vault backup: 2025-12-18 17:14:55

.obsidian/bookmarks.json

@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@
       "type": "file",
       "ctime": 1761313177282,
       "path": "nfpa-70_national-electric-code.md"
+    },
+    {
+      "type": "file",
+      "ctime": 1766074735360,
+      "path": "consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md"
     }
   ]
 }

2025-12-18.md

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: "2025-12-18"
+tags:
+  - authorship/original
+  - destiny/permanent
+  - status/draft
+  - type/daily
+---
+# 2025-12-18
+
+## 2025-12-18 08:32
+
+[[uncertainty-in-construction-estimating]]
+
+## 2025-12-18 10:38
+
+#topic/meta
+
+I definitively think my new approach
+of putting nascent ideas in daily notes
+rather than separate fleeting notes
+is superior.
+
+The unfortunate reality is I'll never look at most of them again,
+so better that they don't crowd out my main notes.
+
+## 2025-12-18 14:18
+
+What interests me most in [[construction-estimating]]
+is an idea you might call "estimating golf":
+the goal is to produce a satisfactory[^1] estimate,
+the estimator can not view the project documents
+and must ask questions about the job
+(answerable in a sentence or less)
+of a neutral party ("the reader").
+The estimator fails if the estimate is unsatisfactory[^1],
+but otherwise is scored by number of questions asked.
+
+[^1]: satisfactory in terms of accuracy and precision,
+    according to the standards of the organization.
+    a control estimate must be prepared accordingly
+    by a neutral party ("the control").
+
+You could further imagine different brackets
+for required accuracy and precision,
+whether organization historicals are freely available
+or must be questioned like project details.
+
+The most interesting part of this problem is choosing when to stop,
+since it requires one to estimate their certainty of their estimate.
+
+## 2025-12-18 15:22
+
+PDI has moved up the schedule to transition to Accubid Anywhere
+and will be signing a contract with Trimble in late January.
+
+[Drawer AI | Automated Electrical Takeoff & Estimating](https://drawer.ai/)
+
+## 2025-12-18 15:30
+
+[Kip (unit) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kip_\(unit\))
+[Construction Cost Estimating](https://www.quantity-takeoff.com/index.htm)

actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating.md

@@ -22,3 +22,5 @@ In this way, projects are better compared to _insurance accounts_.
 
 * cost of individual service is uncertain
 * cost to customer must be minimized
+
+![[decrease-in-sigma#^pdf]]

actuarial-science.md

@@ -13,6 +13,10 @@ tags:
 
 [actuarial science](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science)
 
+Divorced from its traditional context of insurance,
+actuarial science is determining the optimal price of a service
+given [[uncertainty|uncertain]] cost.
+
 ## Terms
 
 * [discounted cash flow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discounted_cash_flow)

bid-price-modeling.md

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ $$
 \Phi : \mathcal{P}([0,\infty)) \to [0,\infty),
 $$
 
-mapping a cost distribution $\mu_C$ to a scalar.
+mapping a cost distribution $\mu_C$ to a **scalar** (a single value).
 
 Examples of such functionals include:
 

carbon-monoxide-detection-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/standalone-systems
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Carbon Monoxide Detection Takeoff

consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md

@@ -30,11 +30,11 @@ Remove estimating-specific content from irrelevant notes.
 
 Create and use cross-topic notes for complex thoughts:
 
+* [[uncertainty-in-construction-estimating]]
+
 * [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]]
-    * [[risk-oriented-estimating]]
 
 * [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]]
-    * [[risk-oriented-estimating]]: resource allocation
 
 * [[auction-theory-for-construction-estimating]]
     * [[bid-process-strategy]]
@@ -58,7 +58,6 @@ Create and use cross-topic notes for complex thoughts:
 * [[statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating]]
 
 * [[transparency-in-construction-estimating]]
-    * [[estimating-ethics]]
 
