diff --git a/.obsidian/graph.json b/.obsidian/graph.json index 2138ebd..4214521 100644 --- a/.obsidian/graph.json +++ b/.obsidian/graph.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "collapse-filter": false, "search": "", - "showTags": true, + "showTags": false, "showAttachments": false, "hideUnresolved": true, "showOrphans": true, diff --git a/.obsidian/plugins/excalibrain/data.json b/.obsidian/plugins/excalibrain/data.json index 99fa467..f64442f 100644 --- a/.obsidian/plugins/excalibrain/data.json +++ b/.obsidian/plugins/excalibrain/data.json @@ -228,7 +228,12 @@ "n": {}, "Next": {} }, - "navigationHistory": [], + "navigationHistory": [ + "README.md", + "systems.md", + "electrical.md", + "lighting-controls.md" + ], "allowOntologySuggester": true, "ontologySuggesterParentTrigger": "::p", "ontologySuggesterChildTrigger": "::c", diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 4ad7f88..9779c0a 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -12,5 +12,10 @@ tags: > This note on the meta-formatting of this repository. > For contents, prose conventions, etc. see [[this-notebook]]. -* [Obsidian syntax](https://help.obsidian.md/) -* [Markdown Oxide syntax](https://oxide.md/) \ No newline at end of file +## Syntax + +Notes are written in [Obsidian-flavored markdown](https://help.obsidian.md/), +which is partially reimplemented by [Markdown Oxide](https://oxide.md/) +for use in editors other than Obsidian. + +Novel syntax implemented by Obsidian plugins should be avoided. diff --git a/excalibrain.md b/excalibrain.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e690fc --- /dev/null +++ b/excalibrain.md @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +--- + +excalidraw-plugin: parsed +excalidraw-default-mode: view +excalidraw-export-dark: false +excalidraw-export-transparent: false +excalidraw-linkbutton-opacity: 0.3 +excalidraw-onload-script: "app.plugins.plugins[`excalibrain`].start(ea.targetView.leaf);" + +tags: [excalidraw] + +--- + +# Text Elements +Open a document in another pane and click it to get started. + +For the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane' +in Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'. ^4mylk7KK + +%% +# Drawing +```json +{ + "type": "excalidraw", + "version": 2, + "source": "https://excalidraw.com", + "elements": [ + { + "type": "text", + "version": 1, + "versionNonce": 423577018, + "isDeleted": false, + "id": "4mylk7KK", + "fillStyle": "hachure", + "strokeWidth": 1, + "strokeStyle": "solid", + "roughness": 1, + "opacity": 100, + "angle": 0, + "x": 0, + "y": 0, + "strokeColor": "white", + "backgroundColor": "transparent", + "width": 703, + "height": 96, + "seed": 4429, + "groupIds": [], + "strokeSharpness": "sharp", + "boundElements": [], + "updated": 1650784785611, + "link": null, + "locked": false, + "fontSize": 20, + "fontFamily": 3, + "text": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'.", + "rawText": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'.", + "baseline": 91, + "textAlign": "center", + "verticalAlign": "top", + "containerId": null, + "originalText": "Open a document in another pane and click it to get started.\n\nFor the best experience enable 'Open in adjacent pane'\nin Excalidraw settings under 'Links and Transclusion'." + } + ], + "appState": { + "theme": "dark", + "viewBackgroundColor": "hsl(208, 80%, 23%)", + "currentItemStrokeColor": "#000000", + "currentItemBackgroundColor": "transparent", + "currentItemFillStyle": "hachure", + "currentItemStrokeWidth": 2, + "currentItemStrokeStyle": "solid", + "currentItemRoughness": 1, + "currentItemOpacity": 100, + "currentItemFontFamily": 1, + "currentItemFontSize": 16, + "currentItemTextAlign": "left", + "currentItemStrokeSharpness": "sharp", + "currentItemStartArrowhead": null, + "currentItemEndArrowhead": "arrow", + "currentItemLinearStrokeSharpness": "round", + "gridSize": null, + "colorPalette": {} + }, + "files": {} +} +``` +%% diff --git a/estimating-workflow.md b/full-takeoff.md similarity index 88% rename from estimating-workflow.md rename to full-takeoff.md index 6289456..8fa1641 100644 --- a/estimating-workflow.md +++ b/full-takeoff.md @@ -4,10 +4,8 @@ aliases: [] tags: - guide - occupational -friends: - - project-setup --- -# Estimating Workflow +# Full Takeoff ## Sequence diff --git a/perfect-information.md b/perfect-information.md deleted file mode 100644 index 59deba3..0000000 --- a/perfect-information.