diff --git a/1935_capek_pov-of-a-cat.md b/capek_1935_pov-of-a-cat.md similarity index 100% rename from 1935_capek_pov-of-a-cat.md rename to capek_1935_pov-of-a-cat.md diff --git a/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md b/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md index fb6a024..45b8d83 100644 --- a/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md +++ b/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md @@ -15,6 +15,13 @@ title: Consolidate Estimating Thoughts My notes on construction estimating are currently disparate, disjointed, and redundant +Remove estimating-specific content from irrelevant notes. + +Create and use cross-topic notes for complex thoughts: +* [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]] +* [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]] +* [[auction-theory-for-construction-estimating]] + ## Relevant Notes ![[estimating-thoughts.base]] diff --git a/favorite-quotes.md b/favorite-quotes.md index f802d52..9ad0141 100644 --- a/favorite-quotes.md +++ b/favorite-quotes.md @@ -66,6 +66,13 @@ it's usually to justify second definition [yak shaving](https://en.wiktionary.or I like the story because it's well known and easily interpreted as an [optimization problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimization_problem). +## About Learning + +> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#Why It's Hard To Know What Works]] +> The placebo effect might not be as persistent +> if it were easier to learn from our experience... +> But learning is not a given in any environment. + ## About Originality > [!quote] Brian Eno, _A Year With Swollen Appendices_, p. 67 diff --git a/fire-alarm-takeoff.md b/fire-alarm-takeoff.md index 49c6948..a389e62 100644 --- a/fire-alarm-takeoff.md +++ b/fire-alarm-takeoff.md @@ -17,6 +17,8 @@ title: Fire Alarm Takeoff > [!info] > See [[fire-alarm]] for information about fire alarm systems. +* `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm" + ## Assembly Selection Free Air < PVC in Slab < EMT diff --git a/fixture-designations.md b/fixture-designations.md index bbb9bbe..ffd598c 100644 --- a/fixture-designations.md +++ b/fixture-designations.md @@ -14,6 +14,8 @@ title: Fixture Designations This note details creation of fixture designations for use in [[fixtures-takeoff]]. +[[luminaire-types]] + ## Naming ### Format @@ -49,7 +51,7 @@ Use empty designations to separate phases. |:------------ | ----------:| | Paddle Fan | 1.5 hr/ea. | | Pendant | 1-4 hr/ea. | -| Strip/Cove | 0.5 hr/6ft | +| Tape | 0.5 hr/6ft | | Site Poles | 1.5 hr/ea. | | Festoon | 2.0 hr/ea. | | All Others | 1.0 hr/ea. | @@ -111,7 +113,10 @@ Use 1 homerun for every 3 circuits in Garage ## Surface Mount > [!info] Surface Mount Fixtures -> * Wall Mount (Sconce) +> * Wall Mount +> * Wall Pack +> * Sconce +> * Swing Arm > * Pendant > * Linear > * Tape diff --git a/fooled-by-randomness.md b/fooled-by-randomness.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..db4ad10 --- /dev/null +++ b/fooled-by-randomness.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: _Fooled by Randomness_ +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/complete + - topic/risk + - type/media-commentary +--- +# _Fooled by Randomness_ + +This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]. + +## Critiques + +### "Logic Without Statistics" + +FbR uses few citations, +relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating. + +Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_, +but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument. +In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him +to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected +for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses. + +I don't find this approach charming at all, +especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues. + +Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]], +which is a more traditional work of statistical thought, +well researched, and with a thorough bibliography, +Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying. +When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance, +when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments. +Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications +for what he already believed. + +### Qualitative Probability + +Taleb loses me in the introduction +when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively. + +[[hubbard_2020_failure]] gives a comprehensive history +of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**, + +Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**. diff --git a/individual-ability.md b/individual-ability.md index 597e927..8aab66e 100644 --- a/individual-ability.md +++ b/individual-ability.md @@ -44,4 +44,7 @@ familiarity requires maintenance. ## TALK +Expertise as heuristics and biases +[Daniel Kahneman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman) + %% \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand.md b/leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand.md index 5d5af07..d3e0602 100644 --- a/leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand.md +++ b/leslie-et-al_1968_gregg-notehand.md @@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ title: Gregg Notehand tags: - authorship/other - destiny/permanent + - exclude-from-word-count - status/incomplete - type/media/book authors: diff --git a/lilypond.md b/lilypond.md index 69534a7..080a51e 100644 --- a/lilypond.md +++ b/lilypond.md @@ -22,11 +22,11 @@ with syntax similar to [[latex]]. 