diff --git a/bid-price-modeling.md b/bid-price-modeling.md index 3480a15..f4f6fc3 100644 --- a/bid-price-modeling.md +++ b/bid-price-modeling.md @@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ $$ where $\mathrm{Var}[C]$ is the [variance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance) and $\lambda>0$ is a risk-loading parameter. -> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in portfolio theory. +> This mirrors mean-variance pricing common in [[modern-portfolio-theory]]. ## 3. Quantile-based pricing diff --git a/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md b/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md index 11b06aa..4c5a52c 100644 --- a/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md +++ b/consolidate-estimating-thoughts.md @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Still deciding if I'm capable of being opinionated without rambling. * [[estimating-methodologies]] * [[construction-estimating-software]] * [[history-of-construction-estimating]] -* [[labor-factoring]] +* [[estimate-laboring]] ### New Cross-Topics diff --git a/construction-estimating.md b/construction-estimating.md index 4a6a750..5f34959 100644 --- a/construction-estimating.md +++ b/construction-estimating.md @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ For philosophy see [[bid-process-strategy]] * [[history-of-construction-estimating]] * [[estimating-methodologies]] * [[construction-estimating-software]] -* [[labor-factoring]] +* [[estimate-laboring]] ### Cross-Topics diff --git a/construction-methods.md b/construction-methods.md index 1d47420..90d100b 100644 --- a/construction-methods.md +++ b/construction-methods.md @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ Those around elevator shafts form a "shear core". > [!info] Reference > * [Concrete Slab | Different types of Slabs in Construction](https://www.constructioncost.co/slabs-in-construction.html) -> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications -- theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/) +> * [Concrete Slab Types -- Construction, Cost, and Applications | theconstructor.org](https://theconstructor.org/practical-guide/concrete-slab-construction-cost/28153/) ### Conventional Slab diff --git a/converting-documents-to-markdown.md b/converting-documents-to-markdown.md index 82461d7..1a78a9e 100644 --- a/converting-documents-to-markdown.md +++ b/converting-documents-to-markdown.md @@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ tags: - destiny/permanent - status/incomplete - type/guide + - topic/hobbies/digitizing title: Converting Documents to Markdown dg-publish: true --- diff --git a/convex-hull.md b/convex-hull.md index 81246eb..aef45f7 100644 --- a/convex-hull.md +++ b/convex-hull.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ id: aliases: [] tags: - - authorship/original + - authorship/other-for-now - destiny/permanent - status/incomplete - topic/math @@ -12,7 +12,10 @@ dg-publish: true --- # Convex Hull -[Convex Hull](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull) +> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_hull) +> the **convex hull**, **convex envelope** or **convex closure** of a shape +> is the smallest [convex set](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convex_set "Convex set") +> that contains it. ```tikz \usepackage{pgfplots} diff --git a/csharp.md b/csharp.md index d528670..f6c3c8a 100644 --- a/csharp.md +++ b/csharp.md @@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ dg-publish: true # C\# C\# (read "C sharp", like the [[music-theory|musical]] symbol) +is modern high-level [[programming-languages|language]] +supporting [[object-oriented-programing|object-oriented]] patterns. It is the sane man's Java. diff --git a/digital-garden-homepage.md b/digital-garden-homepage.md index 5581b1d..953de42 100644 --- a/digital-garden-homepage.md +++ b/digital-garden-homepage.md @@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ see [[complaints]] for how you can help me fix it. ### Broken Links The private repository from which this site is built includes copyrighted materials, -(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right by case law) +(which I own and have personally digitized, as is my right, supported by case law) of note, nearly the entirety of the [[nfpa-70_national-electric-code|NEC]], which [[conductor-sizing]] and [[alternating-current]] frequently reference. Because this website is public I choose not to publish those materials here, diff --git a/labor-factoring.md b/estimate-laboring.md similarity index 100% rename from labor-factoring.md rename to estimate-laboring.md diff --git a/fooled-by-randomness.md b/fooled-by-randomness.md index a2b8246..c91540d 100644 --- a/fooled-by-randomness.md +++ b/fooled-by-randomness.md @@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ much more so to dismiss the tests used to prove the validity of statistical meth ### False Lucky Fools -Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate lucky fools +Taleb repeatedly conflates legitimate [[lucky-fools|lucky fools]] and people with ideas he doesn't like. > [[hubbard_2020_failure]] @@ -133,12 +133,11 @@ One of many problems with this presentation is that John is described as young, inexperienced, and of low intelligence. John is a typical lucky fool: -there is no indication that he has any strategy, -much less that he is practicing modern portfolio theory. +there is no indication that he has _any_ strategy, +much less that he is practicing [[modern-portfolio-theory]]. If I mistake Taleb's intent, and the story was only meant to convey that experienced, conscientious, and cautious decision-making _can_ lead a person to success, then I'm not sure who he's arguing against. - diff --git a/heuristics.md b/heuristics.md index d21e57e..977388e 100644 --- a/heuristics.md +++ b/heuristics.md @@ -22,6 +22,15 @@ With that heuristic, one can closely approximate small dimensions, even without the proper tools. +It is