diff --git a/accubid-setup.md b/accubid-setup.md index d1dfc6f..bcf9a92 100644 --- a/accubid-setup.md +++ b/accubid-setup.md @@ -7,6 +7,14 @@ tags: --- # Accubid Setup +## Info + +### Automation + +It is likely infeasible to automate LiveCount and Accubid project creation. +However, a script could launch the apps with a procedure, +setting the clipboard. + ## Sequence ### Create LiveCount Project @@ -27,6 +35,10 @@ Refresh the page and open the newly created project. ``` # Extract drawings to ".\Trimble Connect (Plans)" + +mv '*FIRE ALARM*.pdf' '.\Fire Alarm\' +mv '*POWER PLAN*.pdf' '.\Power\' +mv '*SITE*.pdf' '.\Site\' ``` Upload extracted drawings to LiveCount diff --git a/calibration-questions.md b/calibration-questions.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c8ee712 --- /dev/null +++ b/calibration-questions.md @@ -0,0 +1,126 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +tags: [] +--- +# Calibration Questions + +## Examples + +### Boolean + +> The melting point of tin is higher than the melting point of aluminum. + +> In English, the word "quality" is more frequently used that the word "speed". + +reductive (used more frequently where?) + +> Any male pig is referred to as a hog. + +reductive (referred to by whom?) + +> California's giant sequoia trees are named for an early 19th century leader of the Cherokee Indians. + +reductive + +> The Model T was the first car produced by Henry Ford. + +reductive (Henry Ford didn't produce cars) + +> When rolling 2 dice, a roll of 7 is more likely than a 3. + +facile + +> No one has ever been reported to have been hit by any object that fell from space. + +reductive (reported by whom?) + +> Sir Christopher Wren was a British anthropologist. + +> Pakistan does not border Russia. + +unnecessary negative form, otherwise good. + +> The Navy won the first Army-Navy football game. + +should specify the official event name, otherwise good. + +> The paperback version of the book "The Da Vinci Code", as of July 2007, still ranks in the top 500 bestselling books on Amazon. + +obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good + +> Italian has more words than any other language. + +reductive (what is a word? what dialect?) + +> The month of August is named after a Greek god. + +borderline facile, reductive + +> The deepest ocean trench is deeper than the Grand Canyon. + +facile + +> Abraham Lincoln was the first president born in a log cabin. + +deceptive phrasing + +> As of July of 2007, more people search Google for  "Harry Potter" than "Hillary Clinton" (according to GoogleTrends). + +obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good + +> The population of Alabama is higher than the population of Arizona. + +borderline facile, deceptive phrasing + +> No category 5 hurricane hit the US in 2004. + +> The UK is among the top 10 largest economies in the world (by GDP). + +> The movie Forest Gump has grossed more to date than E.T. The Extra Terrestrial. + +obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good + +### Interval + +> What percentage of bronze is typically made of copper? + +reductive + +> How many countries have at least one McDonald's? + +As of when? + +> How many employees did eBay have in the first quarter of 2006 +> What was the population of Miami (within the city limits, not the entire metropolitan area) in 1990? +> How many casualties did the French suffer in the Battle of Waterloo? +> What is the range in miles of a Minuteman Missile? +> What is the percentage of IT jobs in the US were unfilled in 1997? +> The Supremes' (with Diana Ross) song "Stop! In the Name of Love" was how long? (minutes, seconds) +> How many undergraduates attended Cambridge in 1990? +> If you could jump 50 feet straight up into the air, how many seconds would you be airborne before you landed? +> How many gallons are in a bushel (they are both measures of volume)? +> How many sovereign rulers has England had in the last thousand years? +> If the air temperature was 5 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit) and the wind speed was 15 mph, what would the temperature adjusted for wind-chill be? +> Average cost of testing in software development is what percentage of total project costs? +> On average, if a software development project was projected to take 17 months, it actually takes how many months? +> How many meters tall is the Sears Tower? +> How many gold medals did Jesse Owens win at the 1936 Berlin Olympics? +> In 2005, the average combined MPG for all US cars and light trucks on the road was how much? +> The average house in the United States uses how many gallons of water per day? +> What was the average price in the United States of a house sold in 2001? + +## Writing Good Calibration Questions + +A good calibration question should not feel like it could be a "trick" question. + +Definitions/terminology are _always_ contentious, +questions based on them always feel deceptive. + +Interval "questions" should describe the quantity +rather than phrase it as a question. + +## Strategy for Answering Calibration Questions + +Confidence should never be less than probability of picking randomly +(50% for true) diff --git a/feeders.md b/feeders.md index 86ba68a..e9c8894 100644 --- a/feeders.md +++ b/feeders.md @@ -2,7 +2,6 @@ id: feeders aliases: [] tags: - - occupational - occupational/systems/feeders --- # Feeders @@ -80,13 +79,7 @@ Locate: #### Sleeving -Provide sleeves for all feeder conduits passing through floors. - -`ITEM DATABASE`/`HILTI`/`CAST-IN DEVICE CP 680-...