vault backup: 2026-05-29 18:27:50

timestamped/2026-05-29_17-19-37.md

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+---
+id: 2026-05-29T17:19:37-0400
+title: 2026-05-29 17:19:37
+tags: []
+daily: "[[2026-05-29]]"
+---
+# 2026-05-29 17:19:37
+
+I suspect that in general of [[conest]],
+our assemblies are not intended to have fluff built in,
+or that our preferred methods
+are intended to include more material than necessary.
+We prefer to tolerate the uncertainty, to retain the risk,
+weighing it less than that of committing additional resources
+to mitigation (estimating).
+
+[[hubbard_2020_failure#Simple Risk Management]]
+is perhaps the single most important section of Hubbard's
+for breaking free of the confines of [[orthodox-construction-estimating]].
+
+> It might seem that some extremely obvious risks
+> can be managed without much of an assessment effort
+> (e.g., implementing full backup and recovery
+> at a data center that doesn't have it,
+> installing security systems at a major jewelry store, etc.).
+> But in most environments, there are numerous risks,
+> each with one or more potential risk mitigation strategies
+> and a limited number of resources.
+> We have to assess not only the initial risks
+> ==but also how much the risk would change==
+> ==if various precautions were taken.==
+
+Detailed takeoff is poor risk mitigation.