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risk-oriented-estimating.md

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+# Risk Oriented Estimating
+
+Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]]
+which prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to cost certainty,
+and determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
+given [[risk#Risk Tolerance]]
+
+ROE leans heavily on [[expected-value-of-perfect-information]],
+which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty
+with the reality of the cost of certainty.
+
+ROE does not endorse common shortcuts which round up to "cover" uncertainty,
+as these ultimately _increase_ risk by inflating the apparent project cost,
+increasing the probability of loss to a competitor.
+
+Bid risk may fit a [Taleb distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taleb_distribution).
+
+Actuarial Science