From e0dfe9bd6efb98579506bac1a3b90f62faf91bfe Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Mon, 27 Apr 2026 17:01:42 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-04-27 17:01:41 --- README.md | 4 +- convex-hull.md | 3 +- decrease-in-sigma.md | 9 +- functional-estimating.md | 3 +- game-theory.md | 7 +- geometry.md | 7 ++ hilltop-gardens.md | 2 + monte-carlo-methods.md | 5 +- periodic/daily/2026-04-27.md | 10 +++ realization.md | 3 +- sigmoid-functions.md | 7 +- ...al-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md | 1 - statistical-modeling.md | 4 +- statistical-significance.md | 9 +- timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md | 10 ++- timestamped/2025-11-06_18-12-00.md | 12 +++ timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md | 14 +++- timestamped/2026-04-23_10-01-40.md | 10 ++- timestamped/2026-04-27_10-05-24.md | 23 +++++ timestamped/2026-04-27_12-19-33.md | 23 +++++ timestamped/2026-04-27_12-43-54.md | 25 ++++++ timestamped/2026-04-27_12-56-35.md | 83 +++++++++++++++++++ 22 files changed, 244 insertions(+), 30 deletions(-) create mode 100644 geometry.md create mode 100644 periodic/daily/2026-04-27.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-27_10-05-24.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-27_12-19-33.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-27_12-43-54.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-04-27_12-56-35.md diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 7f87dc5..1ea8e03 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -12,8 +12,8 @@ tags: --- # zmVault -This note concerns the meta-formatting of this repository. -For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]]. +> This note concerns the meta-formatting of this repository. +> For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]]. ## Syntax diff --git a/convex-hull.md b/convex-hull.md index 0b72692..b0dbca8 100644 --- a/convex-hull.md +++ b/convex-hull.md @@ -1,9 +1,8 @@ --- +title: Convex Hull tags: - authorship/other-for-now - - topic/math - type/encyclopedia-entry -title: Convex Hull --- # Convex Hull diff --git a/decrease-in-sigma.md b/decrease-in-sigma.md index 46830ab..271d4b5 100644 --- a/decrease-in-sigma.md +++ b/decrease-in-sigma.md @@ -2,11 +2,18 @@ title: Decrease in Sigma tags: - destiny/uncertain - - topic/math/statistics - type/encyclopedia-entry --- # Decrease in Sigma +%% +relevant to [[statistics]]: + +graphs intended to visually demonstrate +a decrease in [[uncertainty]] +for a random variable represented by a probability distribution. +%% + ## Normal PDF ```tikz diff --git a/functional-estimating.md b/functional-estimating.md index 6b45ad7..a17f1f2 100644 --- a/functional-estimating.md +++ b/functional-estimating.md @@ -2,7 +2,6 @@ tags: - destiny/uncertain - topic/estimating - - topic/math - type/idea - authorship/llm title: Functional Estimating @@ -13,7 +12,7 @@ title: Functional Estimating This note is LLM output intended to illustrate the problem of [[uncertainty]] in [[construction-estimating]] -using mathematical concepts and notation. +using [[math]] concepts and notation. %% Suppose a function diff --git a/game-theory.md b/game-theory.md index 70d8d62..2516e33 100644 --- a/game-theory.md +++ b/game-theory.md @@ -1,12 +1,17 @@ --- title: Game Theory tags: - - topic/math - topic/strategy - type/encyclopedia --- # Game Theory +%% +[[math]] subdiscipline? + +determine optimal or most likely [[strategy]] +%% + ## Domains * [[auction-theory]] diff --git a/geometry.md b/geometry.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e3877f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/geometry.md @@ -0,0 +1,7 @@ +--- +title: Geometry +tags: [] +--- +# Geometry + +[[math]] diff --git a/hilltop-gardens.md b/hilltop-gardens.md index ce08200..65e67c5 100644 --- a/hilltop-gardens.md +++ b/hilltop-gardens.md @@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ up: "[[conest-projects]]" --- # Hilltop Gardens +[[pdi-building-types#Garden Style]] + 6 buildings + clubhouse 3 building types diff --git a/monte-carlo-methods.md b/monte-carlo-methods.md index 5377501..fd5ee0e 100644 --- a/monte-carlo-methods.md +++ b/monte-carlo-methods.md @@ -1,13 +1,16 @@ --- tags: - status/draft - - topic/math - topic/risk - type/encyclopedia-entry title: Monte Carlo Methods --- # Monte Carlo Methods +%% +relevant to [[statistics]] +%% + > [!quote] [Monte Carlo methods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) > Monte Carlo methods or Monte Carlo experiments, > are a broad class of computational algorithms diff --git a/periodic/daily/2026-04-27.md b/periodic/daily/2026-04-27.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d152f88 --- /dev/null +++ b/periodic/daily/2026-04-27.md @@ -0,0 +1,10 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-27 +title: 2026-04-27 +tags: [] +weekly: "[[2026w18]]" +monthly: "[[2026-04]]" +quarterly: "[[2026q2]]" +previous: "[[2026-04-26]]" +--- +# 2026-04-27 diff --git a/realization.md b/realization.md index ad3ef7a..da8ee24 100644 --- a/realization.md +++ b/realization.md @@ -1,7 +1,6 @@ --- title: Realization -tags: - - topic/math/statistics +tags: [] --- # Realization diff --git a/sigmoid-functions.md b/sigmoid-functions.md index 3ad5ba9..435aa1b 100644 --- a/sigmoid-functions.md +++ b/sigmoid-functions.md @@ -1,14 +1,13 @@ --- -tags: - - topic/math - - type/encyclopedia-entry title: Sigmoid Functions +tags: + - type/encyclopedia-entry --- # Sigmoid Functions ![[sigmoid-function-example.excalidraw]] -$f'(x)$ is a **sigmoid** function. +$f'(x)$ is a **sigmoid** [[function]]. A sigmoid function compresses a function with infinite range to (0,1) diff --git a/statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md b/statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md index 1ebf198..3bf1ad2 100644 --- a/statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md +++ b/statistical-modeling-for-construction-estimating.md @@ -3,7 +3,6 @@ title: Statistical Modeling for Construction Estimating tags: - topic/construction - topic/estimating - - topic/math/statistics - type/cross-topic --- # Statistical Modeling for Construction Estimating diff --git a/statistical-modeling.md b/statistical-modeling.md index f0f69a3..dff9677 100644 --- a/statistical-modeling.md +++ b/statistical-modeling.md @@ -1,11 +1,13 @@ --- title: Statistical Modeling tags: - - topic/math/statistics - type/encyclopedia-entry --- # Statistical Modeling +**Statistical modeling** +uses [[statistics]] to forecast uncertain events + Bayesian inference is a method of **statistical inference**, the practice of analyzing and describing diff --git a/statistical-significance.md b/statistical-significance.md index 47552e2..9802732 100644 --- a/statistical-significance.md +++ b/statistical-significance.md @@ -1,12 +1,13 @@ --- +title: Statistical Significance tags: - authorship/other-for-now - - topic/math/statistics - - type/encyclopedia -title: Statistical Significance + - type/encyclopedia-entry --- # Statistical Significance +In [[statistics]] + > [!quote] [Statistical significance - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance) > In statistical hypothesis testing, > a result has statistical significance @@ -21,7 +22,7 @@ title: Statistical Significance > is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, > given that the null hypothesis is true. > The result is said to be statistically significant, -> by the standards of the study, when $p \leq \alpha$ +> by the standards of the study, when $p \leq \alpha$... > > The significance level for a study > is chosen before data collection, diff --git a/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md b/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md index 78b87c8..e4df39b 100644 --- a/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2025-07-18_00-00-00.md @@ -1,15 +1,19 @@ --- id: 2025-07-18T00:00:00-0400 title: 2025-07-18 ??:??:?? -tags: - - topic/construction - - topic/estimating +tags: [] daily: "[[2025-07-18]]" --- # 2025-07-18 ??:??:?? ## Estimating Isn't Engineering +%% +Anecdote criticizing the common preference for [[information]] +in [[construction-estimating]], +or maybe the common frustration when it isn't provided. +%% + A peer recently expressed frustration to me about the declining quality of construction drawings, specifically how systems are often missing details diff --git a/timestamped/2025-11-06_18-12-00.md b/timestamped/2025-11-06_18-12-00.md index 9df1773..a78357f 100644 --- a/timestamped/2025-11-06_18-12-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2025-11-06_18-12-00.md @@ -12,6 +12,18 @@ daily: "[[2025-11-06]]" ## "Bad Bid Practice" +%% +Anecdote criticizing the common adversarial model +of subcontractor-GC relations +(or more generally contractor-customer) +in [[construction-contracting]]. +My position is that +deliberately hiding information from the customer +(lacking [[transparency]] in interactions) +always costs the contractor +more than they stand to gain from it. +%% + I might be reprimanded for the things I've said about deceptive bid practices were I to repeat them to the wrong person, but I can't, in good conscience, take them back. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md b/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md index df3a76d..f88d97a 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-01-30_16-29-00.md @@ -1,12 +1,16 @@ --- id: 2026-01-30T16:29:00-0500 title: 2026-01-30 16:29:?? -tags: - - topic/math/statistics +tags: [] daily: "[[2026-01-30]]" --- # 2026-01-30 16:29:?? +## New Statistics Concepts + +[[statistics]] topics researched while reading +[[hubbard_2025_project-management]]: + ### Laplace's Rule of Succession (LRS) > [!info] @@ -20,7 +24,11 @@ $$ \frac{1+m}{2+n} $$ -### Rule of Five +### "Rule of Five" + +> Hubbard et al. speak of this "rule" +> as if it's well known by that name, +> but I can't corroborate that. The probability that any given sample is above the median is 50%. The probability that the minimum and maximum values of $n$ samples diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-23_10-01-40.md b/timestamped/2026-04-23_10-01-40.md index dc82085..fc09838 100644 --- a/timestamped/2026-04-23_10-01-40.md +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-23_10-01-40.md @@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ daily: "[[2026-04-23]]" Note extensive emergency power provisions verify control wiring for generator to ATS + #### Lighting HR's count of circuits, control zones in takeoff notes @@ -36,6 +37,7 @@ extended light layouts ASL Column 2 with