vault backup: 2025-12-17 17:03:56

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id: risk-oriented-estimating
aliases: []
tags:
- destiny/permanent/entry-point
- destiny/fleeting
- status/incomplete
- topic/estimating
- topic/risk
@@ -37,36 +37,6 @@ of critiquing common practice.
%%
## Prioritizing Tasks
ROE prioritizes estimating tasks by their contribution to _cost certainty_.
### Estimating as Risk Mitigation
* reduce risk of wasted estimation effort due to bid loss
(prefer lower bid)
* reduce risk of project overrun
(prefer higher bid)
Estimating resources are allocated by Return on Mitigation (RoM)
## Determining Necessary Detail
ROE determines the appropriate level of [[estimating-detail]]
given an organization's [[risk#Risk Tolerance]].
### EVI Takeoff
Expected value of information (EVI)
### Takeoff Optimization
For systems where EVI analysis determines manual takeoff is still necessary,
optimizations can be made to decrease the required effort of takeoff,
and thus the opportunity cost of takeoff.
See [[optimal-estimating-patterns]] for more.
## Potential Objections
Objections to the use of historical data in new estimates are not unfounded.