vault backup: 2026-03-06 15:34:44

heuristics.md

@@ -23,13 +23,27 @@ one can closely approximate small dimensions,
 even without the proper tools.
 
 It is tempting to believe that heuristics are not ideal,
-that the most accurate method ought to be preferred.
-
-%%
-even using a ruler is a heuristic,
+that the most accurate method ought to be preferred,
+but the most accurate method is rarely practical.
+Afterall, even using a ruler is a heuristic,
 subject to the tool's tolerance
 and reliant on its proper use.
-%%
+
+The suitability of a model
+is dependent on the purpose of the measurement.
+To determine the width of dimensional lumber,
+for example, to determine if a board is a 2x4 or a 2x6,
+the rule of thumb is perfectly suitable,
+and a micrometer would be silly.
+
+> [!quote] George E. P. Box, British statistician
+> All models are wrong, but some are useful.[^1]
+
+[^1]: > [!quote] [[box-et-al_1987_empirical-model-building#The Use of Approximating Functions]] 
+    > The fact that the polynomial is an approximation
+    > does not necessarily detract from its usefulness
+    > because all models are approximations.
+    > Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
 
 ## Realism vs. Instrumentalism
 
@@ -47,12 +61,3 @@ is to _forecast as accurately as possible_.
 
 Realism is noble, granted,
 but instrumentalism is far more practical.
-
-> [!quote] George E. P. Box, British statistician
-> All models are wrong, but some are useful.[^1]
-
-[^1]: > [!quote] [[box_1987_empirical-model-building#The Use of Approximating Functions]] 
-    > The fact that the polynomial is an approximation
-    > does not necessarily detract from its usefulness
-    > because all models are approximations.
-    > Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.