 ### Orphaned Notes
 

decrease-in-sigma.md

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+# Decrease in Sigma
+
+```tikz
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\pgfplotsset{compat=1.16}
+
+\begin{document}
+\begin{tikzpicture}
+    \begin{axis}[
+      width=13cm,
+      height=7cm,
+      axis lines=middle,
+      xlabel={$x$},
+      ylabel={$\varphi(x;\mu,\sigma)$},
+      xmin=-6, xmax=6,
+      ymin=0, ymax=0.85,
+      samples=400,
+      domain=-6:6,
+      legend style={draw=none, fill=none, at={(0.98,0.98)}, anchor=north east},
+      legend cell align=left,
+      ytick=\empty,
+    ]
+    
+    % Normal PDF: (1/(sigma*sqrt(2*pi))) * exp(-(x-mu)^2/(2*sigma^2))
+    
+    \addplot[thick]
+      { (1/(1.8*sqrt(2*pi))) * exp(-((x-0.8)^2)/(2*1.8^2)) };
+    \addlegendentry{$\mu=0,\ \sigma=1.8$}
+    
+    \addplot[thick, dashed]
+      { (1/(0.8*sqrt(2*pi))) * exp(-((x-0.8)^2)/(2*0.8^2)) };
+    \addlegendentry{$\mu=0,\ \sigma=0.8$}
+    
+    \end{axis}
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\end{document}
+```
+
+^pdf
+
+```tikz
+\usepackage{pgfplots}
+\pgfplotsset{compat=1.16}
+
+\pgfmathdeclarefunction{erfapprox}{1}{%
+  \pgfmathparse{%
+    % save sign and work with |x|
+    ( (#1<0) ? -1 : 1 )
+    * ( 1 - (1 + 0.278393*abs(#1) + 0.230389*abs(#1)^2 + 0.000972*abs(#1)^3 + 0.078108*abs(#1)^4)^(-4) )
+  }%
+}
+
+% Normal CDF using erf approximation:
+% F(x;mu,sigma) = 0.5*(1 + erf((x-mu)/(sigma*sqrt(2))))
+\pgfmathdeclarefunction{normcdf}{3}{%
+  \pgfmathparse{ 0.5*(1 + erfapprox((#1-#2)/(#3*sqrt(2)))) }%
+}
+
+\begin{document}
+\begin{tikzpicture}
+    \begin{axis}[
+      width=13cm,
+      height=7cm,
+      axis lines=middle,
+      xlabel={$x$},
+      ylabel={$F(x;\mu,\sigma)$},
+      xmin=-6, xmax=6,
+      ymin=0, ymax=1.05,
+      samples=400,
+      domain=-6:6,
+      legend style={draw=none, fill=none, at={(0.02,0.98)}, anchor=north west},
+      legend cell align=left,
+      ytick={0,0.5,1},
+    ]
+    
+    % Normal CDF: 0.5*(1 + erf((x-mu)/(sigma*sqrt(2))))
+    \addplot[thick]
+      { normcdf(x,0,1.8) };
+    \addlegendentry{$\mu=0,\ \sigma=1.8$}
+    
+    \addplot[thick, dashed]
+      { normcdf(x,0.8) };
+    \addlegendentry{$\mu=0,\ \sigma=0.8$}
+    
+    \end{axis}
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\end{document}
+```

distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ aliases:
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/standalone-systems
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
@@ -22,17 +22,19 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
 > [!info] Cellular Systems
 > Less common than ERRCS are "cellular DAS" systems
 
+`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/...
+
 ## Backbone
 
 ### FACR to Every Elevator Shaft
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
+1. .../`FACR TO ELEV PIT = ...`
     * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
     * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
 
 ### FACR to Every Staircase
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
+1. .../`FACR TO STAIRWELL = ...`
     * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
     * **Count** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Count_
 
@@ -40,22 +42,22 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
 
 1. * `Area` = "Typical - Stairwells Building Even Levels"
 
-    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
+    .../`STAIRWELL RISER EVERY 2 FLRS = ...`
     * **Count** = Each stairwell
 
 ### FACR to Electric Room
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
+1. .../`FACR TO 2HR-RATED RM = ...`
-    * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm takeoff Length_
+    * **Length** = _Match Fire Alarm Terminal Cabinet takeoff Length_
 
 ### Electric Room Riser to Every Floor
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
+1. .../`2HR-RATED RM RISER TO EVERY FLR = ...`
     * **Count** = Each Electric Room
 
 ### Top 2H Rated Room To Roof
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
+1. .../`TOP 2HR RATED RM TO ROOF = ...`
     * **Length** = Top level ceiling height to structure (minimum 15ft)
 
 ## Horizontal
@@ -64,5 +66,5 @@ title: Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) Takeoff
 > Usually only for cellular DAS.
 > Confirm takeoff requirement with [[pdi-estimating#Bid Estimating|Bid]].
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`DAS ASSEMBLIES`/`CORRIDORS ...`
+1. .../`CORRIDORS ...`
     * **Length** = Length measured for every corridor/garage

electrical-takeoff.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ title: Electrical Takeoff
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/electrical
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 ---

emergency-systems-research.md

@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@ title: Emergency Systems Research
 > * [[two-way-takeoff]]
 > * [[distributed-antenna-systems-takeoff]]
 
