---
id: 2026-01-09T14:45:00-0500
title: 2026-01-09 14:45:??
tags:
  - topic/estimating
daily: "[[2026-01-09]]"
---
# 2026-01-09 14:45:??

[[bid-price-modeling]]

Suppose a true cost model,
accounting for all relevant information available at time $t$.

$C(t)$ returns a distribution whose [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter)
decreases with $t$, and $C(0)$ maps to a single value.
$t>0$ is time until the final payment.

> ![250](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Log-normal-pdfs.png/960px-Log-normal-pdfs.png)
>
> Figure: lognormal distributions with the same [location](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Location_parameter)
> varied by [scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale_parameter).