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,29 +0,0 @@ ---- -id: -aliases: [] -tags: - - risk ---- -# Perfect Information - -In [[strategy]], perfect information is hypothetical information -that would eliminate some defined [[uncertainty]]. - -## Expected Value of Perfect Information - -Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) -is the price that one would be willing to pay -in order to gain access to perfect information. - -The perceived _value_ of decreased uncertainty -must be weighed against its _cost_. - -This concept provides the basis for the solution of one or more [[open-problems-in-estimating]]. -To reduce [[risk]] in [[construction-estimating]], -an organization pays in estimator hours. -These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits, -however the greater cost is the opportunity cost -of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project. - -In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput -far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids. diff --git a/risk-oriented-estimating.md b/risk-oriented-estimating.md index e878fc5..1648d82 100644 --- a/risk-oriented-estimating.md +++ b/risk-oriented-estimating.md @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Risk-Oriented Estimating (ROE), is a methodology for [[construction-estimating]] * prioritizes estimating tasks, * determines necessary [[estimating-detail]] -ROE leans heavily on [[perfect-information]], +ROE leans heavily on [[uncertainty#Value of Information]], which challenges the natural tendency to shy from uncertainty with the reality of the cost of certainty. @@ -41,16 +41,17 @@ ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_. ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]] given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]]. -## EVPI Takeoff +### EVI Takeoff -%% +Expected value of information (EVI) -## Scratch +### Takeoff Optimization -Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) +For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary, +optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff, +and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff. Count-based takeoff speed increases with count. -%% Optimizing the takeoff process means: @@ -62,6 +63,13 @@ Optimizing the takeoff process means: > It appears that similar efforts have already been made here, > their success being a matter of perspective. -> [!note] Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description) -> Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience, -> but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names will inevitably _treat them as descriptive_. +#### Naming Conventions (Use Case vs. Description) + +Naming by use case is intuitive for those without estimating or field experience, +but has the side effect that those accustomed to the names +will inevitably _treat them as descriptive_. + +| Use Case | Description | +| ------------------- | ------------- | +| Hi-Hat | Daisy-Chain | +| Furnished By Others | Rough-In Only | diff --git a/uncertainty.md b/uncertainty.md index 37cba88..95ea00b 100644 --- a/uncertainty.md +++ b/uncertainty.md @@ -1,14 +1,57 @@ --- id: uncertainty aliases: [] -tags: +tags: - risk --- # Uncertainty The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes. -## Aleatory Uncertainty +## Information + +In statistical inference and [[strategy]], +**information** is the resolution of uncertainty. + +### Value of Information + +> [!quote] +> **Value of information** (VOI or VoI) +> is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay +> for information prior to making a decision. + +It is the value of the reduction in uncertainty +that the information provides. + +### Expected Value of Perfect Information + +Expected value of perfect information (EVPI) +is the price that one would be willing to pay +in order to gain access to perfect information. + +> [!info] Perfect Information +> Perfect information is hypothetical information +> that would eliminate all uncertainty. + +The perceived _value_ of decreased uncertainty +must be weighed against its _cost_. + +#### In Construction Estimating + +This concept provides the basis for the solution +of one or more [[open-problems-in-estimating]]. +To reduce [[risk]] in [[construction-estimating]], +an organization pays in estimator hours. +These hours have a direct cost in salary and benefits, +however the greater cost is the opportunity cost +of tying up an estimator who could otherwise be starting a new project. + +In many cases, the utility of doubled throughput +far outweighs the increased risk of individual bids. + +## Types of Uncertainty + +### Aleatory Uncertainty > [!info] Also Known As > * statistical uncertainty @@ -17,10 +60,11 @@ The term "uncertainty" refers to the possibility of multiple outcomes. Aleatory uncertainty is inherent randomness in data that can't be explained away. -## Epistemic Uncertainty +### Epistemic Uncertainty > [!info] Also Known As > * systematic uncertainty > * model uncertainty -Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge. +Epistemic uncertainty is that which arises from a lack of knowledge, +and can be eliminated with access to [[#information]].