---
id: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-0400
title: 2026-04-08 07:42:17
tags:
  - status/draft
date-created: 2026-04-08T07:42:17-04:00
daily: "[[2026-04-08]]"
---
# 2026-04-08 07:42:17

## _HTMAiPM_ Reference Class Forecasting (RCF)

[[hubbard_2025_project-management#Top-down Estimations Reference Class Forecasting]]

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RCF can avoid potentially faulty scaling
(square foot area, number of dwelling/sleeping units)

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> If RCF isn't informative (uniqueness bias)
> then neither is project manager experience.

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> A **loss exceedance curve** can inform how to price a project under estimate uncertainty.
> Contingency can be added to an estimate made with standard methods
> sufficient to lower probability of overrun to 5%, for example.