vault backup: 2026-05-15 16:58:51

2026-05-15 16:58:51 -04:00
parent 901a23ae0e
commit b1b483daf8
38 changed files with 2562 additions and 75 deletions
@@ -21,16 +21,8 @@ variance of actual cost/hours versus estimated,
 (obviously) requires estimates,
 which are subject to bias and error.
 If you argue that subject matter expert estimates _are_ objective
-<<<<<<< HEAD
 under a Bayesian interpretation,
 then sure, but then EVM is not unique.

 EVM WBS's, as a form of [[estimate-decomposition]],
 suffer from its weakness of compounding inaccuracy.
-=======
-under the Bayesian interpretation,
-then sure, but then EVM is not unique.
-
-EVM as a form of [[estimate-decomposition]]
-suffers f
->>>>>>> origin/main
@@ -2,10 +2,10 @@
 id: 2026-03-02T15:35:49-0500
 title: 2026-03-02 15:35:49
 tags:
-  - status/draft
  - occupational
-date-created: 2026-03-02T15:35:49-05:00
+  - status/draft
 daily: "[[2026-03-02]]"
+date-created: 2026-03-02T15:35:49-05:00
 ---
 # 2026-03-02 15:35:49

@@ -14,4 +14,4 @@ daily: "[[2026-03-02]]"
 Change order for awarded project [[belle-meade-plaza|Belle Meade Plaza]]

 Distribution Panel "DPCT2" was deleted,
-orphaned loads to be served from "DPCT" (previously "DPCT1")
+orphaned loads to be served from "DPCT" (previously "DPCT1")
@@ -207,7 +207,8 @@ and completes each systems accurately (FA/DAS/2Way).

 Zane references Electrical and Low Voltage drawings
 to determine job requirements for accurate take-off of the Telecom system.
-Telecom seems to be a living system that changes between initial take-off to completion,
+Telecom seems to be a living system
+that changes between initial take-off to completion,
 and Zane does a good job to stay on top of it.
 Can improve speed of take-off

@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ with clarification by [[joel-jansen]]:
 >     in dry locations only.

 > [!quote] Joel Jansen 2026-03-10 (pp.)
-> Takeoff as specified
+> Take off as specified

 ### Liquid-Tight Conduit

@@ -21,7 +21,8 @@ with a search algorithm like [A*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A*_search_algori
 Such a program could also calculate voltage drop.

 I think, though, I may have been unfair to my employers (current and previous).
-Innovative methods will always be bottlenecked by [[accubid|Accubid]]'s strict input pattern,
+Innovative methods will always be bottlenecked
+by [[accubid|Accubid]]'s strict input pattern,
 but there are still opportunities for improvement
 that can comply with existing expectations of evidence.

@@ -26,8 +26,11 @@ be used to track
 Intent is too provide information to the bid team
 potentially to be qualified in future bids.

-> 1. ConEst deviates from specs based on direction from [[pdi-bid-estimating|Bid]].
+> 1. ConEst deviates from specs
+>     based on direction from [[pdi-bid-estimating|Bid]].
+>
 > 2. Awarded contract does not include respect for the direction
+>
 > 3. Ops, not aware of direction, believes ConEst takeoff was in error.

 Intent is to improve transparency,
@@ -19,9 +19,11 @@ Follow-up to [[2026-03-19_09-00-43]]
 > Following up from our meeting yesterday.
 > Please see attached for the Pre-takeoff template and example.
 >
-> * The template is saved here: S:\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\ConEst Process Documents
+> * The template is saved here:
+>     S:\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\ConEst Process Documents
 >
-> * When completed please save in #4. Notes & E-mails within the project folder.
+> * When completed please save in
+>     #4. Notes & E-mails within the project folder.
 >
 > * When distribution to the team,
 >     please send content within the body of the email
@@ -30,10 +32,14 @@ Follow-up to [[2026-03-19_09-00-43]]
 > * Distribution List:
 >
 >     * To: PCM, Senior Estimator & Estimator
->     * CC: Senior Construction Estimator, Other ConEst team members on the project, Josh Ford, Corwin Fluit & Jessalyn Williams
+>     * CC: Senior Construction Estimator,
+>         Other ConEst team members on the project,
+>         Josh Ford, Corwin Fluit & Jessalyn Williams
 >
-> * We will not use this exact template for Design Builds (remove spec portion of email),
->     Data Centers, Stadiums or Large commercial projects (We will customize based on SOW)
+> * We will not use this exact template for Design Builds
+>     (remove spec portion of email),
+>     Data Centers, Stadiums or Large commercial projects
+>     (We will customize based on SOW)
 >
 > For the tasks, I will set up a separate meeting to go over that portion,
 > feel free to leave that portion off the email until after that training.
@@ -9,20 +9,21 @@ daily: "[[2026-03-23]]"
 ---
 # 2026-03-23 12:48:49

-[[joel-jansen]] asked me to give feedback on the project engineer
-I've had shadowing and helping me on [[charlotte-south-end-hotel]].
+[[joel-jansen]] asked me to give feedback on Christopher Glass,
+the project engineer I've had shadowing me
+and helping on [[charlotte-south-end-hotel]].

-They've been exceptionally engaged,
+He's been exceptionally engaged,
 with an impressive ability to follow along with procedures
 that are based in electrical and general construction considerations
-that they weren't already familiar with.
+that he wasn't already familiar with.
 I told Joel the same.

-I added that I appreciated that their engagement extends
+I added that I appreciated that his engagement extends
 to my explanations of my thought processes during takeoff,
 which can be quite abstract.

-I found the PE's receptivity
+I found Chris's receptivity
 a pleasant surprise.
 In my experience training estimating,
 both at Ace and PDI,
@@ -20,14 +20,14 @@ Intent is to reduce WBS turnaround,
 reduce time spent sitting on WBS's completed
 except for pending tasks.

-A task is "missing"
-if it is necessary to complete the WBS
-and it is not already open (or completed) in BPM.
+A task is "missing" if
+1. it is necessary to complete the WBS
+2. it is not already open (or completed) in BPM.

 * **BPM > Bid History:** Tasks within the current Bid Round
 * **BPM > Tasks:** Tasks outside of Bid Round

-    Tasks > 1. Open Tasks
+    Tasks > 1. Open Tasks \
    Tasks > 2. Completed Tasks

 * Constructability Review
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ daily: "[[2026-03-26]]"
 ## 1990 K Street: ConEst Manager Review

 [[conest-manager-review]] for [[1990-k-street]]
-lead by Josh Ford and [[joel-jansen]]
+lead by [[josh-ford|Josh Ford]] and [[joel-jansen|Joel Jansen]]

 ### Purpose of ConEst Manager Review

@@ -53,12 +53,14 @@ to be confirmed with [[christian-pereiro]].

 ### EV Chargers

-EV Chargers were erroneously placed in `System` "EL - Electrical".
+> [!failure]
+> EV Chargers were erroneously placed in `System` "EL - Electrical".

 ### Lighting Controls

-Josh was looking for for energy code
-not present in pre-takeoff email or OneNote.
+> [!failure]
+> Josh was looking for for energy code
+> not present in pre-takeoff email or OneNote.

 ASHRAE 2016

@@ -18,6 +18,9 @@ attended by [[joel-jansen]] and myself.

 "MSA TO BUSDUCT"
 needs more elbows: added.
+
+***
+
 Josh talked about necessary pullboxes,
 but they were not added.
 Josh stated the purpose of the closeout budget
@@ -25,6 +28,8 @@ is to prevent procurement from buying sizes
 that may be chosen arbitrarily.
 Added $5,000 to the budget.

+***
+
 Concern was expressed
 that feeders up from Main Elec may need to be lengthened
 to follow MSA TO BUSDUCT routing shown on floor plans.
@@ -53,13 +58,13 @@ Josh complemented subfeed routing:
 "That's taking pride in your work."

 I have had hesitation that it was worth doing,
-if someone told be it was a waste of time,
+if someone told me it was a waste of time,
 I would not have been inclined to disagree.

 #### Units

 Unit receptacles are shown controlled by master switch system.
-I assumed full control (not half) so no made no consideration in takeoff.
+I assumed full control (not half) so made no consideration in takeoff.
 Approved.

 #### Lighting Control
@@ -79,7 +84,7 @@ DO NOT USE `System` "LV - Lighting Controls System" EVER

 > [!quote] Josh Ford
 > We're carrying material handling
-> because we own fixtures and its a tall building
+> because we own fixtures and it's a tall building

 #### Labor Plan

@@ -22,9 +22,11 @@ I would not be surprised to hear of an estimator responding this way
 even after Hubbard's calibration.
 Hubbard repeatedly conflates estimates of uncertain events
 with personal estimates of trivia questions with certain answers.
-These are functionally identical,
-but _feel_ very different.
+Under Bayesian statistics these cases are identical,
+but they still _feel_ very different.
 Hubbard could do better to address this bias.

-If you don't know the answer offhand,
-imagine it has been lost to time.
+If you don't know the answer offhand, imagine it has been lost to time.
+According to most discographers,
+The Winstons' _Color Him Father_ (the origin of the Amen break)
+was released "May 1969", with no date.
@@ -8,11 +8,18 @@ date-created: 2026-04-08T13:53:59-04:00
 ---
 # 2026-04-08 13:53:59

-> [!quote] [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]] (text decoration added)
-> An assumption is a statement we treat as true for the sake of argument, regardless of whether it is true.
-> Assumptions are necessary if you have to use deterministic accounting methods with exact points as values.
+> [!quote] Hubbard et al[^1]
+> An assumption is a statement
+> we treat as true for the sake of argument,
+> regardless of whether it is true.
+> Assumptions are necessary
+> if you have to use deterministic accounting methods
+> with exact points as values.
 > ==You rarely, if ever, know an exact point with certainty,==
 > ==so any such value must be an assumption.==

+[^1]: [[hubbard_2025_project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
+    (text decoration added)
+
 Assumptions are frowned upon in [[construction-estimating]],
 but they are only made necessary by the insistence on exact values.
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ Data grabbed from The Hub last year before I lost access
 has both sale price and cost at exactly $19,906,645.23.

