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macgregor_1994_judgemental-decomposition.md

@@ -301,36 +301,36 @@ and the probability that their answer would be within 10% of the true value.
 > * Population in the U.S.
 > * Proportion of population that immigrated to U.S.
 > * Percentage of U.S immigrants from Argentina
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 > ##### Circulation of TV Guide
 >
 > * Households in the U.S.
 > * Proportion of households with a TV
 > * Proportion of households with a TV receiving TV Guide
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 > ##### Circumference of 50¢ coin
 >
 > * Diameter in inches of a 50¢ coin
 > * Number of pieces of string the length of the diameter needed to wrap around circumference
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 > ##### Bushels of wheat
 >
 > * Population of the world
 > * Number of bushels of wheat consumed per person per year
 > * Proportion of wheat wasted per year
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 > ##### Bank failures in 1933
 >
 > * Current population of the U.S.
 > * Population of U.S. in 1933 as a proportion of current population
 > * Number of customers for a typical bank
 > * Proportion of banks failed in 1933
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 > ##### U.S. presidents
 >
 > * Number of years U.S. has had presidents
 > * Number of years the average president holds office
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 > ##### Men's pants
 >
 > * Number of men in the U.S.
@@ -338,20 +338,20 @@ and the probability that their answer would be within 10% of the true value.
 > * Number of women in the U.S.
 > * Number of pairs of men's pants the average woman buys each year
 > * Proportion of men's pants manufactured in the U.S. that are sold to U.S. customers
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 > ##### Athletic shoes
 >
 > * Population of the U.S.
 > * Proportion of the population that wears athletic shoes
 > * Pairs of athletic shoes each wearer buys per year
 > * Proportion of athletic shoes manufactured in U.S. that are sold to U.S. customers
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 > ##### Auto accidents
 >
 > * Number of people in the U.S. of driving age
 > * Proportion of people of driving age who drive
 > * Number of accidents the average driver has per year
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 > ##### Area of U.S.
 >
 > * Distance in miles from San Francisco, CA to Washington, D.C.
@@ -557,7 +557,7 @@ In practical problems, of course, one could simply use the actual value.
 In their study of decomposition, Henrion et al. (1993) gave the U.S. population value to the subjects.
 
 > ##### Fig. 1. Calibration of probability assessments that estimated answer is within 10% of true answer.
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 > %% ![[figure_1.jpeg]] %%
 
 The issue of 'how extreme is extreme' has not been resolved.