tempting to believe that heuristics are not ideal, +that the most accurate method ought to be preferred. + +%% +even using a ruler is a heuristic, +subject to the tool's tolerance +and reliant on its proper use. +%% + ## Realism vs. Instrumentalism Realism holds that the purpose of [scientific research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research) @@ -29,6 +38,16 @@ is to describe the world as accurately as possible. Instrumentalism (anti-realism) argues that the purpose is to _forecast as accurately as possible_. +> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.) +> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed" +> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth, +> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses, +> which the model does very well. +> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective. + +Realism is noble, granted, +but instrumentalism is far more practical. + > [!quote] George E. P. Box, British statistician > All models are wrong, but some are useful.[^1] @@ -37,10 +56,3 @@ is to _forecast as accurately as possible_. > does not necessarily detract from its usefulness > because all models are approximations. > Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. - -> [!quote] _Opinionated History of Mathematics_, "Did Copernicus steal ideas from Islamic astronomers?" (pp.) -> Ptolemy's lunar model is "flawed" -> in that it inaccurately describes Luna's distance from Earth, -> however Ptolemy only ever used the model to predict eclipses, -> which the model does very well. -> The discrepancy is only a flaw from a realist perspective. diff --git a/hubbard_2020_failure.md b/hubbard_2020_failure.md index 6844d5b..83f5b78 100644 --- a/hubbard_2020_failure.md +++ b/hubbard_2020_failure.md @@ -158,14 +158,16 @@ He wrote *The Black Swan* and other books critical of common practice in risk ma especially in (but not limited to) the financial world, as well as the nonquantitative hubris of Wall Street. -A heretic of financial convention, he argues that Nobel Prize--- -winning modern portfolio theory and options theory (briefly mentioned in chapter 5) +A heretic of financial convention, +he argues that Nobel Prize-winning modern portfolio theory and options theory +(briefly mentioned in chapter 5) are fundamentally flawed and are in fact no better than astrology. In fact, Taleb considers this prize is itself an intellectual fraud. -After all, as he rightly points out, it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel, +After all, as he rightly points out, +it was not established in the will of Alfred Nobel, but by the Royal Bank of Sweden seventy-five years after Nobel's death. -He even claims that once, in a public forum, he riled up one such prizewinner -to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger. +He even claims that once, in a public forum, +he riled up one such prizewinner to the point of red-faced, fist-pounding anger. Taleb bases a lot of his thesis on the fact that the impact of chance is unappreciated by mostly everyone. diff --git a/individual-ability.md b/individual-ability.md index ab95fe4..9d63991 100644 --- a/individual-ability.md +++ b/individual-ability.md @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ familiarity requires maintenance. ## TALK -Expertise as heuristics and biases -[Daniel Kahneman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman) +Expertise as [[heuristics]] and biases +[[kahneman_2011_thinking]] %% diff --git a/lucky-fools.md b/lucky-fools.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4b10148 --- /dev/null +++ b/lucky-fools.md @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Lucky Fools +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/incomplete +--- +# Lucky Fools + +A lucky fool is someone who stumbled into success +in a field where competence is normally prerequisite. + +%% +Books concerned with lucky fools: +[[hubbard_2020_failure]] +[[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]] +[[kahneman_2011_thinking]] +%% diff --git a/modern-portfolio-theory.md b/modern-portfolio-theory.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ffaaa0f --- /dev/null +++ b/modern-portfolio-theory.md @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: Modern Portfolio Theory +tags: + - authorship/other-for-now + - destiny/permanent + - status/not-started +--- +# Modern Portfolio Theory + +> [!quote] [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory) +> Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis, +> is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets +> such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk. diff --git a/object-oriented-programing-for-construction-estimating.md b/object-oriented-programing-for-construction-estimating.md index d9ec246..ecda52d 100644 --- a/object-oriented-programing-for-construction-estimating.md +++ b/object-oriented-programing-for-construction-estimating.md @@ -36,4 +36,4 @@ Solves database conflicts by pinning estimates to a commit. * [[breakdown-objects]] * [[assembly-objects]] -* [[labor-factoring]] +* [[estimate-laboring]] diff --git a/personal-knowledge-management.md b/personal-knowledge-management.md index bbaae19..7fd81d6 100644 --- a/personal-knowledge-management.md +++ b/personal-knowledge-management.md @@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ especially with [Obsidian](https://www.google.com/search?q=getting+started+with+ Note that PKM gets a lot of hype from productivity influencers so you may leave some of those videos feeling like you need to pick up bouldering. -It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that of these hundreds +It speaks to the highly personal nature of PKM that, of these hundreds, there is no consensus larger than two on best practice. ## See Also diff --git a/personal-values.md b/personal-values.md index 08eb89d..5b42d82 100644 --- a/personal-values.md +++ b/personal-values.md @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ requires a thorough