 > [!aside]
-> Obviously this is doctored,
+> Obviously this is phony,
 > which is immensely frustrating,
 > but irrelevant to this note.

@@ -30,9 +30,9 @@ and with that I feel my understanding has doubled.
    At 5,976,038 sqft per BPM
    that comes out to almost exactly $0.04 per sqft.

-If ConEst is budgeted per square foot
-then it should follow that ConEst effort
-should be proportional to building area,
+ConEst is budgeted per square foot
+which suggests that total ConEst effort
+is expected to be proportional to building area,
 but this is not usually the case in practice.
 Since larger jobs tend to have more typical work,
 jobs of every size tend to take about two weeks
@@ -21,8 +21,8 @@ but when there was still vocal opposition
 to its adoption as such.

 In elementary school I was taught how to use the library traditionally
-and I heard every week that on Wikipedia
-erroneous content is presented as fact.
+and I heard every week
+that on Wikipedia erroneous content is presented as fact.
 At the time I took issue with the warning,
 now I recognize it as implicit [[nirvana-fallacy]].
 Print encyclopedias have the same problem
@@ -44,9 +44,9 @@ Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
 but already two from today.

 In another another three
-my kid will say the same.
-Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
-but already five from today.
+my kid will say the same:
+"Just a decade after the Rolodex was killed,
+but already five from today."

 Chips get faster,
 apps get slower.
@@ -8,11 +8,12 @@ daily: "[[2026-04-12]]"
 ---
 # 2026-04-12 02:23:28

-Speaking to a mechanical engineer formerly employed by PDI
+Speaking to a mechanical engineer
+formerly employed by [[power-design-inc|PDI]]
 I asked if they had any examples of PDI-specific practice
 that they had been lead to believe was industry standard.
 They said that the drafting that they were expected to perform
-was at an unhappy middle ground of detail
+was at an unhappy middle ground of granularity
 between the practice they were taught in school
 would be appropriate for their skill
 and that which they associated with operations.
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ because one can not think as deeply while standing as while sitting.[^1]
    I think the largest part of my tendency
    is that I don't like people watching me work.

-He clarified that he did this in order to _focus_,
+He clarified that he did this _in order to focus_,
 which I have heard before but never gave much credit.
 I then made the now obvious connection
 that impairing deep thinking is exactly the method
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ to prevent the most pain from future mistakes.
 ***

 Rationale is the most important part of the entry.
-It's not helpful to say 
+It's not helpful to say "I just wasn't thinking".
 If that's truly what seems to be the cause,
 consider your state at the time:
 Were you mentally exhausted?
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ daily: "[[2026-04-15]]"
 ---
 # 2026-04-15 17:31:57

-A peer, not intending to,
+[[william-bonn|Willie]], not intending to,
 convinced me I should buy my next car
 as much over email as possible.

@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@ daily: "[[2026-04-15]]"
 The [Gell-Mann amnesia effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#%22Gell-Mann_amnesia_effect%22)
 may explain my tendency to rave about literature on other disciplines.
 I am a bitter detractor of Mike Holt,
-(who may be the only thing approaching a published researcher in our shared fields[^1])
+(who may be the only thing approaching a published researcher
+in our shared fields[^1])
 but I'm quick to ignore typos and other presentation issues
 which may be indicative of low rigor
 in books and articles for adjacent fields.
@@ -9,7 +9,8 @@ daily: "[[2026-04-29]]"
 ## Soldiering

 [**Soldiering**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management#Soldiering)
-describes the practice of performing the bare minimum necessary to avoid punishment.
+describes the practice of workers
+performing to the bare minimum necessary to avoid punishment.

 Coined in [[taylor_1911_scientific-management]],
 though Taylor acknowledged the tendency was given many names.
@@ -27,7 +27,8 @@ Evidence for the theory seems to come down to two points:

 * **Zampanò is personally invested in _The Navidson Record_.**
    It is widely understood that _House of Leaves_
-    (by Zampanò, not the fictional book Navy reads in the _Record_)
+    (by Zampanò, not by Danielewski,
+    also not the fictional book Navy reads in the _Record_)
    is allegorical for Zampanò's blindness.
    At times, Zampanò refers to Navy in the first person.
    These do not prove he invented the narrative,
@@ -15,8 +15,6 @@ received while working on [[hilltop-gardens|Hilltop Gardens]].

 Relevant to [[two-way-takeoff]]:

-
-
 > [!quote] Ben O'Brien's OneNote: Takeoff/(FA RISER + 2-WAY)
 > * Horizontal:
 >     * Length: