vault backup: 2026-05-29 18:27:50

the-failure-of-risk-management.md

@@ -111,11 +111,11 @@ This the unstated other half of the **law of large numbers**
 
 #### Red Baron Effect
 
-> [!cite] Chapter 7 p.154 (pp.)
-> Hubbard describes a study which concluded that,
-> given the number of German pilots and their overall victory/defeat figures,
-> there was a ~30% chance an individual would achieve The Red Baron's record
-> _by luck alone_.
+> [!quote] [[hubbard_2020_failure#Chapter 7 The Limits Of Expert Knowledge Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know About Uncertainty]]
+> ...given the number of pilots and the win ratio,
+> there was about a 30 percent chance that, by luck alone,
+> one pilot would have gotten eighty kills,
+> the number Manfred von Richthofen is credited for.
 
 That is, there is a 30% chance The Red Baron was a [[lucky-fools|lucky fool]]