1.3 KiB
id, title, tags, date-created, daily
| id | title | tags | date-created | daily | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02T19:10:14-0400 | 2026-04-02 19:10:14 |
|
2026-04-02T19:10:14-04:00 | 2026-04-02 |
2026-04-02 19:10:14
From a high-level, business proposition perspective construction-estimating is identical in function to stock trading, both typified by expert judgement under uncertainty ... One significant difference despite their similarity is that only in stock trading is it well understood that individual loss is not only inevitable, it is how the strategy works. If you're not losing sometimes you're not assuming enough risk and you're missing out on returns.
Similar sentiments expressed in the context of construction contracting are not popular, and are frequently judged irresponsible.
I believe the tendency to set standards for estimates beyond the optimal level of detail stems from a named cognitive-bias of association or relevance fallacy which leads otherwise rational estimators to the erroneous belief that because construction is physically tangible, risk control is more effective than in markets. This may be related to 2026-04-02_20-41-59#Decomposition Fallacy.