+[[wiring-method-selection]]
+
 1. Find Fire Alarm plans (if present)
 2. Locate the following rooms:
     * Fire Command Center (FCC)

feeders-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/feeders
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Feeders Takeoff

fire-alarm-takeoff.md

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
+title: Fire Alarm Takeoff
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/fire-alarm
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
-title: Fire Alarm Takeoff
 ---
 # Fire Alarm Takeoff
 
@@ -28,46 +28,58 @@ _Mid Rise, High Density (Wood frame):_ Free air, conduit only where required.
 
 ## Backbone
 
-Put all backbone takeoff in the `Area` of the Fire Command Center.
 Include [[sleeving-takeoff]] as necessary.
 
+`COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/...
+
 ### Fire Command Center
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
+1. * `Area` = As shown.
+    * `Phase` = As shown.
+
+    .../`HEAD END EQUIP`/`... HEAD END`
 
 ### Generator Room
 
-1. `Area` = Same as FACR
+1. * `Area` = Same as FACR.
+    * `Phase` = Same as FACR.
 
-    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
+    .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`GENERATOR ROOM ...`
 
 ### Fire Pump Room
 
-1. `Area` = Same as FACR
+1. * `Area` = Same as FACR.
+    * `Phase` = Same as FACR.
 
-    `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
+    .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE PUMP ROOM ...`
 
 ### Elevator Control Rooms
 
 > Also "Elevator Machine Room"
 
+* `Area` = Same as FACR.
+* `Phase` = Same as FACR.
+
 For each Elevator Control Room (ECR):
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
+1. .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV CONTROL ROOM ...`
     * **Count** = 1
 
-2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
+2. .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV CONTROL RM ...`
     * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and ECR.
         * Input adder length to reach the level of the ECR (Minimum 15ft).
 
 ### Elevator Shafts
 
+* `Area` = Same as FACR.
+* `Phase` = Same as FACR.
+
 For each elevator shaft:
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
+1. .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`ELEV SHAFT ...`
     * **Count** = 1
 
-2. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
+2. .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO ELEV SHAFT ...`
     * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and elevator shaft.
         * Input adder length to reach the level of the shaft (Minimum 15ft).
 
@@ -91,7 +103,10 @@ For each elevator shaft:
 
 For each stairwell:
 
-1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
+1. * `Area` = Same as FACR.
+    * `Phase` = Same as FACR.
+
+    .../`GEN, ELEV, FIRE PUMP & FA ROOM ASSEMBLIES`/`FACR TO STAIRWELLS 1" CONDUIT ...`
     * **Length** = Length measured from the most distant points of the FACR and stairwell.
         * Input adder length to reach the level of the stairwell (Minimum 15ft).
 
@@ -104,7 +119,7 @@ For each stairwell:
 
 1. Horizontal:
 
-    * `Area` = Same as FACR
+    * `Area` = Same as FACR.
 
     `... HORIZONTAL RUN`
     * **Length** = Length measured from FACR to all electrical rooms
@@ -141,32 +156,23 @@ For each stairwell:
 ### Smoke Detectors
 
 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`SMOKE DETECTOR W/ BASE - ...`
-
+    * **Count:** As shown, otherwise (1) every stairwell at every level.
-_Design Build:_
-Count every stairwell at every level.
 
 ### Pull Stations
 
 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`PULL STATION - ...`
-
+    * **Count:** As shown, otherwise (1) every stairwell at every level and every exterior exit.
-_Design Build:_
-Count every stairwell at every level
-and every exterior exit.
 
 ### Flow/Tamper Switches
 
-No free-air. If wood frame, take off as EMT.
+1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INITIATING DEVICES ...`/`ADDRESSABLE DUAL MONITOR MODULE - FLOW/TAMPER - ...` (No free-air)
-
+    * **Count:** As shown, otherwise (1) every stairwell at every level.
-_Design Build:_
-Count every stairwell at every level.
 
