From c129ffd959dfaf50a4380e6315788497059e9796 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 08:06:19 -0500 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-02-04 08:06:19 --- 2026-02-03.md | 34 +++++++++++++++++++ ...-measure-anything-in-project-management.md | 21 +++++++++++- 2 files changed, 54 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 2026-02-03.md diff --git a/2026-02-03.md b/2026-02-03.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..666657b --- /dev/null +++ b/2026-02-03.md @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +--- +id: +aliases: [] +title: 2026-02-03 +tags: + - authorship/original + - destiny/permanent + - status/draft + - type/daily +dg-publish: true +--- +# 2026-02-03 + +## 2026-02-03 08:34 + +Drawings bookmark colors + +- Lighting: Yellow +- Power: Green +- Riser/One-Line: Light Blue + +## 2026-02-03 15:04 + +It is possible, even common, +to be _confident_ in an _uncertain_ estimate. +Confidence is a measure of the potential for an estimate to vary from reality, +but an estimate can (and _should_ where possible) +include respect for uncertainty. + +## 2026-02-03 16:17 + +Valued in [[pdi-estimating#Construction Estimating (ConEst)|ConEst]] estimators: +* **consistency** +* **humility** --- willingness to say "I don't know that, please teach me" diff --git a/how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management.md b/how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management.md index 7acd86c..cebcf92 100644 --- a/how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management.md +++ b/how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management.md @@ -6,5 +6,24 @@ tags: [] --- # _How to Measure Anything in Project Management_ -> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=112&selection=40,0,41,60]] +> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=112&selection=40,0,41,60|Chapter 4, "Exploration vs. Exploitation"]] > The analogy of this to project planning is that we can keep trying to design better solutions to a problem before we commit to it. + +## Project Options + +> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=117|Chapter 4, "Choosing How to Run the Project"]] +> When a project is proposed for budget approval, planners must include a list of additions and reductions... If the project runs out of budget, then deliverables will be removed from the scope. + +This is different from alternates, +which are only considered at the time of award. + +## Value of Information + +[[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=118|Chapter 4, "How Models Indicate What to Measure"]] + +[Expected value of sample information](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value_of_sample_information) + +## Estimating Impact under Uncertainty + +> [!quote] [[How to Measure Anything in Project Management - Douglas W. Hubbard & Alexander Budzier & Andreas Bang Leed.pdf#page=170&selection=40,20,46,58|Chapter 5, "Simple Tools for Measuring Uncertainty and Risk"]] +> There is such a rule, and it is called the "record-breaking probability." It is simply $1/(1+n)$ where $n$ is the number of observations resulting in the various outcomes.