From fd46292afc92de18f19be4e668a3deccd99bd523 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Zane Meyers Date: Thu, 14 May 2026 23:58:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] vault backup: 2026-05-14 23:58:39 --- hanlons-razor.md | 21 ++++++++++++ my-favorite-quotes.md | 23 +------------- occams-razor.md | 18 +++++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-14_17-57-07.md | 51 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-14_19-16-23.md | 44 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-14_22-02-35.md | 31 ++++++++++++++++++ timestamped/2026-05-14_22-43-05.md | 44 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ tools.md | 38 ++++++++++++++++++++++ 8 files changed, 248 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) create mode 100644 hanlons-razor.md create mode 100644 occams-razor.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-14_17-57-07.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-14_19-16-23.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-14_22-02-35.md create mode 100644 timestamped/2026-05-14_22-43-05.md create mode 100644 tools.md diff --git a/hanlons-razor.md b/hanlons-razor.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2654e9f --- /dev/null +++ b/hanlons-razor.md @@ -0,0 +1,21 @@ +--- +title: "Hanlon's Razor" +tags: [] +--- +# Hanlon's Razor + +[Hanlon's razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor) + +> "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." + +## Etymology + +The identity of the eponymous Hanlon is uncertain. +I find the attribution to Heinlein most compelling +on account of I don't know how to pronounce Heinlein either. + +## Trivia + +I first heard of Douglas Hubbard while reading the Wikipedia article for Hanlon's razor, +which at the time featured a quote from [[hubbard_2020_failure]]. +Based on the quote alone I bought a copy. diff --git a/my-favorite-quotes.md b/my-favorite-quotes.md index 2fc1a57..5bf04c0 100644 --- a/my-favorite-quotes.md +++ b/my-favorite-quotes.md @@ -9,27 +9,6 @@ up: "[[my-interests]]" --- # Favorite Quotes -## About Tools - -> [!quote] John Culkin, commonly attributed to Marshall McLuhan -> We shape our tools and, thereafter, our tools shape us. - -> [!quote] _[[thoreau_1854_walden|Walden]]_, Henry David Thoreau -> Men have become the tools of their tools. - -> [!quote] Jeff Duntemann -> A good tool improves the way you work. -> A great tool improves the way you think. - -> [!quote] Alan Watts -> We are sick with a fascination -> for the useful tools of names and numbers, -> of symbols, signs, conceptions, and ideas. - -> [!quote] Paul Arden -> If you get stuck, draw with a different pen. -> Change your tools; it may free your thinking. - ## About Process Optimization ### "It Takes an Engineer to Build a Bridge that Barely Stands" @@ -110,4 +89,4 @@ and easily interpreted as an [optimization problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik > [!quote] Hofstadter's law > It always takes longer than you expect, -> even when you take into account Hofstadter's law. \ No newline at end of file +> even when you take into account Hofstadter's law. diff --git a/occams-razor.md b/occams-razor.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fa0c165 --- /dev/null +++ b/occams-razor.md @@ -0,0 +1,18 @@ +--- +title: "Occam's Razor" +tags: [] +--- +# Occam's Razor + +> [!info] Also Known As +> * the principle of parsimony +> * the law of parsimony + +Recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. + +Attributed to William of Ockham, 14th-century English philosopher and theologian. + +> _Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem_ +> ("Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity") + +> "Of two competing theories, the simpler explanation is to be preferred." diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-14_17-57-07.md b/timestamped/2026-05-14_17-57-07.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..963556b --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-14_17-57-07.md @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-14T17:57:07-0400 +title: 2026-05-14 17:57:07 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-14]]" +--- +# 2026-05-14 17:57:07 + +In my years of using [[accubid|Accubid]] nearly every work day +I've always longed for good analogies for using the wrong [[tools|tool]] for the job. +I found one that could almost be said to be in common use: +"Hitting a nail with the handle of the hammer" +But the phrase is not ideal for my purpose. +It suggests that the tool _can_ be used to achieve the objective, +but that it is being used suboptimally. +"Driving a screw with a hammer" +which I came up with, though surely not for the first time, +is more appropriate for Accubid and its use in [[construction-estimating]]. +It suggests the tool _can not_ be used to achieve the objective, +but that it may be possible to use it to _mimic_ success. +If you manage to drive a screw with a hammer +you have still failed to use it as a fastener. + +Despite its name, +Accubid is clearly not meant for bidding. +Bidding requires an appreciation of uncertainty and risk +that naive [[decrease-in-sigma|zero-sigma]] "estimating" does nothing to assist. +Estimators have to do that part, _the important part_, in their head. + +It ought to be glaringly obvious to Trimble +that their software is not being used as intended. +The use of items to be budgetary of other item +which are not known or not present in the database +is perhaps universal, +even though this false specificity is detrimental +to both estimating and operations. +Briefly sheathing [[hanlons-razor|Hanlon's razor]], +I believe Trimble may be _deliberately avoiding_ respect for uncertainty, despite demand, +because to support price uncertainty would call into question +the utility of their biggest earners and up-sells. +Tra-Ser is the industry gold standard you can't live without, +but what good is a single price, which isn't even guaranteed for purchase _today_, +compared to a range estimated for the lifetime of the project? +If you believe we live in Trimble's fantasy world +where you can buy out a bid BOM as-is +then they can sell you a subscription for Spectrum, their ERP software. + +To really beat this analogy to death, +Trimble is has a monopoly on hammers +so they'd rather convince us we need a hammer +than sell us the screwdriver we _do_ need. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-14_19-16-23.md b/timestamped/2026-05-14_19-16-23.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a62649c --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-14_19-16-23.md @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-14T19:16:23-0400 +title: 2026-05-14 19:16:23 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-14]]" +--- +# 2026-05-14 19:16:23 + +After [[jared-defanti|Jared]] introduced me to +[complex adaptive systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system) +and [[2004_gribbin_deep-simplicity]] +I told him about [[hubbard_2020_failure]]'s response +to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]]'s main thesis: +That Taleb's warning not to draw conclusions from historical data +is itself a conclusion based on historical data. +Even though I butchered the retelling +Jared laughed out loud, +the way I did when reading the response for the first time. + +In the absence of reputable sources, +belief in Taleb's pessimistic view of forecasting +requires one to _want_ for it to be true. +I think my laughter was nervous, +nervous that a position seemed so compelling +until reframed only slightly, +at which point it became ridiculous to consider. + +*** + +I realize now that I totally misunderstood the direction Jared was going. +The Google AI summary of _Deep Simplicity_ was this (emphasis added): + +> Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity by John Gribbin +> explains chaos and complexity theory, +> arguing that seemingly random, complex systems +> (like weather or stock markets) +> arise from simple, underlying laws, +> _making the universe more orderly than it appears_. + +I skimmed the summary +and misread the emphasized text +as "making the universe appear more orderly than it is". +I was primed to disagree because we had been talking about Taleb. +It turns out Gribbin would disagree with Taleb too. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-02-35.md b/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-02-35.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56c635e --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-02-35.md @@ -0,0 +1,31 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-14T22:02:35-0400 +title: 2026-05-14 22:02:35 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-14]]" +--- +# 2026-05-14 22:02:35 + +Wringing the juice out of my hammered screw analogy from [[2026-05-14_17-57-07]], +I've also been thinking about my reputation as "the [[ms-excel|Excel]] guy" +which followed me from [[ace-electric-inc|Ace]]. + +I sympathize, certainly the best tool for the job is the best one you have, +but at some point in hammering screws +you really have to just buck up and make the trip to Lowe's. + +> [!question] +> You'd tell me if one of these notes affected your opinion of me, +> wouldn't you? + +I can confidently say that every time I've watched someone do my job more efficiently[^1] than me +I have immediately made efforts to incorporate their improvements into my process. +Absent pressing personal matters or imminent retirement +it's difficult to imagine how the pain of learning something new +could outrank the pain that ought to come with knowing +that more could be done with your limited time. +Or, more compelling yet, in [[construction-estimating]], +the pain of spending more time on a single project. +I would do almost anything to be able to move on even just a day faster. + +[^1]: Not faster, that's easy. I'm slow as hell. diff --git a/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-43-05.md b/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-43-05.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f74515a --- /dev/null +++ b/timestamped/2026-05-14_22-43-05.md @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +--- +id: 2026-05-14T22:43:05-0400 +title: 2026-05-14 22:43:05 +tags: [] +daily: "[[2026-05-14]]" +--- +# 2026-05-14 22:43:05 + +I believe [[construction-estimating]] gets its fetish[^1] for **granularity**[^2] +from its proximity to, and significant composition of, +skilled trade workers, and their biased perception of the value of effort. + +[^1]: Fetish is the right word for it if you've ever heard the justifications. + I'll say no more. + +[^2]: Granularity is a great word for it, I got it from [[jared-defanti|Jared]]. + I was calling it _precision_ before, but that's [laden](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/value-laden) + with positive value + where _granularity_ sounds as annoying as it is. + +Generalizing, +if I can do some electrical task to the bare minimum standard in ten hours, +then I can do it meticulously, with an appreciable increase in quality, in fifteen. +Past fifteen hours there is literally nothing more that I can do +that could be argued to add value to the result. + +Back to "bare minimum", +the term has objective meaning in trade work. +Absolute minimum quality is defined by governing codes. + +Contrast with estimating: + +I _can_ complete an estimate for a million dollar project in an hour. +I could reasonably spend ten hours or a hundred on the same project. + +In estimating, minimum quality may be set by internal standards, +but they may be bent or broken for the right job or the right customer. + +> [!summary] +> In skilled trade work, the road ends after the "extra mile". +> +> In estimating, you can't even tell when you're on the extra mile, +> and after you pass it the shit just keeps going, +> and also we're paying for gas in this analogy. diff --git a/tools.md b/tools.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..93ab07f --- /dev/null +++ b/tools.md @@ -0,0 +1,38 @@ +--- +title: Tools +tags: [] +--- +# Tools + +A tool is a _thing_ used to achieve an objective. +Tools may be a physical object like a hand tool or power tool, +a piece of [[software|application software]], +a process, a technique, +or something more conceptual like a way of thinking (paradigm). + +Tools may have multiple uses, +some intended and some not. + +It is well understood that quality and efficiency suffer +when one uses the wrong tool for the job. + +## Quotes + +> [!quote] John Culkin, commonly attributed to Marshall McLuhan +> We shape our tools and, thereafter, our tools shape us. + +> [!quote] _[[thoreau_1854_walden|Walden]]_, Henry David Thoreau +> Men have become the tools of their tools. + +> [!quote] Jeff Duntemann +> A good tool improves the way you work. +> A great tool improves the way you think. + +> [!quote] Alan Watts +> We are sick with a fascination +> for the useful tools of names and numbers, +> of symbols, signs, conceptions, and ideas. + +> [!quote] Paul Arden +> If you get stuck, draw with a different pen. +> Change your tools; it may free your thinking.