vault backup: 2025-11-21 15:31:28

estimating-culture.md

@@ -35,6 +35,28 @@ Because they are not expected to ever look at their work again,
 they have no incentive to reveal errors
 as they can simply plead ignorance if the error is discovered.
 
+## Incentives
+
+I strongly oppose any project-based incentive structure for estimators.
+Such a structure is at odds with the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating]],
+and is an example of a [perverse incentive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive).
+
+This behavior should be regulated by an accompanying _disincentive_ structure,
+but equivalent punishment becomes unfeasible
+before monetary rewards become effective.
+The absolute worst disincentive an estimator faces is termination,
+which, with fully-remote options available, is only an inconvenience.
+
+The timeline to recognize an estimate was deliberately misrepresented
+is not much shorter than that of the project.
+
+Such incentives therefore create a [[game-theory|competitive game]]
+between the estimator and the employer
+where the employer is hopelessly outmatched,
+and the estimator's [[strategy#Strictly Dominant Strategy|strictly dominant strategy]]---
+resisted only by their moral conviction---
+is to abuse the system: to bid fast, lie often, take the bag, and leave.
+
 ## Collaboration
 
 Estimation is a profession ripe for productive collaboration.
@@ -80,9 +102,3 @@ to embrace the statistical aspects of our field.
 
 * Be competent with every tool available to you.
 * Always assume there is a better way to complete a given task.
-
-## Incentives
-
-I strongly oppose any project-based incentive structure for estimators.
-Such a structure is at odds with the [[purpose-of-construction-estimating]],
-and is an example of a [perverse incentive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive).