---
id: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
aliases: []
title: 2026-04-07 07:21:00
tags:
  - authorship/original
  - destiny/permanent
  - status/draft
  - type/periodic/timestamped
daily: "[[2026-04-07]]"
date-created: 2026-04-07T07:21:00-04:00
dg-publish: true
monthly: "[[2026-04]]"
quarterly: "[[2026-Q2]]"
weekly: "[[2026-W15]]"
yearly: "[[2026]]"
---
# 2026-04-07 07:21:00

> [!quote] [[how-to-measure-anything-in-project-management#Conflating Uncertainty with Knowing Nothing]]
> Some objections to providing probability estimates
> seem to be based on the presumption
> that if they don't know something exactly, they know nothing.
> For example, a person might state something like,
> "I cannot estimate a 90% CI for that because I have no idea what that could be."
> They respond as if someone were still asking for some unreasonable precision
> as opposed to whatever range represents their uncertainty,
> however wide that range may be.

Hubbard repeatedly conflates estimates of uncertain events
with personal estimates of trivia questions with certain answers.
These are functionally identical,
but _feel_ very different.
Hubbard could do better to correct this bias.

If you don't know the answer offhand,
imagine it has been lost to time.