vault backup: 2025-12-17 17:03:56
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@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
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id: risk-oriented-estimating
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aliases: []
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tags:
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- destiny/permanent/entry-point
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- destiny/fleeting
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- status/incomplete
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- topic/estimating
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- topic/risk
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@@ -37,36 +37,6 @@ of critiquing common practice.
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%%
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## Prioritizing Tasks
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ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
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### Estimating as Risk Mitigation
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* reduce risk of wasted estimation effort due to bid loss
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(prefer lower bid)
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* reduce risk of project overrun
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(prefer higher bid)
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Estimating resources are allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
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## Determining Necessary Detail
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ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
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given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
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### EVI Takeoff
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Expected value of information (EVI)
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### Takeoff Optimization
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For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary,
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optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff,
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and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff.
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See [[optimal-estimating-patterns]] for more.
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## Potential Objections
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Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded.
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