainty.md",
+    "new-additions/takeoff/lighting.md",
-    "traditional-estimating-methods.md",
+    "new-additions/takeoff/designations.md",
-    "this-notebook.md",
+    "new-additions/takeoff/breakdowns.md",
-    "supertopics.md",
+    "new-additions/automation/feeder-verification.md",
-    "strategy.md",
+    "new-additions/automation/award-analysis.md",
-    "software-based-estimating.md",
+    "new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md",
-    "separation-of-concerns.md",
+    "new-additions/_converted",
-    "risk-registers.md",
+    "new-additions/takeoff",
-    "expected-value-of-perfect-information.md",
+    "new-additions/README.md",
-    "estimating-ergonomics.md",
+    "new-additions/powershell-document-conversion-module.md",
-    "estimating-culture.md",
+    "new-additions/evpi-takeoff.md",
-    "purpose-of-estimating.md",
+    "new-additions/new-hire.md",
-    "estimating-philosophy.md",
+    "new-additions/automation",
-    "project-management-tm.md",
+    "new-additions",
-    "possible-automation.md",
+    "notebook/_converted/Takeoff.md",
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+    "notebook/takeoff/units.md",
-    "open-problems.md",
+    "notebook/takeoff/designations.md",
-    "me.md",
+    "notebook/takeoff/breakdowns.md",
-    "gold-plating.md",
+    "notebook/takeoff/lighting.md",
-    "estimating-misconceptions.md"
+    "notebook/automation/feeder-verification.md",
+    "notebook/automation/award-analysis.md",
+    "notebook/the-failure-of-risk-management.md",
+    "notebook/_converted",
+    "notebook/README.md",
+    "notebook/takeoff",
+    "notebook/new-hire.md",
+    "notebook/powershell-document-conversion-module.md",
+    "notebook/evpi-takeoff.md",
+    "notebook/automation",
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 }

new-additions/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+# notebook
+
+This is a temporary spot for my notes while I figure out my setup.
+
+## TODO
+
+1. move main vault "ZMVault" to Github
+2. branch and merge these notes with repo

new-additions/automation/award-analysis.md

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+# Award Analysis
+
+BPM > Reports > Awards
+The HUB > HUB Insights > WIGs, KPIs & milestones
+
+Inception to Date (ITD)
+
+$$
+"Overrun $" = "ITD Cost $" - "Baseline Cost $"
+
+"Overrun %" = "Overrun $" / "Baseline Cost $"
+
+"Overrun %" = "ITD Cost $" / "Baseline Cost $" - 1
+$$
+
+> [!observation]
+> Curiously, we've decreased expected uncertainty significantly,
+> but are consistently overbidding by ~13%.
+
+This observation is likely due to more recent projects still being in their infancy,
+where costs have not been totally realized.

new-additions/automation/feeder-verification.md

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+# Feeder Verification Automation
+
+> * Filter by Feeders system in Takeoff
+> * Highlight everything and copy into excel
+> * Erase the everything except the description, length, and count
+> * Make a note of any typicals
+> * Redo the same process but with USF, Primaries, and Secondaries 
+> * Save as and rename to NAME - Feeder Verification in the PSN folder
+
+Breakdown selection is straightforward.
+
+Still need a solution to select all takeoffs.
+Get top left corner of pane, offset down and right.

new-additions/evpi-takeoff.md

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+# EVPI Takeoff
+
+Expected value of perfect information (EVPI)
+
+The perceived *value* of decreased uncertainty
+must be weighed against its *cost*.
+
+Takeoff purchases certainty with estimator hours.
+Estimator hours have a not insubstantial real cost in salary and burden,
+however the opportunity cost may exceed this.
+
+Count-based takeoff speed increases with count.
+
+***
+
+Optimizing the takeoff process means:
+
+* *Minimizing* the need for information outside of drawings
+* *Maximizing* organizational consistency
+
+***
+
+Recent events have complicated my philosophy above.
+It appears that similar efforts have already been made here,
+their success being a matter of perspective.
+
+## Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description)
+
+Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience,
+but has the side effect that those acustomed to the names will inevitably treat them as descriptive.

new-additions/new-hire.md

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+# NEW HIRE - ESTIMATOR
+
+|                 |                                              |
+| --------------- | -------------------------------------------- |
+| **Department:** | Construction Estimating                      |
+| **Date:**       | 06/09/2025 (Onboarding) – 06/16/2025 at desk |
+| **Employee:**   | Zane Meyers                                  |
+
+## Expectations and Responsibilities
+
+### WBS and Unit Matrix
+
+* Develop the correct project setup in the WBS spreadsheet & Accubid
+  based on building type, construction method and market.
+
+* Create project WBS and Unit Matrix
+
+### Means and Methods
+
+* Determining means and methods from project documents
+
+* Fill out project OneNote checklist for assigned scopes
+
+### Accubid/LiveCount
+
+* Estimate assigned projects using knowledge
+  of PDI scopes, sort codes, NEC and regional requirements
+
+* Proper Accubid take-off
+
+### Note Taking
+
+* Improve accuracy/quality of estimates.
+
+* Taking notes during trainings,
+  correcting mistakes in take-off,
+  and documenting/referencing feedback for future projects
+
+### Prioritize
+
+* Maintain checkpoints with Sr. Estimator for priority items/projects
+
+* Check Smartsheets
+
+## Goals
+
+- Complete a full-take-off within first 6 months of start
+- Complete Accubid tabs within first year of start

new-additions/powershell-document-conversion-module.md

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+# PowerShell Document Conversion
+
+PowerShell module to allow fluent conversion of "document" files,
+including markup source (.md, .adoc, .rst, etc.)
+and binary formats (.pdf, .docx, etc.),
+as well as allow ~~common high-level actions on them.~~
+
+> [!note]
+> Cmdlets should be written to accept multiple input files where appropriate.
+
+## `Convert-Document`
+
+* pandoc
+* calibre `ebook-convert` (if necessary)
+* muPDF
+* AsciiDoctor
+
+## `Measure-Document`
+
+Measure total words, occurances of unique words, etc.
+Where applicable, the same by page, as well as total pages.
+
+## `Format-Document`
+
+Run format specific linter on document.
+
+## `Get-DocumentMetadata`/`Set-DocumentMetadata`
+
+> Reconcile document metadata formats
+
+## `Import-Document`
+
+Return PSCustomObject with appropriate properties. 
+
+***
+
+## `Import-XML`
+
+Missing from base pwsh but should be straightforward to implement.
+
+```pwsh
+function Import-XML {
+    param(
+        [string]$Path
+    )
+    $xmlText = Get-Content $Path
+    $document = [xml]$xmlText
+    return $document
+}
+```
+
+`*.SupplierLink.xml`
+
+## `Unblock-Excel`

new-additions/takeoff/breakdowns.md

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+# Breakdowns
+
+Managing breakdowns is the most time consuming part of takeoff.
+Assembly selection is comparatively quick compared to Anywhere.
+
+## Site
+
+Area: `2 - Site`
+Phase: `Site`
+
+## Garage
+
+### General
+
+Area: `XX - Level P1 Garage`
+Phase: `Garage`
+
+`XX - Level P1 Garage`
+`XX - Level P1 Building`
+
+### Stairwells
+
+Area: `S - Stairwells Garage`
+Phase: `Garage`
+
+## Building
+
+### General
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
+Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
+
+### Corridors
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
+Phase: `Building - Corridors`
+
+### Stairwells
+
+Area: `S - Stairwells Building`
+Phase: `Building - BOH, Storage & Common`
+
+### Rentable
+
+#### Residential
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
+Phase: `Unit Residential`
+
+#### Hotel
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Building`
+Phase: `Unit Key`
+
+### Interior Amenity
+
+#### General
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Amenity Building`
+Phase: `Interior Amenity`
+
+#### Kitchen
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Kitchen Building`
+Phase: `Kitchen`
+
+#### Retail
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Retail Building`
+Phase: `Retail`
+
+#### Ballroom
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Ballroom Building`
+Phase: `Ballrooms`
+
+### Exterior Amenity
+
+Area: `XX - Level XX Exterior Amenity Building`
+Phase: `Exterior Amenity (Courtyards, Pool Decks)`

new-additions/takeoff/designations.md

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+# Designations
+
+## Building Designations
+
+## Modifying Designations
+
+> [!tip]
+> It is generally easier to rebuild a designation than to modify it.
+> For designations with existing takeoffs, Right-Click > `Empty Designation`.
+> The build process can then be completed anew.