adjustments Site Labor +50% + #### Telecom Backbone #### Medium Voltage @@ -45,6 +47,7 @@ Medium voltage cabling downstream of #### Underground Runs need rigid 90's for PVC runs 200ft and above + > horizontal? vertical? both? #### Fixture Labor @@ -53,13 +56,14 @@ Tape light: 1 hour per 6 feet snap together linear: 1 hour per 5 feet -##### Center Bar Fixture +##### Center Bar Fixture assuming each crystal is an individual fixture over 5000 crystals 80 circuits -A-GAM-442 +Arch set A-GAM-442 + ##### Dragon Fixture 1000 hours @@ -75,6 +79,7 @@ or "Standalone" with Network Bridges. #### DAS Sold Design Build + #### Historicals Want to know @@ -97,4 +102,3 @@ Extra cost for facade lighting install 250,000 "Go to 150k" - diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-27_10-05-24.md b/timestamped/2026-04-27_10-05-24.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..97ddd86 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-27_10-05-24.md @@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-27T10:05:24-0400 +title: 2026-04-27 10:05:24 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-04-27]]" +--- +# 2026-04-27 10:05:24 + +## Minimum Wire Size for Small Garage Buildings + +Relevant to [[electrical-takeoff]] and [[fixtures-takeoff]]: + +[[hilltop-gardens]] has 3 separate garage buildings, +each with 12 isolated bays. +The buildings are about 70ft long, +with all runs less than 100ft. + +I asked [[joel-jansen]] if it would be necessary +to use minimum 10 AWG +as is [[conest]] standard +for [[pdi-breakdowns#Bid Item Garage|Garage]]. +He said it would not be, +and confirmed 12 AWG is acceptable in this case. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-19-33.md b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-19-33.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c29c502 --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-19-33.md @@ -0,0 +1,23 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-27T12:19:33-0400 +title: 2026-04-27 12:19:33 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-04-27]]" +--- +# 2026-04-27 12:19:33 + +It is common in [[construction-contracting]] +when offering [[value-engineering]] options +or deductive [[change-orders]] to the customer +to offer deducts less than your estimated value +for the scope to be deducted. + +I'm sure in the wider industry +the practice not maliciously motivated, +only intended to cover the cost of estimating, +but this is rarely communicated to junior estimators +and never to the customer. +In my own experience with it +while with my previous employer, +it was only ever justified as +"because we can, because they don't know". diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-43-54.md b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-43-54.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..235b5eb --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-43-54.md @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-27T12:43:54-0400 +title: 2026-04-27 12:43:54 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-04-27]]" +--- +# 2026-04-27 12:43:54 + +## Voltage Drop for ConEst + +Continuing a recent conversation +I've been having with [[joel-jansen]] +on [[voltage-drop]], +both ideally and for application in [[conest]], +Joel brought Bill Swan with Estimating Solutions +over to my desk. +Bill said that when he is calculating voltage drop +he doesn't the ubiquitous "Voltage Drop Calc 2011.xlsx" +which uses a simple DC calculation, +he uses [[pdi-vdc]]'s calculator, +which is based on AC resistance and reactance. + +I showed them my own calculator, +which also has AC capability +The difference \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-56-35.md b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-56-35.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b55a09f --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-04-27_12-56-35.md @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +--- +id: 2026-04-27T12:56:35-0400 +title: 2026-04-27 12:56:35 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-04-27]]" +--- +# 2026-04-27 12:56:35 + +## Virginia Live! Internal Review + +[[virginia-live-casino-and-hotel]] + +Underfloor power is Reloc. +Customer is curious if it would be more cost effective to use MC. + +Objective is to discuss closeout mainly: +quotes and subs. + +FF&E +Concern that all fixtures are captured + +"add a line for aiming and testing" +1 week (80 hours) + +Shift rate +"in the past we've paid a little more for night work, +but nothing crazy" + +$2,500 per day scaffold + +### Site Services + +Ditch witches for most excavation + +idea floated to buy equipment rather than rent +bobcat +wire puller +hydraulic bender + +Do we own dewatering? +pretty sure yes + +### MV Terminations + +No one at PDI can perform MV terms +so they must be subbed out + +worst case $300k + +9 terms $60k + +to be quoted by Ops + +### Testing + +primary injection testing + +NETA testing + +to be quoted by Ops + +### Rigging + +Ops quoted $85k to take one generator off the truck. + +to be quoted by Ops + +### Burden + +PTO not included in burden +because it is not charged to the job + +### Admin Housing + +Ops paying $4,500 for 6-bed + +### Composite Cleanup + +terms in contract + +### Permits + +to be quoted by Ops