understanding and accurate quantization of their * fitness goals * preference for ice cream relative to other desert options * natural tendency to form unhealthy habits -among many others. +among many other factors. For an individual who strongly values their health and physical fitness, the knowledge that they would be acting in violation of those values @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ skews the calculation so far to the negative that internal debate is unnecessary. Frequently, individuals are capable of effectively rationalizing their values -(it's not difficult to imagine that all variables considered, +(it's not difficult to imagine that, all variables considered, the objective utility of the additional ice cream is negative for most people). In this way they are behavioral [[heuristics]]: subjective utility diff --git a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md index fb0bcdc..8fa1ff5 100644 --- a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md +++ b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md @@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Expert opinion is valuable, but its weaknesses must be compensated for. %% TODO: %% -Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics, +Experts tend to be good at creating [[heuristics]], but do not apply them consistently in practice. > [!example] @@ -122,6 +122,8 @@ This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers** > there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record > _by luck alone_. +That is, there is a 30% chance The Red Baron was a [[lucky-fools|lucky fool]] + He later refers to the popular tendency to overvalue competence and undervalue luck in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments @@ -168,7 +170,7 @@ For risk-neutral parties, expected value would equal CME *** Another factor at play here -is that utility is not proportional to monetary value. +is that [[utility]] is not proportional to monetary value. Consider these additional choices: diff --git a/the-henry-tower-two.md b/the-henry-tower-two.md index f3358f7..d27e23c 100644 --- a/the-henry-tower-two.md +++ b/the-henry-tower-two.md @@ -1,11 +1,12 @@ --- id: aliases: [] -title: +title: The Henry Tower Two tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - - status/not-started - occupational/project + - status/not-started dg-publish: true ---- \ No newline at end of file +--- +# The Henry Tower Two diff --git a/this-notebook.md b/this-notebook.md index a9f1752..fcf8d51 100644 --- a/this-notebook.md +++ b/this-notebook.md @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ My response is simply that it's fun to write like this. ## Conventions -### Semantic Line Breaks +### Text Wrapping I didn't like them at first, but this notebook uses [[semantic-line-breaks]] diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md index 4cec627..ec45945 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-11_11-00-00.md @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ it is not cost-effective[^1] to allow it to take four.[^2] [^1]: "Cost" referring both to estimator salaries and the opportunity cost of declined bids. -[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a modern portfolio theory styled record of estimates +[^2]: Supposing a contractor maintained a [[modern-portfolio-theory]] styled record of estimates including pending bids, and projects ongoing and completed (each with confidence estimates), uncorrupted by [[estimating-culture#Incentives|perverse incentives]], diff --git a/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md b/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md index a1063a0..058e66c 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-02-04_08-07-00.md @@ -71,12 +71,12 @@ What's being done to prevent it from re-emerging? It is my belief that the most practical solution is the frequent rotation of estimators in senior teams. It is in the interest of estimators -that their personal heuristics not depend on who they're working for, +that their personal [[heuristics]] not depend on who they're working for, so they can be expected to call attention to inconsistency allowing it to be addressed permanently. The only other option I can imagine -is to document exact procedures for every scenario, +is to document _exact_ procedures for _every_ scenario, which is obviously foolhardy. ### Less Important diff --git a/utility.md b/utility.md index 8f0d92a..f3241ab 100644 --- a/utility.md +++ b/utility.md @@ -13,11 +13,18 @@ dg-publish: true # Utility [Utility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility) -is a measure of a party's satisfaction +is a measure of a party's **satisfaction** with a certain state of the world. The measure is intended to account for unintuitive quirks of human perception of value. -A rich man is not as satisfied with receiving one dollar as a poor man, +A rich man is not as _satisfied_ by receiving one dollar as a poor man would be, therefore the utility of the dollar is contextual, not objective. [Sorites paradox in utility theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorites_paradox#Resolutions_in_utility_theory) + +## Normative and Descriptive Utility + +**Normative utility** is utility as self-reported, +subject to the biases of the party. + +**Descriptive utility** is utility as determined from the party's behavior. diff --git a/vanderbilt-central-neighborhood-residential-college.md b/vanderbilt-central-neighborhood-residential-college.md index f3358f7..5e36e79 100644 --- a/vanderbilt-central-neighborhood-residential-college.md +++ b/vanderbilt-central-neighborhood-residential-college.md @@ -1,11 +1,12 @@ --- id: aliases: [] -title: +title: Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College tags: - authorship/original - destiny/permanent - - status/not-started - occupational/project + - status/not-started dg-publish: true ---- \ No newline at end of file +--- +# Vanderbilt Central Neighborhood Residential College