---
id:
aliases: []
title: _Fooled by Randomness_
tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/complete
  - topic/risk
  - type/media-commentary
---
# _Fooled by Randomness_

This is the commentary companion to [[taleb_2001_fooled-by-randomness]].

## Critiques

### "Logic Without Statistics"

FbR uses few citations,
relying on the strength of Taleb's logic alone, by his own stating.

Taleb argues this strategy is perfectly legitimate, which is _true_,
but it does not follow that it makes for the most robust argument.
In recent editions of the text, Taleb claims that his editors have implored him
to provide figures, graphs, studies, etc. as---_he agrees_---would be expected
for any similar book on statistical phenomena, but he refuses.

I don't find this approach charming at all,
especially considering how critical Taleb is of demagogues.

Juxtaposing FbR with [[hubbard_2020_failure]],
which is a more traditional work of statistical thought,
well researched, and with a thorough bibliography,
Taleb's arguments are considerably less satisfying.
When Hubbard is wrong, it's clear his interpretation is flawed in that instance,
when _Taleb_ is wrong, I question the foundation of all his arguments.
Less politely, I wonder why I'm listening to him just make up justifications
for what he already believed.

### Qualitative Probability

Taleb loses me in the introduction
when he states that he defines _probability_ qualitatively.

[[hubbard_2020_failure]] gives a comprehensive history
of the terms **uncertainty**, **probability**, and **risk**,

Later it's clear he what he means by probability is **uncertainty**.