 ### Magnetic Door Holders
 
 1. `COMMON ASSEMBLIES`/`FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`INDICATING DEVICES WITH WIRE - ...`/`MAGNETIC DOOR HOLDER - ...`
-
+    * **Count:** As shown, otherwise (2) every set of double doors.
-_Design Build:_
+        (Typical of elevator lobbies and corridors)
-Count 2 for every set of double doors.
-(Typical of elevator lobbies and corridors)
 
 ### Horns, Speakers, and Strobes
 
@@ -177,8 +183,8 @@ _Design Build (method 1):_
     * measure with circles on Bluebeam
     * or divide relevant SF area by 4415
         * $\pi(\frac{75}{2})^2 \approx 4415$
-* every elevator lobby,
+* every elevator lobby, and
-* and every BOH room on the first floor and garage levels.
+* every BOH room on the first floor and garage levels.
 
 _Design Build (alternative method):_
 * 15ft from end of corridor,

fire-resistive-wiring-methods-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/electrical
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Fire Resistive Wiring Methods Takeoff

fixture-designations.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/fixtures
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Fixture Designations

fixtures-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/fixtures
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Fixtures Takeoff

grounding-takeoff.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ title: Grounding Takeoff
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/feeders
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 ---

lighting-controls-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/electrical
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Lighting Controls Takeoff

lightning-protection-takeoff.md

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/lightning-protection
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
   - authorship/original

low-voltage-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/low-voltage
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Low Voltage Takeoff

me-isms.md

@@ -12,3 +12,4 @@ tags:
 # Me-isms
 
 * (when misunderstood) "No, no, no."
+* certainly

risk-management-for-construction-estimating.md

@@ -15,84 +15,15 @@ tags:
 
 Cross-topic of [[risk-management]] and [[construction-estimating]].
 
-## Prioritizing Tasks
+## Estimating as Risk Mitigation
-
-ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
-
-### Estimating as Risk Mitigation
 
 * reduce risk of wasted estimation effort due to bid loss
   (prefer lower bid)
 * reduce risk of project overrun
   (prefer higher bid)
 
-Estimating resources are allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
+Estimating resources should be allocated
+according to Return on Mitigation (RoM),
+that is, their contribution to _cost certainty_.
 
-### Determining Necessary Detail
+$\text{Efficiency} = -1 \times \frac{d\sigma}{dt}$
-
-ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
-given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
-
-#### EVI Takeoff
-
-Expected value of information (EVI)
-
-#### Takeoff Optimization
-
-For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary,
-optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff,
-and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff.
-
-See [[optimal-estimating-patterns]] for more.
-
-# Estimating Detail
-
-The acceptable level of detail of an estimate
-in [[construction-estimating]] is a contentious subject.
-What's worse, estimators often disagree
-on what makes an estimate more detailed than another.
-
-The commonly repeated answer is this:
-
-> As detailed as possible,
-> given required turnaround and available estimating resources.
-
-This analysis is flawed
-because it implies more time always ought to be preferred,
-when the reality is that when considering larger organizational factors,
-ideal estimate certainty is likely far lower than most expect.
-
-The correct answer involves optimizing for these factors:
-* value of increased bid certainty
-* value of increased estimate volume
-
-An estimate's detail is irrelevant to its quality.
-A less detailed estimate is a more [[risk|risky]] bid,
-but it is not the role of the estimator to determine acceptable risk.
-
-## Experiment
-
-Perform a system takeoff (lighting for example) in exacting detail,
-the maximum amount you would ever consider using,
-and measure the time required to do so,
-as well as the cost of the scope.
-
-Have another estimator takeoff the same scope
-using the proposed time saving strategy.
-
-Repeat the test on additional projects.
-
-Treat the detailed takeoff as the true value
-and find the error of the time saving strategy.
-
-$\frac{d\sigma}{dt}$
-
-### Expectation
-
-Time-saving strategies will overestimate or underestimate detailed takeoff
-depending on the assumptions used in their creation.
-
-## Human Error
-
-It is commonly understood that a "detailed takeoff"
-is more "accurate" than a square foot estimate.