new-additions/takeoff/lighting.md

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+# Lighting Takeoff
+
+## Fixtures
+
+### Fixture Labor
+
+> | Fixture Type | Labor          |
+> | ------------ | -------------- |
+> | Paddle Fan   | 1.5 hrs/ea     |
+> | Pendant      | 1-4 hrs/ea[^1] |
+> | Strip/Cove   | 0.083 hrs/ft   |
+> | Site Poles   | 1.5 hrs/ea     |
+> | Festoon      | 2 hrs/ea       |
+> | All Others   | 1 hrs/ea       |
+>
+> [^1]: Determine exact labor from fixture and size.
+
+### Fixture Branch Length
+
+> | Case             | Standard Length |
+> | -------------    | --------------- |
+> | Site/Courtyard   | 50ft[^1]        |
+> | Garage           | 50ft            |
+> | BOH              | 40ft            |
+> | Corridors        | 40ft            |
+> | Interior Amenity | 40ft[^2]        |
+> | Office/Retail    | 50ft            |
+> | Exterior Amenity | 50ft            |
+> | Units            | 20ft            |
+>
+> [^1]: Locate the panel and come up with avg. length
+>
+> [^2]: See fixture types below for special cases.
+
+### Fixture Branch Wire size
+
+> | Case           | Wire Size |
+> | -------------- | --------- |
+> | Site/Courtyard | #10[^1]   |
+> | Garage         | #10       |
+> | NM Cable       | #14[^2]   |
+> | All Others     | #12       |
+> 
+> [^1]: Refer to panel schedules or Site Pole Detail for Site Pole wire size
+>
+> [^2]: Kitchen and bathroom fixtures shall be #12 (NOT #14) on wood frame (NM) projects.
+
+### Garage
+
+#### Fixtures
+
+Use ENT Assembly unless spec requires otherwise.
+
+`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`GARAGE FIXTURE  ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING`
+`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`GARAGE FIXTURE W/T ROD  ENT W/#10 - STEEL OCT RING`
+
+If PVC, use following assemblies:
+
+| Case    | Assembly Path                                                              |
+| ------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| Ceiling | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY`                      |
+| Wall    | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP` |
+
+#### Homeruns
+
+> `System` = "EL - Electrical"
+
+Use 1 Homerun for every 3 circuits in Garage
+
+Use assembly `Common Assemblies`/`Device Homeruns in Slab/Deck`
+
+### Surface Mount
+
+* Wall Mount (Sconce)
+* Pendant
+* Linear
+* Tape
+* Track
+
+| Wiring Method  | Assembly Path                                               |
+| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+| NM Cable       | `NM ASSEMBLIES`/`RND BOX BAR HNGR...`                       |
+| MC Cable       | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`SQ BOX, ROUND P RING & MNTG BRKT...`       |
+| PVC in Ceiling | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY`       |
+| PVC in Wall    | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`3/4" PVC W/ 3#12 - STL BOX/TILE RING` |
+| EMT            | `EMT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SQ BOX & ROUND P RING`              |
+
+> [!note]
+> Use lighting control cable assemblies in Amenity areas
+
+#### Tape Lighting
+
+Also called "cove" or "strip",
+however those terms are less specific
+and potentially confusing.
+
+Use item `FIXTURE LABOR 1/2HR`
+and change `Fct 1` to match the calculated labor.
+
+> [!note]
+> Tape lighting length is limited by the "max power length" of the model
+> (usually measured in millimeters).
+> Max power length is usually 5000 to 15000 mm (about 16 to 49 ft)
+> depending on luminous output and voltage.
+
+Separate these fixtures by labor, not length
+
+```
+A - Tape 0.5hr (1-6ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 1.0hr (7-12ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 1.5hr (13-18ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 2.0hr (19-24ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 2.5hr (25-30ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 3.0hr (31-36ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 3.5hr (37-42ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 4.0hr (43-48ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 4.5hr (49-54ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 5.0hr (55-60ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 5.5hr (61-66ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 6.0hr (67-72ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 6.5hr (73-78ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 7.0hr (79-84ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 7.5hr (85-90ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 8.0hr (91-96ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 8.5hr (97-102ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 9.0hr (103-108ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 9.5hr (109-114ft) - MC #12 40ft
+A - Tape 10.0hr (115-120ft) - MC #12 40ft
+```
+
+### Recessed
+
+* recessed downlight
+* recessed linear
+* wall grazer
+* troffer
+
+| Wiring Method | Assembly Path                  |
+| ------------- | ------------------------------ |
+| NM Cable      | `NM ASSEMBLIES`/`HI HAT - ...` |
+| MC Cable      | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`HI HAT - ...` |
+
+For crowded puck light areas:
+measure length between fixtures,
+round up to the nearest 5ft
+
+> [!note]
+> "HI HAT" refers to a recessed can fixture.
+
+### Undercabinet Fixtures
+
+| Wiring Method | Assembly Path                         |
+| ------------- | ------------------------------------- |
+| NM Cable      | `NM ASSEMBLIES`/`UNDER CABINET - ...` |
+| MC Cable      | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`UNDER CABINET - ...` |
+
+> [!note]
+> Takeoff 2 fixtures if jumping over oven
+
+Use 10ft #12/2 for MC & NM
+
+### Paddle Fans
+
+| Wiring Method | Assembly Path                                         |
+| ------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- |
+| NM Cable      | `NM ASSEMBLIES`/`RND BOX BAR HNGR...`                 |
+| MC Cable      | `MC ASSEMBLIES`/`FAN RATED OCT BOX W/ BAR HNGR - ...` |
+| PVC           | `PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY` |
+
+### Stairwells & Elevators
+
+`PVC/ENT ASSEMBLIES`/`... - SLAB BOX / 45 DEG STUBBY`
+
+### Facade
+
+> `Phase` = "Facade"
+
+Length and Labor will be more than a normal fixture in BOH/Amenity
+
+> | Fixture Type | Labor (hrs) |
+> | ------------ | ----------- |
+> | Non-Linear   | 2           |
+> | Linear       | See above   |
+
+> 1. `3/4" PVC W/ 3#10 - STL BOX & TILE RING / 45 DEG STUBBY/ ENT DROP`
+>   * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel
+
+### Porte Cochere (Drive up Area)
+
+Create its own breakout in WBS, and phase in Accubid
+
+This is not technically exposed or drop ceiling, but still use PVC
+
+### FAA Lighting
+
+> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 1HR`
+> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`Aircraft Warning, 3/4" Conduit GRC/PVC 2#10, 1#10G`
+
+## Controls
+
+Lorem ipsum
+
+## Site & Courtyard
+
+### Breakdowns
+
+> `System` = "FML - Site Fixtures Material & Labor"
+
+### Fixture Assemblies
+
+> | Fixture Type                         | Assembly Path                                                                    |
+> | ------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
+> | Step Light                           | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`STEP FIX,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`                 |
+> | Bollard                              | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`BOLLARD,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`[^1]              |
+> | Up-light                             | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`PERMA POST,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`               |
+> | In-grade up-light                    | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40, IMC Elbow, ...`                  |
+> | Fixtures built into cabanas/pergolas | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`ALUM BOX W/ FLEX FIX,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`     |
+> | Handrail light                       | `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`ALUM BOX W/ FLEX FIX,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`[^2] |
+>
+> [^1]: If we don't own concrete, delete Pre-cast bollard base from assembly
+>
+> [^2]: Per Corwin: Hand rail lights should have a rigid 90 stub up and some flex
+
+#### Festoon Lighting
+
+AKA "string" or "market" lights
+
+> 1. `FIXTURE LABOR`/`FIXTURE LABOR 2HR`
+> 2. `FESTOON & ROOF ASSEMBLIES`/`FESTOON CABLE HANGER & EYE BOLTS - LENGTH`
+>   * `Length per Unit` = Light string length
+> 3. `COURTYARDS & LANDSCAPE`/`ALUM BOX W/ FLEX FIX,  3/4" CONDUIT - PVC40 - ...`
+>   * `Length per Unit` = Distance to panel + 15ft

new-additions/takeoff/units.md

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+# Unit Takeoff
+
+> [!tip] Preparing for Unit Takeoff
+Units generally have very little variation.
+I
+
+## Hotel
+
+> [!info] Also Known As
+> * Guestrooms
+> * Keys
+
+## Residential
+
+> [!info] Also Known As
+> * Condos

new-additions/the-failure-of-risk-management.md

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+# *The Failure of Risk Management*
+
+The Failure of Risk Management
+(Why It's Broken and How to Fix It)
+by Douglas W. Hubbard
+
+## Key Takeaways
+
+Qualititative risk analysis
+(i.e. risk matricies, scoring charts)
+departs from legitimate statistical methodology
+and has no robust evidence to suggest its efficacy.
+There is good reason to believe that such methods
+are deleterious to their intended purpose
+in contradiction to the common response
+that they are "better than nothing".
+
+Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude)
+alone can not predict or inform risky decisions,
+except for risk-neutral parties.
+People and organizations are risk-averse
+~~TODO: see chapter 6~~ 
+
+## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations
+
+Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
+Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
+Actuarial Science
+Options Theory (OT)
+Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
+Probabalistic Risk Analysis (PRA)
+Value at Risk (VaR)
+Loss-Exceedance Curve (LEC)
+Risk Tolerance