2. Restart Obsidian -```lily + ```lily \score{ \relative c' {a} \layout {} } -``` + ``` [Beginner Manual](https://lilypond.org/doc/v2.23/Documentation/learning/index) diff --git a/luminaire-types.md b/luminaire-types.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d613b09 --- /dev/null +++ b/luminaire-types.md @@ -0,0 +1,72 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Luminaire Types +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/incomplete + - topic/construction/electrical + - type/encyclopedia +--- +# Luminaire Types + +## Ambiguous Terms + +* Linear +* Cove +* Strip + +## Wall Packs + +## Sconces + +## Swing Arm Fixtures + +## Pendant Mount + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * chandelier + +## Track Lighting + +## Tape Lighting + +Also called "cove" or "strip" lighting, +however those terms are less specific +and potentially confusing. + +## Recessed Downlight + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * can light +> * hi hat +> * puck light + +## Troffer + +## Wall Wash/Wall Grazer + +## Undercabinet Fixture + +## Paddle Fan + +## Handrail Fixture + +## Pole Light + +## Festoon Lighting + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * string lighting +> * market lighting +> * catenary lighting + +## Other Fixture Types + +* Step Light +* Bollard +* Up-light +* In-grade up-light +* Fixtures built into cabanas/pergolas +* FAA Lighting diff --git a/multi-family-dwellings.md b/multi-family-dwellings.md index ebc8e2a..f0404fa 100644 --- a/multi-family-dwellings.md +++ b/multi-family-dwellings.md @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ title: Multifamily Dwellings > * hearing impaired communication (HC or H.C.) > * mobility features (MF or M.F.) > * accessible (Acc.) -> * usually refers to mobility features. +> * usually refers to mobility features. ### Are Hotels Multifamily Dwellings? diff --git a/risk-management-for-construction-estimating.md b/risk-management-for-construction-estimating.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e69de29 diff --git a/risk-management.md b/risk-management.md index 5313b5c..a1f6703 100644 --- a/risk-management.md +++ b/risk-management.md @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ even those not commonly labeled as such. Note that risk management and actuarial science have significant overlap in their common definitions. For the purposes of [[this-notebook]], -legitimate mathematical methods for quantifying risk +legitimate mathematical methods for _quantifying_ risk fall under [[actuarial-science]]. Other (qualitative) methods as well as [[strategy|decisions]] based on methods of either type diff --git a/risk.md b/risk.md index d249f38..34a8e03 100644 --- a/risk.md +++ b/risk.md @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ as understood by laymen and mathematicians. 2. If [[#In Cost Estimation]]'s content needs to remain, and it isn't suited for [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]], - another cross-topic [[risk-management-for-construction-estimation]] will be necessary. + another cross-topic [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]] will be necessary. I suspect that with some edits it will be most appropriate for [[actuarial-science]]. %% diff --git a/taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness.md b/taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..839d09b --- /dev/null +++ b/taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" +tags: + - authorship/other + - destiny/permanent + - exclude-from-word-count + - topic/math/statistics + - topic/risk + - type/media/book +author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb +identifiers: + - isbn:0-8129-7521-9 + - oclc:60349198 +language: English +publisher: Random House +year: 2001 +--- +# Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets + +%% +This note, with the exception of comments like this one +(reserved for notes on transcription) +consists only of content from the text. +For commentary see the companion +[[fooled-by-randomness]]. +%% \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md index fcc6e43..92a9c34 100644 --- a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md +++ b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md @@ -62,6 +62,83 @@ are _deleterious_ to their intended purpose, in contradiction to the common refrain that they are "better than nothing". +### Qualitative Labels are Problematic + +> [!example] p. 170 (pp.) +> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability +> (e.g. "Likely" vs. "Very Likely"). + +> [!example] p. 182 (pp.) +> risk matrix type bucketing +> tends to inflate the significance of small risks. + + +### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~ + +Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for. + +%% TODO: %% + +Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics, +but do not apply them consistently in practice. + +> [!example] +> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts +> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases. + +> [!example] p. 198 +> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts. + +#### Estimator Calibration + +The book details the statistically observable tendency for people +to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs. +It describes the process of "calibration" +by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias +and make predictions far more accurately. + +See [[estimator-calibration]] for more. + +Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) +as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator, +equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts. + +### Luck Looks Like Skill + +> [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.) +> Hubbard describes a study which concluded that, +> given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures, +> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record +> _by luck alone_. + +He later refers to the popular tendency +to overvalue competence and undervalue luck +in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments +as the "Red Baron effect". + +This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**: +improbable events become likely with increased sampling. + +> How many success stories +> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament? + +### There's Always Enough Data + +> [!quote] Voltaire +> Perfect is the enemy of good. + +> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann +> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations. + +Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal +that any industry is so niche that +data sufficient for quantitative models +does not exist. + +> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy (p.236) +> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way, +> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other. + ### Utility as a Measure of Value Expected Value (Probability × Magnitude) @@ -116,82 +193,6 @@ $$ where $Pr$ is the probability of Payoff. -### Expert Opinion Must Be ~~Adjusted~~ - -Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for. - -%% TODO: %% - -Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics, -but do not apply them consistently in practice. - -> [!example] -> Chapter 7 describes a study where individual experts -> were shown to estimate risk differently for identical cases. - -> [!example] p. 198 -> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts. - -#### Estimator Calibration - -The book details the statistically observable tendency for people -to underestimate risk and to be overconfident in their beliefs. -It describes the process of "calibration" -by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias -and make predictions far more accurately. - -See [[estimator-calibration]] for more. - -Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) -as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator, -equal to the mean squared error of their forecasts. - -### Luck Looks Like Skill - -> [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.) -> Hubbard describes a study which concluded that, -> given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures, -> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record -> _by luck alone_. - -He later refers to the popular tendency -to overvalue competence and undervalue luck -in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments -as the "Red Baron effect". - -This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**: -improbable events become likely with increased sampling. - -> How many success stories -> are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament? - -### Qualitative Labels are Problematic - -> [!example] p. 170 (pp.) -> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability -> (e.g. "Likely" vs. "Very Likely"). - -> [!example] p. 182 (pp.) -> risk matrix type bucketing -> tends to inflate the significance of small risks. - -### There's Always Enough Data - -> [!quote] Voltaire -> Perfect is the enemy of good. - -> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann -> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations. - -Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal -that any industry is so niche that -data sufficient for quantitative models -does not exist. - -> [!quote] Fallacy of Close Analogy (p.236) -> ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way, -> nothing learned from one can be applied to the other. - ### Value of Information * Expected Value of Information (EVI) @@ -211,7 +212,7 @@ EOL translates well to continuous probabilities. > (collapsing distributions to a single point for "accounting purposes") > leading to the widespread underestimating of Earth's oil reserves. -The case closely mirrors construction estimating. +The case closely mirrors [[construction-estimating]]. ## Critiques @@ -265,7 +266,26 @@ throughout the book and just pages earlier. Hubbard makes a strong case against qualitative risk management, but I found his attempts to introduce alternatives wanting. -## _Loss Models_ +## In the Context of Other Works + +### _Fooled by Randomness_ + +[[hubbard_2020_failure]] is in many ways a response +to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]. + +I'm willing to give [[#_Exsupero Ursus_]] much more slack +after reading Taleb's introduction. +See [[fooled-by-randomness#Qualitative Probability]]. + +Unfortunately for Hubbard, FbR is about why math is dumb, +and so will always be more popular than tFoRM, +which is about why math is good, actually. + +In retrospect it's interesting that the one point the books share +is that [[#Luck Looks Like Skill]], +which is Taleb's basis for why quantitative methods are flawed. + +### _Loss Models_ [[hubbard_2020_failure]] is obviously inspired in some part by [[klugman-et-al_2019_loss-models]] and its prior editions, diff --git a/units-takeoff.md b/units-takeoff.md index 015adf6..16c7ffe 100644 --- a/units-takeoff.md +++ b/units-takeoff.md @@ -19,8 +19,6 @@ title: Unit Takeoff > [!info] > See [[multi-family-dwellings]]. -## Takeoff - > [!tip] Preparing for Unit Takeoff > Units generally have very little variation. > It is usually best to copy-paste takeoffs @@ -38,7 +36,7 @@ title: Unit Takeoff > and creating them new for each unit, > since the types required can vary greatly between units. -### Load Centers +## Load Centers | Rating | Assembly | | ------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | @@ -47,13 +45,17 @@ title: Unit Takeoff Include terminations per [[switchgear]]. -### Shade Control +## Fixtures -### VTAC Units +[[fixtures-takeoff]] + +## Shade Control + +## VTAC Units Used in lieu of individual split systems. -### Dedicated Circuit Receptacles +## Dedicated Circuit Receptacles > [!quote] Joel Jansen 2025-11-11, pp. > @@ -68,7 +70,7 @@ Used in lieu of individual split systems. > match the receptacle configuration shown on the plans > (i.e. simplex to simplex, duplex to duplex). -### Air Sealing +## Air Sealing * LEED Silver * Mid-Atlantic jobs @@ -78,7 +80,7 @@ Used in lieu of individual split systems. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT MISC ITEMS - MC - ADJUST ACCORDINGLY` -### Islands +## Islands Use 1 "SLAB / DECK" receptacle for every 2 circuits in the island. @@ -86,36 +88,37 @@ Use 1 "SLAB / DECK" receptacle for every 2 circuits in the island. Use standard MC assemblies for remaining devices. -### Bidet Toilets, Whirlpool Baths, etc. +## Bidet Toilets, Whirlpool Baths, etc. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`MECHANICAL CONNECTIONS (UP TO 100A)`/`PVC - LT NM FLEX (CARFLEX)`/`20A 1PH MECH CONN (100') 3/4" PVC 3#12 - CARFLEX` -### "High-Lows" +## "High-Lows" Empty in-wall pass through from credenza location to behind television location. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`UNIT DATA - TELECOM`/`HIGH-LOW - TV SCOOP 1 1/2" ENT - NO CABLE` -Eaton 35M2W +> ![Eaton 35M2W|250x250](https://www.eaton.com/mdmfiles/PDM19433863/35M2W_C/500x500_72dpi) +> Eaton 35M2W -### Telecom Homeruns +## Telecom Homeruns -#### Residential +### Residential Included in MSDE. - -#### Key +### Key `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`TELECOM SYSTEMS`/`BOH AMENITY ASSEMBLIES`/... Adjust cable length as needed. -### Fire Alarm Devices +## Fire Alarm Devices -#### Residential +### Residential -##### Smoke Detectors & CO Detectors +* `System` = "EL - Electrical" +#### Smoke Detectors & CO Detectors For smoke detectors and CO detectors where 120V (most common): @@ -125,8 +128,14 @@ For ADA units: `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`UNITS - MC CABLE ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERAL ASSEMBLIES - METAL STUD`/`UNIT SMOKE DETECTOR / VISUAL SIGNAL ...` -##### Additional Signaling Devices +#### Additional Signaling Devices `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`UNIT HORN/STROBE - ...` -#### Key \ No newline at end of file +### Key + +* `System` = "FA - Fire Alarm" + +`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`... DEVICES WITH WIRE - FREE AIR` + +[[fire-alarm-takeoff]]