` - -* Concrete => P (Plastic - Combustible) -* Wood Framed => M (Metal - Non-Combustible) - +See [[sleeving]]. #### Grounding diff --git a/grounding.md b/grounding.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6a7095f --- /dev/null +++ b/grounding.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +--- +id: grounding +aliases: [] +tags: + - occupational/systems/feeders +--- +# Grounding + diff --git a/project-setup.md b/project-setup.md index dd87a3a..b9eccb4 100644 --- a/project-setup.md +++ b/project-setup.md @@ -8,12 +8,20 @@ next: setup-accubid --- # Project Setup -## Create Project Folder +## Create ConEst Project Folder ```pwsh # Copy template folder to Set-Location "\\EgnyteDrive\Shared\Estimating\7 ConEst Team\Projects\ConEst 2025\" Copy-Item ".\z.Template Folder\" ".\$region\$projectName - $state, $buildingType" + +# TODO: Create shortcut in ~/Jobs/$ConEstProjectFolderName +``` + +## Create Shortcut Folder + +```pwsh +# TODO: ``` ## Download Project Documents @@ -29,7 +37,19 @@ Set-Location ".\$region\$projectName" ## Create Unit Matrix -See Architecturals +See Architectural set. + +The Unit Matrix shows quantities for each typical + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * "Guestroom Matrix" +> * "Key Matrix" +> * "Room Matrix" +> * "Unit Mix" + +There is no standard format for these matrices. + +"QQ" is sometimes used as shorthand for double queen. ## Create Area Breakout diff --git a/sleeving.md b/sleeving.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3fcadaf --- /dev/null +++ b/sleeving.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ + +--- +id: sleeving +aliases: [] +tags: + - occupational/systems +--- +# Sleeving + +## Info + +Provide sleeves for all feeder conduits passing through floors. + +`ITEM DATABASE`/`HILTI`/`CAST-IN DEVICE CP 680-...` + +* Concrete => P (Plastic - Combustible) +* Wood Framed => M (Metal - Non-Combustible) + +## Sequence diff --git a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md index 20d7a8d..762e2c4 100644 --- a/the-failure-of-risk-management.md +++ b/the-failure-of-risk-management.md @@ -12,6 +12,14 @@ by Douglas W. Hubbard ## Key Takeaways +### Definition of Risk + +As it is most commonly understood, +risk _always_ implies a negative impact. + +For boolean cases, +risk can be represented as a vector of **probability** and **loss**. + ### Qualitative Metrics Must Be Avoided Qualitative risk analysis @@ -44,6 +52,8 @@ It describes the process of "calibration" by which people can be trained to compensate for this bias and make predictions far more accurately. +See [[calibration-questions]] for more. + Experts tend to be good at creating heuristics, but do not apply them consistently in practice. @@ -55,125 +65,8 @@ Chapter 13 introduces the [Brier Score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_scor as a method of evaluating the performance of an estimator, evaluated as the mean squared error of their forecasts. -#### The Difficulty of Calibration - -##### Boolean Examples - -> The melting point of tin is higher than the melting point of aluminum. - -> In English, the word “quality” is more frequently used that the word “speed”. - -reductive (used more frequently where?) - -> Any male pig is referred to as a hog. - -reductive (referred to by whom?) - -> California’s giant sequoia trees are named for an early 19th century leader of the Cherokee Indians. - -reductive - -> The Model T was the first car produced by Henry Ford. - -reductive (Henry Ford didn't produce cars) - -> When rolling 2 dice, a roll of 7 is more likely than a 3. - -facile - -> No one has ever been reported to have been hit by any object that fell from space. - -reductive (reported by whom?) - -> Sir Christopher Wren was a British anthropologist. - -> Pakistan does not border Russia. - -unnecessary negative form, otherwise good. - -> The Navy won the first Army-Navy football game. - -should specify the official event name, otherwise good. - -> The paperback version of the book “The Da Vinci Code”, as of July 2007, still ranks in the top 500 bestselling books on Amazon. - -obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good - -> Italian has more words than any other language. - -reductive (what is a word? what dialect?) - -> The month of August is named after a Greek god. - -borderline facile, reductive - -> The deepest ocean trench is deeper than the Grand Canyon. - -facile - -> Abraham Lincoln was the first president born in a log cabin. - -deceptive phrasing - -> As of July of 2007, more people search Google for  “Harry Potter” than “Hillary Clinton” (according to GoogleTrends). - -obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good - -> The population of Alabama is higher than the population of Arizona. - -borderline facile, deceptive phrasing - -> No category 5 hurricane hit the US in 2004. - -> The UK is among the top 10 largest economies in the world (by GDP). - -> The movie Forest Gump has grossed more to date than E.T. The Extra Terrestrial. - -obtuse phrasing, dated topic, otherwise good - -##### Interval Examples - -> What percentage of bronze is typically made of copper? - -reductive - -> How many countries have at least one McDonald’s? - -As of when? - -> How many employees did eBay have in the first quarter of 2006 -> What was the population of Miami (within the city limits, not the entire metropolitan area) in 1990? -> How many casualties did the French suffer in the Battle of Waterloo? -> What is the range in miles of a Minuteman Missile? -> What is the percentage of IT jobs in the US were unfilled in 1997? -> The Supremes’ (with Diana Ross) song “Stop! In the Name of Love” was how long? (minutes, seconds) -> How many undergraduates attended Cambridge in 1990? -> If you could jump 50 feet straight up into the air, how many seconds would you be airborne before you landed? -> How many gallons are in a bushel (they are both measures of volume)? -> How many sovereign rulers has England had in the last thousand years? -> If the air temperature was 5 degrees below zero (Fahrenheit) and the wind speed was 15 mph, what would the temperature adjusted for wind-chill be? -> Average cost of testing in software development is what percentage of total project costs? -> On average, if a software development project was projected to take 17 months, it actually takes how many months? -> How many meters tall is the Sears Tower? -> How many gold medals did Jesse Owens win at the 1936 Berlin Olympics? -> In 2005, the average combined MPG for all US cars and light trucks on the road was how much? -> The average house in the United States uses how many gallons of water per day? -> What was the average price in the United States of a house sold in 2001? - -##### Writing Good Calibration Questions - -A good calibration question should not feel like it could be a "trick" question. - -Definitions/terminology are *always* contentious, -questions based on them always feel deceptive. - -Interval "questions" should describe the quantity -rather than phrase it as a question. - -##### Strategy for Answering Calibration Questions - -Confidence should never be less than probability of picking randomly -(50% for true) +> [!example] p. 198 +> Models based on expert opinion consistently outperform the same experts. ### Luck Looks Like Skill @@ -189,8 +82,25 @@ to overvalue competence and undervalue luck in the role of achieving improbable accomplishments as the "Red Baron effect". +How many success stories are simply cases of winning a coin flipping tournament? + +### Qualitative Labels are Problematic + +> [!example] p. 170 +> Experts do not agree on the bounds of terms expressing probability. +> "Likely" vs. "Very Likely" + +> [!example] p. 182 +> risk matrix type bucketing tends to inflate the significance of small risks. + ### There's Always Enough Data +> [!quote] Voltaire +> Perfect is the enemy of good. + +> [!quote] Jon Von Neumann +> The truth is much too complicated to allow anything but approximations. + Hubbard challenges the popular rebuttal that any industry is so niche that data sufficient for quantitative models @@ -200,6 +110,27 @@ does not exist. > ...the belief that unless two things are identical in every way, > nothing learned from one can be applied to the other. +### Value of Information + +* Expected Value of Information (EVI) +* Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) + +$$ +\text{EVI} = \text{EOL} - \text{EOL}|I +$$ + +EOL translates well to continuous probabilities. + +### Single Point Estimates are Problematic + +> [!example] p. 232 +> Hubbard describes a case in the oil industry +> where decent estimating is simplified to the point of serious error +> (collapsing distributions to a single point for "accounting purposes") +> leading to the widespread underestimating of Earth's oil reserves. + +The case closely mirrors construction estimating. + ## Mentioned Topics and Abbreviations * Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) diff --git a/units.md b/units.md index 7203fe6..f46bf51 100644 --- a/units.md +++ b/units.md @@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ tags: > [!info] Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Terms > * hearing impaired (HI or H.I.) +> * hearing impaired communication (HC or H.C.) > * mobility features (MF or M.F.) > * accessible (Acc.) > * usually refers to mobility features.