risk-oriented-estimating.md

@@ -1,120 +0,0 @@
----
-id: risk-oriented-estimating
-aliases: []
-tags:
-  - destiny/fleeting
-  - status/incomplete
-  - topic/estimating
-  - topic/risk
-  - type/supertopic
-  - authorship/original
-title: Risk Oriented Estimating
----
-# Risk Oriented Estimating
-
-## Abstract
-
-Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE),
-is a [[estimating-methodologies|methodology]]
-for [[construction-estimating]] which:
-* prioritizes estimating tasks,
-* determines necessary [[estimating-detail]]
-
-ROE leans heavily on [[uncertainty#Value of Information]],
-which challenges the natural tendency to fear even the smallest risk
-with the reality of the **cost of certainty**.
-
-ROE does not endorse common shortcuts that round up to "cover" uncertainty,
-as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
-increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
-
-%%
-
-## TALK
-
-This note currently gets too far into the weeds
-of critiquing common practice.
-
-%%
-
-## Potential Objections
-
-Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded.
-A framework to do so competently and consistently
-does not currently exist.
-Nor does the software necessary to utilize such a framework efficiently.
-
-The goal in and of itself ought not be controversial, however.
-Businesses regularly make far riskier decisions based on projections
-informed by the same data.
-
-By definition, if one could adjust historical pricing accurately for all dependent factors,
-the adjusted price would be accurate to the new job.
-
-The issue is that there are hundreds to thousands of potential dependent factors.
-A nonstarter for uncreative minds,
-but a worthwhile challenge for estimators truly passionate about their field.
-
-It is unique of construction estimating among similar fields
-that analysis and discussion of risk is largely absent from pre-approval review.
-The tools common of our trade almost always lack the means
-to quantify the dollar amount implications of our assumptions.
-
-There is an enormous gap in complexity between pure square foot pricing and
-[[traditional-estimating-methods]] that tools do not exist to bridge.
-
-At all points in the estimating process,
-It should be possible to give a confident budget.
-
-## In Comparison
-
-For most contractors, there is not usually a minimum amount of project detail
-required to provide a budget for a project
-Estimators know what the most likely and most expensive options are for a given scope
-and can fill in the detail required for item-oriented takeoff.
-This is called an **assumption** and is the basis of cost estimation.
-
-Assumptions are fundamentally incompatible with item-oriented estimating
-as it is commonly implemented.
-It is not possible to compare price possibilities
-except by creating separate takeoffs and breakdowns for each one.
-
-Rather than building the job one `WOOD NAIL - GALV STEEL - #10 - 5-INCH` at a time,
-risk-oriented estimating focuses on reducing risk of a decent budget.
-
-Risk-oriented estimating understands a `NAIL` like an estimator:
-an abstract item in a certain price range requiring labor in a certain hour range.
-
-A practitioner of this style would find
-that the impact of such details on the final price of a job
-are so low as to be trivial.
-Not to say that they shouldn't be addressed,
-only that they ought not be addressed before more significant factors.
-
-Risk is a measure of the effect of uncertainty on outcome.
-Uncertainty being a necessity of estimating,
-the language and tools that we use
-must facilitate discussions of risk management.
-In estimation in fields other than construction
-it is common to give an estimate as a _confidence interval_,
-a range in which a result has a certain percentage chance to fall.
-This interval can be determined from a population of possible prices.
-
-The _accuracy_ of a risk-oriented estimate remains roughly the same
-(approaching 100% with continuous input)
-through the takeoff process, and---assuming no incorrect input---
-is entirely out of the hands of the estimator doing the "takeoff".
-Other notes describe how a centralized system
-separates the concerns of adjustment factors
-and data input for individual projects.
-
-The "takeoff" workflow then is not about progressively approaching the target
-price as with item-oriented methods,
-but reducing the range of possible target prices,
-reducing the risk of the estimate.
-
-Abandoning an item-oriented estimate
-at any point before 100% completion
-results in effectively 100% wasted effort.
-In contrast, an abandoned risk-oriented estimate
-becomes a budget with no additional effort.

standalone-systems-takeoff.md

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/standalone-systems
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
   - authorship/original

statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md

@@ -15,6 +15,22 @@ tags:
 
 Cross-topic of [[statistical-modeling]] and [[construction-estimating]].
 
+%%
+## TALK
+
+This note should discuss the application of modeling in estimating,
+including what is already common practice (e.g. average run lengths),
+as well as the potential for more robust models.
+
+Models are useful where information is limited,
+and where more precise methods would be suboptimal[^1].
+
+[^1]: see [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]].
+
+Specific examples should generally be relegated to linked notes.
+
+%%
+
 ## Bayesian Takeoff
 
 #### User Story

subfeeds-takeoff.md

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ id:
 aliases: []
 tags:
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/subfeeds
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
   - authorship/original

switchgear-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/switchgear
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Switchgear

telecom-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/telecom
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Telecom

transparency-in-construction-estimating.md

@@ -1,16 +1,23 @@
 ---
 id:
 aliases: []
+title: Transparency in Construction Estimating
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - status/incomplete
+  - status/not-started
   - topic/construction
   - topic/estimating
-  - type/philosophy
+  - topic/transparency
-title: Estimating Ethics
+  - type/cross-topic
 ---
-# Estimating Ethics
+# Transparency in Construction Estimating
+
+Cross-topic of [[transparency]] and [[construction-estimating]].
+
+## Estimating Ethics
+
+### Ethics for the Solicitor
 
 Contractors engaging in unethical bidding practices
 can quickly gain a reputation for doing so,
@@ -24,15 +31,7 @@ To ensure a transparent bidding process, one must
 * maintain confidentiality of bid submissions, and
 * provide equal access to bidding information.
 
-### Terms
+### Ethics for the Bidder
-
-> [!info] Bid Shopping
-> the practice of sharing a bidder's quote with other prospective vendors
-> in order to solicit lower bids.
-> The competing quote may be legitimate, fabricated,
-> or a non-serious proposal from a colluding vendor.
-
-## Bad Bid Practice
 
 Deceptive proposal language is a quick way to get blacklisted.
 
@@ -43,3 +42,11 @@ is particularly reprehensible.
 > * Not including consideration for voltage drop
 > * Including standard, line-voltage switching as "lighting control"
 > * Excluding all mechanical disconnects
+
+### Terms
+
+> [!info] Bid Shopping
+> the practice of sharing a bidder's quote with other prospective vendors
+> in order to solicit lower bids.
+> The competing quote may be legitimate, fabricated,
+> or a non-serious proposal from a colluding vendor.

two-way-takeoff.md

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ aliases:
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/standalone-systems
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Two-Way Takeoff
@@ -33,9 +33,7 @@ title: Two-Way Takeoff
     * FCR to elevator lobbies
     * FCR to stairwells
     
-    **Count** = Number of boxes run to. Per drawings if shown, otherwise use the greater of:
+    **Count** = Count of elevator lobbies or stairwells (match length)
-    * Count of elevators
-    * Count of stairwells
 
 ## Vertical
 
@@ -44,7 +42,7 @@ title: Two-Way Takeoff
     `FIRE ALARM & DAS SYSTEMS`/`TWO WAY COMMUNICATION ASSEMBLIES`/`2-WAY COMMUNICATION = 1" CONDUIT ...`
     
     * **Length** = 15ft * Count
-    * **Count** = _match Horizontal_
+    * **Count** = match Horizontal
 
 ## Firefighter Phone System
 

uncertainty-in-construction-estimating.md

@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+---
+id:
+aliases: []
+title: Uncertainty in Construction Estimating
+tags: []
+---
+# Uncertainty in Construction Estimating
+
+Cross-topic of [[uncertainty]] and [[construction-estimating]].
+
+This note is intended to be purely descriptive.
+See [[actuarial-science-for-construction-estimating]]
+and [[risk-management-for-construction-estimating]]
+for strategy based on such uncertainty.
+
+%%
+## TALK
+
+What do I mean that project cost is uncertain until the last invoice?
+
+What distributions exist
+which are known,
+which can never be known and must be estimated?
+
+[[bid-price-modeling]]
+
+***
+
+With perfect information all outcomes are certain.
+
+There exists some distribution representing the range of possible costs for a project.
+The remaining uncertainty represents ignorance of information an estimator can not feasibly obtain.
+
+***
+
+Suppose the estimator has spent years on the bid,
+running simulations, consulting experts, etc.
+
+Suppose the estimator has received a message from a time traveler
+which details significant news events and commodity markets
+for the duration of the project.
+
+Suppose the estimator is prescient and has observed the final cost of the project
+as reported in the winning contractor's historicals.
+
+%%
+
+## Expected Value of Perfect Information
+
+[[uncertainty#Expected Value of Perfect Information]]
+
+%%
+
+an organization pays in estimator hours.
+These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits,
+however the greater cost is the opportunity cost
+of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
+
+In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput
+far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
+
+%%

uncertainty.md

@@ -75,19 +75,6 @@ in order to gain access to perfect information.
 The perceived _value_ of decreased uncertainty
 must be weighed against its _cost_.
 
-#### In Construction Estimating
-
-This concept provides the basis for the solution
-of one or more [[open-problems-in-estimating]].
-To reduce [[risk]] in [[construction-estimating]],
-an organization pays in estimator hours.
-These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits,
-however the greater cost is the opportunity cost
-of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project.
-
-In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput
-far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids.
-
 ## Types of Uncertainty
 
 ### Aleatory Uncertainty

units-takeoff.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ aliases: []
 tags:
   - authorship/original
   - destiny/permanent
-  - occupational/takeoff/units
+  - occupational/takeoff
   - status/draft
   - type/guide
 title: Unit Takeoff